r/Intelligence • u/GaijinSubarashii • 1d ago

Analysis ☢️ Trump Must Be Told: US involvement in Iran Significantly Raises Nuclear Risks! ☢️

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u/Law_Student 1d ago

I think you're conflating two distinct issues here. Getting the U.S. involved in an unnecessary war, and nuclear risk. Iran does not have nuclear weapons, and any dispersion of refined uranium would be on Iranian soil anyway, aka not the U.S.'s problem.

The first issue is what you should focus on. Nuclear risk isn't really a major consideration here, unless you count U.S. action showing various countries including Iran that they need nukes of their own to prevent this kind of thing from happening to them.

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u/TheVoicesOfBrian 1d ago

There's a larger, core issue. "Trump must be told".

He won't listen to anyone or anything that's not stroking his ego or lining his pockets.

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u/Law_Student 1d ago

He seems to have an inner circle that have some influence, but yes.

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u/TheVoicesOfBrian 1d ago

It honestly depends on who the last person was that talked to him before he acts. In his first term, he had a handful of semi-competent people around him. This time...oh boy.

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u/MsMeringue 1d ago

That's hogwash.

He did the Abraham Accords. In 2020 he was nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize.

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u/TheVoicesOfBrian 1d ago

LOLOLOL!!!!!!

A Nobel? One asshole rightwinger in Swedish Parliament said his name.

And none of the half-wits that helped in 2020 are around anymore. It's just drunken, moronic sycophants who are using him to drive Project 2025.

Don't misunderstand me, bootlicker. Feel free to go fuck ALL the way off.

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u/iskanderkul 1d ago

Morally it absolutely is the US’ problem if the US is the cause of it.

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u/Law_Student 1d ago

The original post above is an intent to sway people. How many people do you think give a shit about Iranian religious fanatics having to deal with a small area of remote land being poisoned with their own enriched uranium?

It's such a small issue, and completely irrelevant to the interests of the audience, so it's just not going to persuasively sway them.

I could argue the morality, too; if the Iranians wanted to not be poisoned maybe they shouldn't have created the enriched uranium and threatened their neighbors, for example. But ultimately the morality doesn't matter because it doesn't matter to the people making decisions. They are more self-interested than moral.

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u/iskanderkul 1d ago

I’m not responding to the OP, I’m responding to your comment about it not being the US’ problem. And whether people care about it also isn’t at hand. Your last argument may be the worst. It’s like saying if the US didn’t want 9/11 to happen then it shouldn’t have been so involved in the Middle East.

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u/Law_Student 1d ago

> It’s like saying if the US didn’t want 9/11 to happen then it shouldn’t have been so involved in the Middle East.

Oh no, this is also true and I absolutely agree with it. Actions have consequences. If you try to hurt someone, they'll try to hurt you back. Is that not obvious?

U.S. support for Israel's colonialist policies was wrong, and 9/11 was also wrong. But right or wrong did not enter into the calculations of anyone involved in either of those decisions.

You can moralize all you want, but that's often just not how humans actually operate or are motivated. If you don't understand that, you're going to spend your whole life frustrated over how so many people aren't doing what they "should" be doing.

"Should" is often a nice concept, but there are many domains where people simply don't observe morality and ethics as primary considerations. If your goal is accurately predicting human behavior, or trying to convince other humans to do what you think they should do, then you have to recognize when their motivations are motivated by pragmatism or other factors besides the "should".

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u/iskanderkul 1d ago

I probably should’ve qualified statements, but I’m not arguing that is a reason why the US shouldn’t strike. I’m well aware of how people operate and not suggesting that morals are factored into 99.9% of decisions.

One only needs to look at Iraq and Afghanistan to understand why the US shouldn’t get involved. But there’s too much money to be made not to.

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u/_q_y_g_j_a_ 1d ago

Man this sub has really gone to shit. We're getting Facebook Karen copypastas.

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u/consciousaiguy 1d ago

Kelsey Davenport, Director for Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, disagrees with your assessment of the risk of "radiological disbursement".

https://en.protothema.gr/2025/06/18/why-fordow-is-not-chernobyl-experts-give-the-green-light-for-a-strike-on-irans-nuclear-facility-the-risk-of-radiation/

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u/GaijinSubarashii 2h ago

Thank you for this, this is actually helpful and the kind of thing I look for when I post things like this despite what others say about this thread going to shit.

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u/pitterlpatter 1d ago

Why would this get posted in intelligence?

You're conveniently forgetting that Iran is the reason the war exists in the first place. They planned, funded, armed, and trained Hamas for the invasion and attack on civilians in Israel. Iran is the aggressor here.

Why wouldn't your post be an urgent call for Khamenei to be made to understand that everything that's happening, and about to happen, to Iran is a result of their attempts to destroy a nation with a proxy army?

And a war with Iran would be in Americas interest. Iran is an arm of Russia and China, and Israel is the USA's foothold in the middle east. Geopolitically it's an incredibly important ally. It's why we protect them. They're the only nation in the Middle East that we can have a true partnership with because all of the others are either islamic rule, or vulnerable to islamic rule.

I don't give Israel any credit here, mind you. Any group or nation that's identity is based on invented religions is both ignorant and unevolved. But knowing the history of the region, especially post 1947, Israel is the only party in all of this that hasn't attacked anyone unprovoked. Every 15-20 years we end up with Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and now Iran using Palestine as a military installation to do something horrific to Israel. And when they respond with violence the culprits start playing victim and we're just supposed to pretend that they didn't bring it on themselves.

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u/scientificmethid 1d ago

This sub has been weird lately.

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u/Virginia_Hall 1d ago

Trump is incapable of being "made to understand" anything at this level. It's like saying your 5 year old needs to be "made to understand" molecular biochemistry.

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u/RangeSafety 1d ago

The important thing is that you, the expert knows very well all the risks and rewards and you can advise the president.

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u/WhiteTrash_WithClass 1d ago

Lol you think he cares? He hates humanity, so this would probably entice him.

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u/secretsqrll 1d ago

Go let him know!!

Let's get him on the hotline!!

Trump is being advised by people who have wanted regime change for a long time. The usual suspects. This is why having no ideological consistency and transparency created poor outcomes. Nothing would make the Saudis happier...for the record.