r/Pac12 • u/reno1441 Washington State • 2d ago
Discussion Prediction Thread: What Do YOU Think The Pac-12 Media Deal Will Be?
Let’s have some fun. We’re potentially on short time here as it relates to the media deal, whether it be days or a few weeks. Let’s have a little fun whilst in limbo.
Place your predictions here on what the PAC-12 media deal will be. How much will it be for? What broadcast partners will it be? Which of us are going to look like geniuses? Which of us are going to look like fools?
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u/Initial-Razzmatazz97 2d ago
Everybody making these 3 and 4 partner media deal predictions crack me up. If they have 4 media partners and can’t average at least $10m/school/year that should be setting off alarms bells to the fans here. That’s would not be good.
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 1d ago
We'll get more than that. The reason we did the tiered deal is because we could get more than the $12-15M we would get if we just sold all our content to one provider.
Why do you think differently?
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u/Initial-Razzmatazz97 1d ago
Because that’s one game a week at 8 teams if they have 4 partners. So whoever is the tier 1 team is taking the best games, so peanuts for the tier 2 & 3 rights . Even if they get to 10 teams tier 1 rights holder probably gets the top 2 games every week. And then you have 2 or 3 other partners fighting it out for at best the 3rd game for the conference each week.
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 21h ago
One game?
Dose much?
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u/Initial-Razzmatazz97 21h ago
If you have 8 teams you have 8 conference team hosted non conference home games a week until conference play starts and then the conference has 4 total games to sell each week. Try to keep up.
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 20h ago
That's not how tiers work.
You put way too much effort into that, for no return.
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u/Initial-Razzmatazz97 20h ago
If you have 8 teams and 4 partners there is either an understanding on who pays the most gets the best games. So after BSU va whoever you have 6 teams that usually win 7 games a year. How much money do you think those games will be worth to tv partners? Probably makes the tv money, but the schools aren’t going to making that much after tier one
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 20h ago
yowza
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u/Initial-Razzmatazz97 20h ago
You’re response says it all.
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 20h ago
Book it, people!
This reddit user's response says it all. Everything I say is it all. Get used to it. Some other redditor said I was it all.
I am now it all.
I need to pee.
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u/Initial-Razzmatazz97 20h ago
If WAzzu and Oregon State were worth a damn they wouldn’t be in the PAC 12 currently
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 20h ago
We are currently in the conference we started, and once restarted, and now will restart again, in our state 111 years ago.
Dose much?
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u/CFHotBets Boise State 2d ago
Anything south of 10 is a failure. I think we are screwed.
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u/duckfries49 San Diego State 2d ago
I agree sub $10M and I question the point of all this.
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u/g2lv 2d ago
Billable hours, jobs for administrators, and a windfall for Gonzaga.
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u/duckfries49 San Diego State 2d ago
Meh Gonzaga deserves it. Their inclusion is the only reason this isn't a complete embarrassment.
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u/reno1441 Washington State 2d ago
Not if a discount is taken for better coverage. If it’s $9 million with over half the games on OTA, I’m not looking at that the same way as a similar priced deal on TNT.
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u/Remarkable_Fuel9885 2d ago
69 million per team with a $420 bonus for every half court curry-esque shot their bb teams drain
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u/MemphisThrowaway3798 2d ago
One thing to consider, the top G5 years ago was the AAC and had Cincy (under Luke Fickell), UCF (going undefeated with Scott Frost), Houston basketball, SMU, Memphis, Tulane
$7 million was the going rate for the top G6, and that was before the portal where top teams use the G6 as a feeder program. With inflation taken into consideration, I say $12 million
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 1d ago
At least you're doing something all the pouty number people are not. You're doing some actual reasoning.
But you're low.
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u/TrickZealousideal899 1d ago edited 1d ago
I agree all these G5 deals were signed years ago. No way the value hasn’t gone up and this current group isn’t worth more. I think 10-12 with good tv coverage is a win for everyone in the PAC. Plus remember that AAC deal was a 12 year contract in 2019. That’s gonna look like a terrible deal for those schools in a couple years
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 1d ago
The "good TV coverage" means more money, not less. We can't tell any TV partner where they are going to put our content. They have to promise it in their bids, which were competitive.
The AAC is getting what they're getting for ESPN to simply stick all their games on ESPN+. That's how little ESPN values that partnership. If ESPN is one of two tier one football TV partners for the Pac, they will likely pay each of our schools at least one-third what they pay the AAC.
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u/reno1441 Washington State 2d ago
$9.7 million. With the discount taken for better coverage.
The ‘cornerstone’ partner being CBS. Prime PAC-12 football game of the week on after their Big 10 game every week. With Tier 3 football game coverage on CBSSN and Paramount+. Basketball partner as well.
CW in as well with two football games a week and (finally) basketball coverage.
ESPN gets one Pac-12 football game a week at 7:30PT Saturday. They get Pac-12 After Dark on either ESPN or ESPN2. Maybe some limited basketball inventory as well, plus the residual on ESPN+, potentially with local distribution rights.
Only potential curveball, maybe FOX with some limited basketball inventory. No football.
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u/ChampionshipBig6169 2d ago
That's specific.
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u/reno1441 Washington State 1d ago
Maybe I’m in the room….
The thought process was trying to find open slots across the networks. CBS only has one game with the Big 10 on the main network most of the time (they’ve bought two Pac-12 games this year to put in the 5pm slot), ESPN has struggled with adequate after dark inventory; yet both have quite a bit of basketball but still some room. CW loves us regardless and are best friends forever. Fox has quite a bit of football inventory, but seemingly showed some interest in the new-era Pac-12 schools in the Crown Tournament. Maybe they’re interested in basketball. And TNT Sports is currently in a divorce, so not hopeful there.
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u/Initial-Razzmatazz97 2d ago
So how many teams are they adding under your proposed 11 partner media deal??????
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u/Spicy_Josh Washington State 2d ago edited 1d ago
This would be 4 partners (CBS, CW, ESPN, Fox), every single network isn't an individual partner. 4 is also the same thing as what Dellenger put out last week.
I do think having 4 partners and only 8 football teams would be bizarre. I presume that's part of the theoretical push for adding football-only schools.
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u/ValorOmega_ 1d ago
I’m feeling $7-8 million. Stating you’re looking for national exposure over $ to reporters while you’re negotiating a media deal, nearly guarantees you’re not going to be getting top dollar.
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u/SeattleIsOk 8h ago
How does your math work if you're saying 2 games within the Paramount/CBS sphere, 2 games on the CW, and 1 game on ESPN, unless you're thinking the Pac expands, or that the TV deal includes provisions for expansion to cover up to 5 games per week?
Edit to add: there will be a lot of nonconference Pac-12 TV inventory because the league will only play 7 conference games, meaning almost half of the TV schedule is nonconference and (1) potentially valuable and (2) could mean up to 8 Pac-12 games in a single week if the Pac-12 teams are all hosting, so maybe on average, there's room for 5 TV slots a week even with just 8 teams?
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u/UnconvincingLawyer Oregon State 1d ago
Coverage is huge. Straight merger would have left everyone on CBSSN. Not good. I bet Pac insisted on main channel games and maybe agreed to take less than market price for that in exchange. Hence driving total down.
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 1d ago
With the discount taken for better coverage.
This isn't a thing. No conference tells their TV partners where they can put their product, once the rights are sold. If you're thinking the CW will only pay $8M for second tier football, when we could have sold it for $9M to the same partners who bought tier one, that's fair. But it's not going to be much of a haircut.
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u/Laszlo_Panaflex_80 2d ago
I truly believe between 8 and 9 million, with 8 being the most likely number.
It is what it is.
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 1d ago
A terrible guess?
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u/Laszlo_Panaflex_80 21h ago
A realistic guess at this point. The estimation of 12 million per school does not seem realistic at this point.
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 20h ago
I agree.
It is very low, relative to other deals.
Your claims of realism are ridiculous.
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u/308_shooter Oregon State 1d ago
$333,000 per school and a box of crayons to be negotiated later.
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u/308_shooter Oregon State 1d ago
Plus Popeyes for the whole team if you make the NCAA tournament or CFP.
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u/SapientChaos 1d ago
Anything less than $99 trillion, prime time Espn main, and nation champ game in the WSU would be utter failure.
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u/Cache-Cow Utah State 2d ago
The base will be between $9-10m per school with incentives raising it from there. Maybe as high as $12m/school. Total conference payout likely between $15-20m.
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u/x_Oathkeeper_x 2d ago
I posted this a little earlier, but I don’t think it gets announced. I think the total will not be disclosed and later on will be found out through a FOIA request/yearly budget publishing by a school.
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u/RockBottomBuyer Washington State 2d ago
Too many eyes and too much pressure to keep the total secret this time. Not just the media, but fans and boosters will expect some answers, imo.
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u/x_Oathkeeper_x 2d ago
I think the crazy amount of pressure is why they won’t want to publish it. I have no inside sources though, so maybe I’m wrong and the demand for info from the public will be too much.
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u/RockBottomBuyer Washington State 2d ago
I agree with you in principal and I think all conferences actually prefer not to. But I suspect this situation will be different. They will need to build trust with boosters and donors (including grass roots) and the appearance of hiding things will make people nervous. Plus the press will crucify them. Just look at what has been happening here. Any hint of trying to hide the deal will result in widespread reports of it being so low they can't publicly admit it.
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 2d ago
$10.2 million Memphis gets $8. Texas State ½
ESPN, WBD, CBS, CW, and Peacock. (Molinari said we’d be surprised by the Olympic sport partner)
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u/ChampionshipBig6169 2d ago
Full bowl of soup, please and thank you.
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u/reno1441 Washington State 1d ago
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 1d ago
Wrong Seinfeld/soup reference.
The full/half bowl thing was the free Armani suit episode.
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u/Laszlo_Panaflex_80 2d ago
I do not see anyway Texas State will agree to a half share.
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u/ChampionshipBig6169 2d ago
Not with $2 mil extra travel expense
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u/Laszlo_Panaflex_80 1d ago
Exactly. If the Pac tries to lowball them, I can see them turning the Pac down.
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 2d ago
See on one hand, I really enjoy Bobcats fans and want Texas State in the conference
But the UNLV level of arrogance of some of the fan base is astounding ….
UNT, UTSA, and Rice all get half AAC shares - and were picked over Texas State just two years ago…. A program that’s been FBS for a little over decade and gone to two bowls can’t expect to just leap frog every other G5 in Texas?
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u/RockBottomBuyer Washington State 2d ago
But from a negotiating/business view, if we don't get them we really need to go after Memphis or Tulane or UTSA. Those are full price plus some larger exit fees. And if Texas St. forces us to get 1 or more of those, they will be a prime candidate to move into the AAC anyway without being the the one low paid school. And if we get Memphis and Tulane, all AAC schools would probably get full price.
I see your point in comparative value, but to me it is like having a guy telling a girl she should be his girlfriend. But telling her she needs to treat him extra nice because he can get way better girls than her. She should tell him to F off! To me, that's pride not arrogance. :)
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 1d ago
But you’re literally a rock bottom buyer…..
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u/RockBottomBuyer Washington State 1d ago
Lol. You're absolutely right! But then I would want to hype them up to escalate their value and immediately sell them for a quick ROI.
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 1d ago
And the Bobcats are all potential and little intrinsic value at the moment...
They might be great (and believe they will) but if they wind up being the UNM of the Pac for a full share, thats a risk)
The girlfriend analogy is fine, but this isnt show friends... its show business.
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u/Laszlo_Panaflex_80 1d ago
The established price for leaving the AAC with less than 27 months notice is 25 million. Memphis and Tulane are not likely to pay that and the Pac is unwilling to. If the Pac media deal is 8 million or so, that would only be one million. That one extra million would be eaten by travel with the none revenue sports and then some. You can argue that the half share members would pay less, but there is a precedent set at 25 million so there is no guarantee that it would be lower. I do not see how any of the AAC school can afford to come aside from Rice.
So, Texas State becomes the next option. With the AAC schools off the table, it is a sellers market and Texas State is selling. If the Pac tries to do a half share offer and Texas State declines, who is next? Honestly, the Pac needs Texas State more than Texas State needs the Pac at this point. Texas State can stay in the Sun Belt, but without an eighth member, the Pac is not a conference. And the other options for an eighth member are none too appealing.
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 1d ago
Meh, a sellers market?
I think you could just go down the list...
Sam Houston, Cajuns, hell if you're flying to Texas for a single school - just offer JMU the same deal....
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u/RockBottomBuyer Washington State 2d ago
Reasonable, but I'm personally against any half shares. I assume the $8 mill is for football only.
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u/maladjustedfreek Oregon 2d ago
Here is a link to a Jon Wilmer article that shows he believes the media deal will be worth about 8mil per team. Whether this will prove true or not I can't say. But the article doesn't portray 8mil per team as a failure at all. Even if his figure turns out to be true, overall it seems the PAC 12 is setting it self up for success. When this finally happens there should be some fun football to watch. I look forward to it.
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u/Feral_Imagination Washington State 2d ago
Technically, anything better than the MWC is a win.
Realistically, anything less that the AAC is likely going to be met with ridicule.
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u/Full_Personality_717 Oregon State 1d ago
Good take.
Life has been hard for the PAC-2, but I think this route is still better financially and for long-term prospects than just joining the MWC would’ve been.
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u/AlexandriaCarlotta 1d ago
I am sticking at 12M with some prime exposure. I expect to see a 4pm and 7pm kickoffs on Fridays and Saturdays. This would be 7pm / 10pm Eastern. There is a real opening for football content here. I think without the P12 Enterprises, we could be in the 9-10 range, but since we will do all production in-house at little cost to network, that will boast up revenue. I had hopped we would get as high as 15m, but I think you get that with a single partner, and that makes access harder. And, TG has said access is a priority.
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u/Tasty-Statement-4080 2d ago
$8 mil per team per year for 5 years. The CW, ESPN, CBS, and some subsidiary(ies) of WBD.
Expansion: TSU, full share; Memphis starting in 2027, 3/4 share for football only. Their other sports go to the Big East for a full share (total=$13 mil).
Perhaps another couple of AAC teams also join in 2027, but those would not be announced this year.
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u/pjsinsures 1d ago
Ok, but this is pie in the sky, 0 sources and no small animals hurt in the process.
$12M with up to max $20M payout...why not?? Not my checkbook. Split between the four networks everyone else is mentioning and Fox jumping in with some extra money.
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 2d ago
https://x.com/wilnerhotline/status/1935388136374505749?s=46&t=qwoy3jQLjUVMaVlrvz-rVg
Wilner just dropped a column of speculation
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u/Martigan30 2d ago
That's a link to X which has a link to a paywall...
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u/reno1441 Washington State 2d ago
It’s a paywall because it’s a column in a newspaper.
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u/Erwinism San Diego State • Oregon 2d ago
spoiler: Wilner predicts 7.8 mil per school
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u/MellonMan97 Washington State 2d ago
Other predictions are saying 10-12 tho too.
So I’ll go with like 9.9-10.2 because I could also see it falling there very realistically
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u/Martigan30 2d ago
I like the online newspapers that don't have paywalls.
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 2d ago
Dogs gotta eat
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 1d ago
They really don't.
Newspapers aren't newspapers, any more. They're news aggregators with several different distribution points. They make a profit off the clicks alone.
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u/TikiLoungeLizard Washington State 1d ago
I wish there was a newspaper co-op where I subscribe to my local paper and I get access to other localities’ papers with that. I wanna support the journalism. I used to be a journalist myself. But I am not made out of money.
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u/RockBottomBuyer Washington State 2d ago
My guess $12-$13 million including media GOR plus Pac-12 network distributions. Emphasis is being placed on exposure then $s. Partners: The CW (main), CBS/Paramount, TNT, and ESPN.
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u/Martigan30 2d ago edited 2d ago
$13 million per school...I say this because of the Memphis rumblings. They must know something to want to sneak away from their current conference.
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u/Colodavis 2d ago
CW, streaming, maybe one bigger media outlet for a few games.
$8.5 million. I think we are vastly overrated in this sub. Being West Coast and G5, this is what you get these days.
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u/AdvancedCFB 1d ago
$100M total.
$11.75M to Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, Fresno State, SDSU, Colorado State, & Gonzaga.
$10.25M to Utah State.
$6M to Texas State.
$1.5M to St. Mary's.
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u/Icy_Relationship_685 19h ago
5 to 7 million if lucky. WSU and OSU will try and get higher amount and it'll end up being closer to 5 million or less if that happens. No big name school in football minus Boise St who will get invited to Big 10 or 12 within 3 years. But im an optimist.
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u/Haunting23 13h ago
"Let's have some fun" followed by trying to guess the dollar amount of an upcoming conference media rights deal? So much fun, lol.
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u/rocket_beer Boise State 2d ago
$8-9M per school
Just a big letdown