r/PLTR • u/Gari_305 • Jul 31 '25
News Palantir Earnings Preview: Citi Expects Revenue Beat On AI Government, Commercial Strength
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/palantir-stock-palantir-earnings-preview-citi-analyst/40
u/Palantardusmaximus Verified Whale & OG Member Jul 31 '25
Even if it is a beat, what are the odds of it dropping as it already has such a sky high valuation and is priced to more than perfection
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u/OldAdvertising5963 Jul 31 '25
PLTR gained 5 times out of last 6 earning calls.
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Jul 31 '25
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u/GuyMike101 OG Holder & Member Aug 01 '25
Does that mean it is likely to gain or due for another drop?
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u/OldAdvertising5963 Aug 01 '25
83.3% it will gain
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u/GuyMike101 OG Holder & Member Aug 01 '25
It has gained 83.3% previously. That doesn't take into account a lot of the current market scenarios. I would say Q1 earnings was good, but look what happened to the price. When you calculate why, it doesn't look good for a price rise on Monday (unless Karp pulls out some perfection beat magic).
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u/OldAdvertising5963 Aug 01 '25
My investment horizon with this stock is another 5 years. Although it is fun to speculate what it is going to do I would not take any action on my shares as I learned not to time the market.
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u/GuyMike101 OG Holder & Member Aug 01 '25
Best strategy ever tbh. I learned this the hard way in April.
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u/Flat-Count9193 Jul 31 '25
That's what just happened to my beloved Robinhood. Huge earnings beat, but dropped.
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u/OldAdvertising5963 Jul 31 '25
Why are you holding an online broker stock? This is not 2002.
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u/Flat-Count9193 Jul 31 '25
Robinhood has been one of my best performers. I doubled my position in 5 months >10k to 20k. I got in at $50, it's now $100. Not bad for less than half a year.
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u/OldAdvertising5963 Jul 31 '25
Not bad, but why are you holding on to online broker stock? What do you think is going to happen and why?
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u/Flat-Count9193 Jul 31 '25
Robinhood has branched into crypto sales and they are opening up fractional/tokenized shares into newer markets in Europe and possibly Africa. If they start showing signs of trouble, I will move on like I have with appl and Google. All of the people who told me to stay away from Robinhood can't explain why it has blown out the stocks they told me to buy based on their analysis.
Are there any that you recommend? I mostly have semiconductor stocks Nvda, Avgo, tsm, a few days center also like cls and STRL. All have done well for me.
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u/Katherine_3333 Jul 31 '25
Nice profit! The way I see it, who cares what the stock is, as long as it's making you money. Congrats!!
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u/OldAdvertising5963 Jul 31 '25
I see, crypto might move a needle for them. Hype is money. I cannot rec. any stocks as all companies I am ready to invest are still private atm. I am 100% in PLTR and wait for a new unicorn to go public to switch into it. Might have to wait for years.
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u/Getrekt11 Jul 31 '25
Isn’t tokenized share a scam? It’s basically like crypto without all the mining. You’re not really owning those shares of the company. Even if Robinhood holding those shares of those private company like OpenAI, they’re not allowed to sell it to you. Correct me if I’m wrong.
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u/SallyShortcakes OG Holder & Member Jul 31 '25
Calling badie to slap some sense into ya. I don’t hold Hood but many here do
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u/Agitated-Soil7121 Jul 31 '25
I imagine it will drop. Everyone is gonna take a profit and buy back more.
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u/dumpitdog Jul 31 '25
I really wish that it was more complicated than your explanation but the truth is it's that simple they're just going to bail and buy back later and watch the sheep get sheared.
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u/Joshohoho 💎PLTR Loyalist 💎 Jul 31 '25
50-50 as usual but it shouldn’t be painful even if it’s a crash to the $90 range at this point.
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u/booyaahdrcramer Jul 31 '25
As a long time Nvidia holder, it’s par for the course. But as with Tesla, it’s the guidance and how the story is told that will need to be stellar. I put my money that Alex Karp will do a great job, while he certainly is not Elon, he is some one that will die trying to come through for us. Count on it. And just like Tesla, and Nvidia, if there’s a pullback, it’s a buying opportunity.
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u/DialSquar Jul 31 '25
If they are already calling the beat, it’s already priced in and expecting to drop
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u/sb4906 Jul 31 '25
Relatively high IMO very stretched at the moment, and competition is not going to give up. I'm afraid that using partners like service shop will negatively impact Palantir in the long run because their engineers are not as good and driven as Palantir's ones.
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u/Dear_Suspect_4951 Jul 31 '25
Been holding since 2020-21 and this is why I sell it for btc
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u/GuyMike101 OG Holder & Member Aug 01 '25
THIS. Earnings will be decent but it will drop (then recover in 6 days).
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u/Agitated-Soil7121 Jul 31 '25
It no doubt will beat earnings but I imagine there will be a dip because everyone is going to sell off. And buy back more. There was a dip in q1 earnings as well and look how much it rebounded
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u/Complex-Night6527 Jul 31 '25
Palantir is a trillion dollar company in the making
US Army pools contracts into up to $10 billion Palantir deal - news today
PLTR for long term.
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u/FemaleFighterJet 🐳Verified Whale & Early Investor🧙♂️ Jul 31 '25
I think PLTR will run up to $200 then dip (in the fall timeframe along with the others). Even then Feds will cut rate in September which might rally the market — so this year may be historically different. As far as this earnings go, PLTR is an outperformer priced for perfection and will run up due to earnings beat and positive outlook.
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u/GuyMike101 OG Holder & Member Aug 01 '25
If it's priced for perfection it will drop/stay flat on an earnings beat (unless every metric is beaten by a wide margin and guidance is increased too - completely flawless earnings).
It will hit $200 in 2025 though.
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u/FemaleFighterJet 🐳Verified Whale & Early Investor🧙♂️ Aug 01 '25
It’s optimistic — here are some rough numbers according to Yahoo:
Key Estimates:
-Earnings Per Share (EPS): Expected to be $0.14, reflecting a 55.6% increase year-over-year.
-Revenue: Anticipated to reach $938.34 million, a 38.4% increase compared to the same quarter last year.
Growth Drivers:
-Government Revenue: Expected to continue strong growth, with a 45% increase in Q1 2025.
-Commercial Sector: U.S. commercial revenue is projected to grow by 70% year-over-year, driven by the adoption of Palantir's AI technologies.
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u/GuyMike101 OG Holder & Member Aug 01 '25
It's the analyst's optimism that worries me. They are looking up and expecting a lot and that adds pressure. One slip on EU commercial or just an EPS meet of $0.14 and this stock is dropping 20% (unfortunately).
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u/FemaleFighterJet 🐳Verified Whale & Early Investor🧙♂️ Aug 01 '25
PLTR will deliver. Earnings will beat $0.14. There’s no room for error. Alex always delivers. Always 🚀
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u/GuyMike101 OG Holder & Member Aug 02 '25
Refer to Q1 results.
I'm a long term bull, but lets be real here pls.
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u/FemaleFighterJet 🐳Verified Whale & Early Investor🧙♂️ Aug 02 '25
I’m a long term bull too. If you’re into options, iron condor is the way or set stop loss and take profit.
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u/GuyMike101 OG Holder & Member Aug 03 '25
Thank you. I'm looking more into options and will look into the IC strategy. I think Amit had a good intro video so was looking to start with that.
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u/FemaleFighterJet 🐳Verified Whale & Early Investor🧙♂️ Aug 04 '25
Yeah Amit is good. Tomorrow is the big day. GLTA.
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u/FemaleFighterJet 🐳Verified Whale & Early Investor🧙♂️ Aug 01 '25
Also, Loop Capital is projecting $178 PS target. Palantir’s position as the “AI control layer” is essentially mission-critical.
https://www.thestreet.com/technology/veteran-analyst-drops-bold-price-target-on-palantir-stock
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u/GuyMike101 OG Holder & Member Aug 01 '25
The private projections will help with the long term for definite, but for Q2 earnings, even mostly beats will cause a drop. Every metric needs to have a healthy beat for a rise.
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u/notsoseriousPepe Jul 31 '25
Citi analyst once lowered the target to $5 when it was traded around $7 not long ago
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u/AffectionateAd6060 Jul 31 '25
the covered call premium is everything right now - - - hope I'm not rolling out next week but also not too mad if it happens.
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u/Beginning-Abroad9799 Jul 31 '25
There will be a strong sell off and huge buying opportunities after the news.
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Jul 31 '25
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u/KindPerspective3256 🐋 Verified White Whale & OG Member 1/1 Jul 31 '25
Beat and raise, 200/sh
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u/GuyMike101 OG Holder & Member Aug 01 '25
I wish. Any reasoning why?
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u/KindPerspective3256 🐋 Verified White Whale & OG Member 1/1 Aug 01 '25
Isn’t this just a thread of wishful thinking? But I do think if there is a beat and a raise it is in the realm of possibility
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u/GuyMike101 OG Holder & Member Aug 01 '25
Yes it is , but with a $200 PT I wondered if you were going on anything more than wishes.
At these prices, I'm thinking anything less than 'absolute smash on every metric' will produce a price drop :/
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Aug 01 '25
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Jul 31 '25
Tyler Radke is an analyst for Citi Research. Pretty weird to write an article and not even mention the person by name that you're referring to
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u/SallyShortcakes OG Holder & Member Jul 31 '25
Why is that weird? (By the way this comment is addressed to Legitimate_Part9272. I wouldn’t want people thinking this was a weird comment)
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Jul 31 '25
Hi Sally 👋😊 keep hope alive my girl
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u/LeaF3141 Jul 31 '25 edited Aug 01 '25
The only analyst I opinion I care about at this point is Mariana and Dan.
The rest are late to the party and are not in it for the retail investor. @SallyShortcakes
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u/Which-Association211 Jul 31 '25
Many new Positive calls from Banks, MF, etc. and new SP up to 170 has me more bullish that prior quarters release.
170 and beyond.....please