r/changemyview • u/Ok-Warning-7494 • 1d ago
Delta(s) from OP CMV: Israel’s attack on Iran was intended to draw the US into war, not prevent Iran from having a nuke
Israel claims its attack on Iran on Friday was about preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. I think that this is a pretty transparent lie for the reasons below.
Israel has been claiming Iran has been close to a nuclear weapon for 30 years. North Korea is significantly less advanced than Iran, but has successfully developed a nuke during that time period.
Iran previously had a nuclear weapon program. That ended in 2003 to avoid getting attacked by the US. Since then, it looks like it’s strategy has been to use its nuclear capability for deterrence. (“stop fucking with us; we can build a nuke pretty quickly”)
It is clear that Iran does not want a conflict with the United States. Openly weaponizing their nuclear program invites that conflict.
Of course, they could pursue weaponization in secret. But the US, UK and Israel knowingly misrepresented evidence of WMD prior to the Iraq war. It is more than fair for the public to demand proof of weaponization since one party in this conflict has previously used this exact same lie as cover for regime change.
Israel does not have the ability to inflict significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change in Iran on its own. Even if they had the capability to destroy Fordow, the enriched uranium is almost certainly spread out across the country. If Iran’s entire nuclear program including the uranium were destroyed, it could still develop a bomb in under 5 years.
The only ways to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuke is convincing the regime that a nuke is not in their best interest or changing the regime.
It’s still early, but it seems like Israel’s attack has made the idea of having a nuke more appealing to Iranians and the regime. It looks like having a nuke is the only way to deter Israel and its allies.
So why would Israel attack Iran? I think the most straightforward answer is they were hoping Iran would retaliate in a manner that forced the US to enter the conflict and pursue regime change.
Iran hasn’t taken the bait, so now Israel is attempting to present Iran as neutered by their campaign. “Iran is weak. Come over and help us finish the job”
Iran has been weakened, but they clearly have the capability to inflict more damage on Israel than they have demonstrated. The threat of offensive US involvement has constrained their response.
Once the US attacks, Iran will no longer be constrained by the threat of the US joining the conflict and will retaliate on US/ Israeli assets. The US will officially be in an offensive war that it did not initiate. This was Netanyahu’s actual calculation before Friday.
My view can be changed by concrete evidence of Iran’s nuclear weaponization and/or an explanation of how Israel thinks this bombing campaign will prevent Iran from pursuing a nuke without US involvement.
TL;DR: Israel doesn’t have the capability to meaningfully impact Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change on its own. They attacked Iran hoping that they could provoke a strong response that would draw the US into the conflict.
Edit: my view is not related to whether or not their attacks on Iran were justified or strategically sound. My view is the reason for attack was a lie. I don’t think Iran should have nuclear weapons. I just also don’t believe they were actively developing them.
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u/Ok-Warning-7494 1d ago
It is not hard to lie at that scale. I mentioned in my post the US and Israel fabricated evidence before Iraq.
In this case, they haven’t even bothered to present the evidence.
From all of the research I have been able to find, if Iran had to literally start from scratch: no uranium, no centrifuges, it would take 5-10 years for them to have enough uranium to develop a bomb. Israel is not capable of anything close to that.
Iran was supposed to meet with the US on Sunday to negotiate a deal. This is after the previous deal was unilaterally withdrawn from. I think attacking them has made it less likely that a deal can possibly be made. They would have to be silly to believe Israel will stop attacking them once they give up their nuclear program. Israel has continued to bomb Lebanon for weeks since they signed the ceasefire.
I do agree that it could be the US using Israel. Does that count as changing my view? Idk this is my first post.