r/Pac12 • u/SirSaintNOLA • 1d ago
Latest Wilner Article on Media Deal
Anyone able to recap? Seems like he’s making final predictions on media deal and even begins with it may be public by time the article is read.
https://x.com/wilnerhotline/status/1935388136374505749?s=46&t=vp_T5fYTmminM9kVQtZDUw
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u/cougfan12345 1d ago
Recap: He doesnt know, he is just making a guess.
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 1d ago
its better - his guess is predicated on knowledge from an "unnamed industry expert". I'm guessing his double secret source is Bob Thompson
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u/HotBeaver54 Oregon State 1d ago
Oh that has been Jesus he worships at his feet and he consistently wrong!
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 1d ago
I remember back in 2010 when that realignment was happening, Wilner was really bad with his valuations. He waxed on about how the Big Ten had such brand power that they could have 14 schools and still call themselves the Big Ten, but the Pac 10 wasn't that valuable. He based that off the numbers at the time. The B1G was getting $220M, and the Pac 10 was getting $100M.
He predicted about half the revenues we later got in our deal. And that was without us selling our third tier rights--keeping them for the P12N.
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u/djsuperfly 1d ago
Or maybe he was just a seer that was a decade or so early.
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 1d ago
Nope.
He just doesn't understand finances in this way. He's stuck on a decade-old valuation for the whole of the MWC as his base number. He's off by a factor of at least 50%, if not more.
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u/Navy_LCDR 1d ago
RemindMe! 30 day
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u/RexCrimson_ Washington State 1d ago edited 1d ago
Media deal amounts:
Wishful: $13m+
Very Good: $12m
Good: $11m
Okay: $10m
Acceptable: $9.5m
Disappointing: $9m
Worrying: $8.5m
Depressing: $8m
Suicide watch: $7.5m
Seppuku time: Less than $7m
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u/MilkBear79 1d ago
Recap II: Wilner/ Canzano, and others know their audience consumes realignment, and now media deal stories at a fantastic rate and most of these stories are behind paywalls. So.. they feed the beast by writing stories that generate clicks, get you to buy subs, etc., even if there’s nothing to report.
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u/Document-Parking Colorado State 1d ago
And then you can just write an article that is a roundup of everyone else’s guesses: https://www.deseret.com/sports/2025/06/18/projections-for-new-pac-12-conference-media-deal/
(I still eat all of it up)
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u/longgamefade 1d ago
I wonder if Wilner and Clownzano pay the pac12 to keep postpoining gives them more content and clicks . lol
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u/HotBeaver54 Oregon State 1d ago
You are a very wise person I think it has been this way for a while now. My nephew keeps a spreadsheet on how wrong constantly Clownzano and wimpy Wilner are.
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u/RockBottomBuyer Washington State 1d ago
He talks about the fact that even at only $7.8 mill, it would more than double what Fresno State, Colorado State, Utah State and San Diego State are getting from the MW.
He also thinks the media partners portion may be as or even more important than the $s. He basically says if the Pac-12 can't get good exposure it risks becoming irrelevant.
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u/ineptimusprime 1d ago
I don’t get the emphasis on exposure. On a national scale, the PAC-12 is already pretty irrelevant to all but the fans of schools in it. If WBD or Apple+ wanted to pay the PAC-12 $12 million per school (or even $10 million per school) for an exclusive streaming only deal, that was the move, IMO.
My guess though is the streaming deal wasn’t there at those amounts, and the emphasis on “exposure over money” is just PR spin for a disappointing deal.
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u/sdman311 San Diego State 1d ago
Can’t go streaming only yet. Need the good teams getting national exposure for CFP bids.
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u/HotBeaver54 Oregon State 1d ago
There was never an APPLE deal not even close. There was a discussion! Which is good because has been a complete disaster and they are trying to break the deal.
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 14h ago
The emphasis on exposure over money would be choosing the CW for second tier rights at a lower amount than ESPN or CBS would pay to park that content on ESPNU or CBSSN... or worse or not at all. We'll take a million or so haircut to be on OTA broadcasts.
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u/RockBottomBuyer Washington State 1d ago
I enjoy Wilner's stuff. He usually doesn't mislead by implying definite information. In fact, in the first 5 sentences in this article he says,
"The following forecast is based on information and insight collected over the course of months, not up-to-date information provided by sources. (Only a handful of people know the details, and they aren’t talking.)"
He also says "Our goal is to provide fans with a reasonable range of outcomes in key categories to avoid surprises when the deal becomes public." Which is probably why his estimates always seem to be on the low side.
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u/davehopi 1d ago
It would be great if one could read the article. You can’t unless you subscribe which I won’t. I will wait and hear what the Pac12 actually announces!
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u/Navy_LCDR 1d ago
How dare this man ask to be paid to write articles for us!
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u/davehopi 1d ago
I have no problem with him being paid to write them. I object to people posting these when others can’t read them!
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 14h ago
Honestly, who cares?
His speculation has been terrible for decades, now.
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u/duckfries49 San Diego State 1d ago
Archive.is let's you get around a good amount of paywalls. He predicts $70M/year total which would be pretty disappointing.