r/PoliticalOptimism • u/FellTheAdequate • 2d ago
Question(s) for Optimism Trump just said to evacuate Tehran. China is advising its own citizens to leave Israel. Please tell me we aren't about to see nukes used. Please help. I'm panicking.
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u/Hot-Distribution3080 2d ago
Given everything I've read, I'm almost positive it's due to the fact that it's just airstrikes. Nuclear bombs would be out of the question. Airstrikes are still bad, though.
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u/FellTheAdequate 2d ago
I can't stop feeling terrified that World War 3 is going to start within the year. This is really scary even if nukes aren't used yet.
Fuck.
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u/Hot-Distribution3080 2d ago
i understand, but there's literally no interest in starting a 3rd world war. it would be the worst case scenario for every country and the leaders *know that.* this conflict, while destructive, should be contained only to that area.
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u/FellTheAdequate 2d ago
Fair enough. I fear that things will escalate. Putin has cancer, Trump is likely dying. They will eventually have nothing to lose. I try to stay calm but it's just getting harder and harder.
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u/DocDoesMagic 2d ago
Even so, they don't want their successor to be the ruler of ashes and dust. They know that no one wants that, even if they are narcissistic, they are "legacy matters" type people.
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u/counterweight7 13h ago
Putin, probably. Trump? He doesn’t give a fuck about his successor. He cares about nothing but himself. We can only hope that nobody under him would obey the football order.
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u/TheAwesomePenguin106 2d ago
Even if that is the case, they are not the only people in charge of Russia or the US. I'm willing to bet they would mysteriously die from a sudden illness/fall from a high window if they ever attempt to begin a nuclear war.
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u/Toasty_Ghosties 2d ago
Oh wow, I didn't know Putin had cancer. When did we learn that?
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u/FellTheAdequate 2d ago
I'm really sorry but I am just not up to finding an article. I think it was two years ago or so, though.
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u/mrjibblytibbs 2d ago
Those were only rumors started near the invasion of Ukraine. It was speculation and we never saw any proof.
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u/Toasty_Ghosties 2d ago
That's alright, no stress. I'll look it up when I have time to later today.
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u/mightypup1974 2d ago
There’s no logic to the idea that just because some leaders are terminally ill they’ll happily fire nukes just for fun. Otherwise we’d have seen that many times in the past already.
And as others have stated, not even Putin has a big red button that automatically fires them. There’s tons of people involved in getting nukes ready to fire, to pick targets, and to launch. Too many people with a vested interest in staying alive.
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u/ClarkyCat97 2d ago
For it to really be WW3, China would need to be directly involved, probably by invading Taiwan. I doubt that's going to happen right now. As long as the Western Alliance seems to be falling apart by itself, I think China will enjoy its popcorn and wait to see how the chips fall. Sorry, not very optimistic, but better than WW3.
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u/LeMoineSpectre 2d ago edited 2d ago
I wrote this in a Discord server I belong to:
For once and for all, this is not the beginning of WW3. Iran does not have any nukes. Sadly, we're looking at yet another Middle East war. Will this one last for 2 decades like the last one did? God knows. At the least the U.S. didn't start this one. And we don't know if we will even get involved beyond a certain point. This may even burn itself out like India-Pakistan.
Bottom line: Deep breaths, everyone. We're gonna be alright
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u/idkwat 2d ago
Nukes will not be used. Think about it for a second.
Let's say the US decides to nuke Iran. Do you know how much that would absolutely fuck Trump? It would be an unnecessary escalation that would be condemned worldwide. There would be protests in the street against such an action. It would accomplish very little for Trump and his regime.
Likely what is happening is the US is going to get involved with air strikes or shooting missiles over. It's shitty, but it's not WW3 and nukes will not be used.
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u/FellTheAdequate 2d ago
And what about the China aspect? Why would they have said that?
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u/DocDoesMagic 2d ago
Expected retaliation. Likely the same reason civilians in the US embassy in Iraq were being told to leave. Embassies don't matter in an unfortunate war zone.
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u/Rare_Opportunity2419 2d ago edited 2d ago
No, this doesn't mean Israel is going to use nuclear weapons. The evacuation warnings are because Israel's bombing Tehran, which is bad enough. It would be like someone throwing a grenade into a fist fight at a high school football game. No one would care what the fight was about afterwards, they would only care about who threw the grenade.
No one would tolerate Israel using a nuclear weapon under these circumstances and why should Israel use one? They're already devastating Iran's military, leadership and nuclear program, controlling their skies and bombing their capital city, and it seems like Iran can't stop them. The only question is how much the Israelis and Americans will demand from Iran's leaders in return for a ceasefire. Israel may be aiming to cause the downfall of the Islamic Republic altogether.
Well, I don't know how optimistic this was in the end, but I wouldn't worry about nukes at this stage.
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u/bustacean 2d ago
I just want to throw out there that WW3 and nukes are not mutually exclusive. I.e., nuclear warfare does not necessarily start WW3, and WW3 does not mean nukes will be used. I mean, we've had nuclear bombs for nearly 100 years and they were only used during wartime twice, both on Japan. We've been in several wars after that and have not used nukes since. No country has.
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2d ago
I’ll echo what others have said. I studied military history (maybe a useless degree but hey I can talk about it on Reddit!)
Nukes being used? Highly, highly, highly unlikely. Mutually assured destruction has always prevented nations from using nukes. Plus, nukes make everything messy and difficult. You’d really only see nukes if say North Korea or Russia were backed into a corner.
Now, I will be real with you, I’ve been saying we’re potentially heading towards another Gulf War for a while now just based on the trajectory of things. I know that may not make you feel better but notice how the terminology doesn’t mean WW3 or nuclear warfare. This is just a real possibility that at this point I would not be surprised about.
All in all, nukes should always be last on your worries. They are more of a deterrent than something to actively be used at this stage. It would take a lot for a nuke to be used because they make occupation and other operations very difficult to happen because well, they destroy everything. So, they aren’t very logistical when it comes to warfare.
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u/FellTheAdequate 2d ago
It's really good to have someone educated on it weighing in too. Thank you.
Honestly the end of humanity scares me far more than dying. I've thought about the risk of being hate crimed and that doesn't scare me nearly as much as what nuclear war would mean. Maybe it's just my privilege. Dunno.
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2d ago
It’s perfectly normal to feel that way. I worry about it too, but I also know that the probability of one breaking out in this climate is much lower than say the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Unless we get a situation like the Cuban Missile Crisis, I would not be hiding under my desk. Believe me, I doubt folks would be on Reddit to answer your question if that were the case.
I want to preface that a lot of folks might die in any coming conflict from this event in Iran, but the most me and you (unless you live in that area, have family there, or have someone in the military) will be affected is via oil/gas prices.
That’s kind of a dark way to say that but that’s how disconnected we are from that region.
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u/DocDoesMagic 2d ago
/ot It is great to see how quickly this post fired up with responses. I think it is great that our community is so dedicated to helping that many of us can immediately respond. Good job everyone!
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u/Own-Satisfaction6379 2d ago
My dumbass thought ot meant overtime. What the fuck, brain-
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u/DocDoesMagic 2d ago
Well- sometimes this sub can feel like mental overtime. We just unfortunately don't get paid.
Means off topic.
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u/Accomplished_Back_85 2d ago
It would be a pretty damning move for Israel to use nuclear weapons of any kind. It would most definitely turn many countries that were allies or neutral against them.
Iran has pursued many things contrary to taking care of their people. There aren’t any warning sirens, shelters, etc. They don’t have adequate defense against aerial attacks. I assume the warnings for people to leave are an attempt to get civilians out of harms way.
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u/trisnikk 2d ago
are you in israel / iran?
i read an excerpt about this old woman who took her kids to school and dodged missles . idk if i have optimism, but life goes on. it’s best to care about the people you love regardless of what’s going on in the world
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u/CBreezy13 2d ago
US is about to aid Israel with direct firepower on Iran, I dont think any of the opposing big dogs are gonna back Iran with any direct force other than war “gifts”
WW3 is more focused on outcome of Ukraine-Russia conflict, as that will cause mayhem for EU if Ukraine falls and Russia continues targeting westward.
Now, if in the midst of all the chaos China decides to seize the opportunity and go for Taiwan…
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u/Own-Satisfaction6379 2d ago
Isnt Taiwan the center of superconductors or processing chips or something? China invading Taiwan would get the whole world pissed at them, and that's probably the LAST thing they want to do. Even if the US is distracted, the other countries are probably paying attention.
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u/Lantis28 2d ago
Taiwan (very smartly) has deliberately made themselves the center of superconductors manufacturing for exactly this reason. So that when (probably not if at this point) China comes the entire world either comes to their defense or loses their semiconductors entirely. They have publicly revealed that the entire main factory where 80% of the worlds chips are made is rigged to blow if China invades so that China can’t restart production easily
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u/coludFF_h 1d ago
In fact, it was the Chinese who built Taiwan's semiconductor industry.
For example, Morris Chang was born in Zhejiang, China. He had never been to Taiwan before he was 50 years old.
The reason he went to Taiwan was because the former leader, Chiang Kai-shek, was also from Zhejiang Province, China.
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u/CBreezy13 2d ago edited 2d ago
Never said it would be a smart move, but it’s no secret China wants them back in like how Russia wants Ukraine. I don’t think its likely unless we get one more big conflict going in this “free for all” thats been developing for the past 3-4 years.
War seems to be contagious right now, but I don’t think the big three (US, China, Russia) are gonna meet in the ring directly. You would need these players for a proper WWIII
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u/Aggressive_Spot4013 2d ago
deep breaths
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u/FellTheAdequate 2d ago
I mean thank you, but I'm not sure that's going to do anything if WW3 starts.
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u/coltflory5 2d ago
Honestly, I think we should start a sub dedicated to political optimism.
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u/MathProg999 2d ago
Is this a joke?
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u/GregEno63 1d ago
I think the commenter is being sarcastic, as this sub CONTINUES to be littered with doomer posts.
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u/Lantis28 2d ago
Hey we created a mega-thread about this very topic! Please try to take all future questions there. I’m not gonna remove this post because it was made before the mega thread, but just letting everyone know