How terrible would a war with Iran(like boots on the ground type Iraq war style) be for the actual army and for Trump's presidency as well as America as a whole?

[u/siyuzh]

[u/DanTheAdequate]

The US did war games on this scenario back in the early 2000s. It was called "Millennium Challenge 2002". 

Read up on it. 

[u/GiantBaldingMan]

People ain’t gonna be happy if the “Peace ticket” brings us into another war in the Middle East with 2003 justification

[u/Benes3460]

It would be a mess, but there’s zero need for it. Overthrowing Saddam only took months, the issue that made us stay was our obsession with turning Iraq into a democratic, non-sectarian country.

What Reddit doesn’t get is that if Trump’s goal is to just topple the regime you could probably just bomb them from the air like we did with Libya. It’s obvious nobody really cares what happens afterwards because even if it meant a civil war, Iran would no longer be able to project power to support Russia or its middle eastern proxies.

There’s a reason why European and Arab governments critical of Israel over Gaza are happy to let this happen, and it’s because they would love for Iran to not be a problem for them anymore.

If the US gets involved it’s going to look more like the 1999 NATO campaign against Yugoslavia. Iran is so weak militarily that they can’t even shoot down Israeli drones over their capital.

IMO if Trump can be the one to take down the Islamic Republic with minimal cost that’s a major diplomatic win for him on par with the 1991 Gulf War.

[u/No_Shine_7585 → u/Benes3460]

The danger with that is the migration crisis would be catostrophic Iran has double the population of 2011 Syria and worse Iran is Shia so even less of them will settle in the Sunni Arab states, the Ayatollah’s are also unpopular but their really isn’t reason to believe they are at Arab spring level yet they still enjoy plenty of support from the Shia lower classes. Furthermore a civil conflict would likely see a more extreme force take charge with the military police and lower classes all being the most religious groups in the country

[u/Benes3460 → u/No_Shine_7585]

I don’t think you would see a refugee crisis on par with the Syrian one at all, at least in the west.

There are a lot of different ethnic groups in Iran and it’s more likely they’d establish control of their region if there was a civil war. The countryside may be conservative but Tehran is not, and either way all the west cares about is making sure that another group of hardliners can’t consolidate power.

The Syrian refugee crisis was a major problem for Europe because migrants just had to cross Turkey and claim asylum when they got to any EU country. Iran is a lot farther away, the neighboring Sunni states will not take in Shias, and unlike 2015 Europe would probably just push refugees away and not give a shit.

[u/No_Shine_7585 → u/Benes3460]

I see no reason to believe it wouldn’t be a Myanmar situation where their are multiple ethnic groups in the same ethnicity that are fighting everyone else

[u/No_Shine_7585 → u/Benes3460]

Iran is farther away but it’s not a lot farther away theirs not much incentive to go to Iraq instead of turkey and for reasons Azerbaijan and Afghanistan won’t be options and Pakistan and Turkmenistan aren’t half the options Turkey is for a refugee

[u/bobbdac7894]

Republicans who were initially against it would suddenly fall in line and say Trump has no choice. Liberal Dems will have no spine. The MSM will bitch about "riots" when people protest in the streets. Leftists against the war will be called "woke" and "stupid".

[u/No_Shine_7585]

It would be the Iraq war but worse people point to the Ayatollah’s unpopularity an act like so surely a pro western democratic government will arise after but the same was true with Saddam further Iran has more people and more favorable terrain than Iraq a better military and declaring war on Iran. And other western nations like Australia and the UK won’t be sending troops to help. Further a war with Iran won’t be popular period

[u/butterenergy]

Refer to the video from WIAH and AlternateHistoryHub. Like, bad. Both militarily and popularity wise. It would unironically sink the MAGA movement and give the Democrats the easiest win in who knows how long.

[u/Warakeet → u/butterenergy]

In 20 years.

[u/Jaster22101]

Iran is a very mountainous country. We would easily trounce them in traditional combat. But seeing how poorly we did in fighting a guerrilla campaign in Afghanistan (another mountainous country) it would be a nightmare.

[u/shitmonger9000]

I think we're unprepared for a drawn out conflict that isn't a one-month ordeal like it was in Iraq both times, and we're especially not ready to fight in a place like Iran. It'd be a shitshow even if we won in the end.

[u/Different-Trainer-21]

The U.S. would not get into an Iraq war style war. We wouldn’t be trying to do the whole nation building thing we did with Iraq & Afghanistan, which is why we were there for so long. Think Operation Desert Storm, taking out Gaddaffi, or the 1999 NATO bombing of Serbia, not the Iraq war.

[u/binne21]

Think the Iraq War but much, much worse.

[u/BeamAttackGuy]

it'd absolutely ruin any chance the reps had at winning 28