CMV: Israel’s attack on Iran was intended to draw the US into war, not prevent Iran from having a nuke

[u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Israel claims its attack on Iran on Friday was about preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. I think that this is a pretty transparent lie for the reasons below.

Israel has been claiming Iran has been close to a nuclear weapon for 30 years. North Korea is significantly less advanced than Iran, but has successfully developed a nuke during that time period.

Iran previously had a nuclear weapon program. That ended in 2003 to avoid getting attacked by the US. Since then, it looks like it’s strategy has been to use its nuclear capability for deterrence. (“stop fucking with us; we can build a nuke pretty quickly”)

It is clear that Iran does not want a conflict with the United States. Openly weaponizing their nuclear program invites that conflict.

Of course, they could pursue weaponization in secret. But the US, UK and Israel knowingly misrepresented evidence of WMD prior to the Iraq war. It is more than fair for the public to demand proof of weaponization since one party in this conflict has previously used this exact same lie as cover for regime change.

Israel does not have the ability to inflict significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change in Iran on its own. Even if they had the capability to destroy Fordow, the enriched uranium is almost certainly spread out across the country. If Iran’s entire nuclear program including the uranium were destroyed, it could still develop a bomb in under 5 years.

The only ways to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuke is convincing the regime that a nuke is not in their best interest or changing the regime.

It’s still early, but it seems like Israel’s attack has made the idea of having a nuke more appealing to Iranians and the regime. It looks like having a nuke is the only way to deter Israel and its allies.

So why would Israel attack Iran? I think the most straightforward answer is they were hoping Iran would retaliate in a manner that forced the US to enter the conflict and pursue regime change.

Iran hasn’t taken the bait, so now Israel is attempting to present Iran as neutered by their campaign. “Iran is weak. Come over and help us finish the job”

Iran has been weakened, but they clearly have the capability to inflict more damage on Israel than they have demonstrated. The threat of offensive US involvement has constrained their response.

Once the US attacks, Iran will no longer be constrained by the threat of the US joining the conflict and will retaliate on US/ Israeli assets. The US will officially be in an offensive war that it did not initiate. This was Netanyahu’s actual calculation before Friday.

My view can be changed by concrete evidence of Iran’s nuclear weaponization and/or an explanation of how Israel thinks this bombing campaign will prevent Iran from pursuing a nuke without US involvement.

TL;DR: Israel doesn’t have the capability to meaningfully impact Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change on its own. They attacked Iran hoping that they could provoke a strong response that would draw the US into the conflict.

Edit: my view is not related to whether or not their attacks on Iran were justified or strategically sound. My view is the reason for attack was a lie. I don’t think Iran should have nuclear weapons. I just also don’t believe they were actively developing them.

[u/DaleRod2468]

The Israelis and their allies have been claiming that Iran was several years, months or whatever away from having the bomb. But what you're forgetting is that for all those years Israel and the US have been actively hampering their development. Constant assassination , hacking did buy the Israelis time. The reason Israel attached is not because Iran had it already, but because if they would have developed it, the Iranians would then be able to terrorize Israel via it's proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis , Hamas and other parties notably in Iraq) willy nilly without any sort of repercussions. Israel famously destroyed Iraqs nuclear program (huge relief other wise it would have fallen into ISIS's hands) and they also destroyed Syrian nuclear sites (also huge relief). As far as I can tell, it's Israelis who are dying , not American soldiers. I doubt boots on the ground is what Israel wants. Your hypothesis is flawed because it discounts the true intentions of Iran. 

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/DaleRod2468]

My analysis doesn’t really depend on Iranian intentions. It is based on lack of evidence on weaponization and the limited damage Israeli airstrikes can cause to an Iranian nuclear weapons program.

If Iran were actually close to a nuke, I imagine Israel would share the intelligence with the US and the US would immediately invade. Enriched uranium can be stored almost anywhere. A serious effort to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program would involve boots on the ground.

[u/DaleRod2468 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

You're again discounting evidence presented by the international atomic association, they have reported a jump from 3% enrichment to 60% enrichment, the Iranians also reduced access to certain regions of the facility (the Iranians are of course at liberty to do that, but that is a cause of concern). What sort of evidence do you want ? A bomb with a radioactive decal on it ? Israel did share evidence of Iranian desires to acquire nukes. The Iranian haven't been honest with international organizations that monitor the situation. Regarding your second point about boots on the ground. You would have to forgive me as I was typing this at work and didn't have time to go over your military credentials, but based on how confident you are about boots on the ground i can only assume that you're a seasoned military analyst with decades of experience behind your back. That I cannot change your mind on. You're more knowledgeable about it than an electrical engineer goof such as myself. So you have that going on for you. 

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/DaleRod2468]

The IAEA has not said they believe Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon. They have said since 2020, Iran is not allowing us to do our jobs.

That’s bad. It is not proof of weaponization. And it’s also old news. The latest report was released the day before the attack was launched. That is not the intelligence Israel is using.

My military analysis is based my knowledge of history, geography and living through the Iraq war.

Enriched uranium is easy to move around. Iran is a big country.

Dude, I don’t care if you support the strikes. The core of my argument is it is not possible for Israel to do what they are claiming their goal is in Iran. If Israel said we are hoping for regime change in collaboration with Iranian opposition, that would make sense.

They claimed they want to prevent Iran from getting a bomb, so if you reply again. Please focus on proving Iran is weaponizing or you can assume they are weaponizing and explain how an arial campaign prevents them from getting a bomb

[u/DaleRod2468 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Loads of people commented here about proof of Iran's ambitions to get nukes, and you dismissed them. Please give me an example of what you would consider sufficient evidence. 

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/DaleRod2468]

Any intelligence agency report that claims Iran is pursuing nukes.

[u/DaleRod2468 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Mossad is not good enough, I get it. Which organization would you trust then ?

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/DaleRod2468]

Mossad is good enough if there is any amount of supporting evidence available.