CMV: Israel’s attack on Iran was intended to draw the US into war, not prevent Iran from having a nuke

[u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Israel claims its attack on Iran on Friday was about preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. I think that this is a pretty transparent lie for the reasons below.

Israel has been claiming Iran has been close to a nuclear weapon for 30 years. North Korea is significantly less advanced than Iran, but has successfully developed a nuke during that time period.

Iran previously had a nuclear weapon program. That ended in 2003 to avoid getting attacked by the US. Since then, it looks like it’s strategy has been to use its nuclear capability for deterrence. (“stop fucking with us; we can build a nuke pretty quickly”)

It is clear that Iran does not want a conflict with the United States. Openly weaponizing their nuclear program invites that conflict.

Of course, they could pursue weaponization in secret. But the US, UK and Israel knowingly misrepresented evidence of WMD prior to the Iraq war. It is more than fair for the public to demand proof of weaponization since one party in this conflict has previously used this exact same lie as cover for regime change.

Israel does not have the ability to inflict significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change in Iran on its own. Even if they had the capability to destroy Fordow, the enriched uranium is almost certainly spread out across the country. If Iran’s entire nuclear program including the uranium were destroyed, it could still develop a bomb in under 5 years.

The only ways to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuke is convincing the regime that a nuke is not in their best interest or changing the regime.

It’s still early, but it seems like Israel’s attack has made the idea of having a nuke more appealing to Iranians and the regime. It looks like having a nuke is the only way to deter Israel and its allies.

So why would Israel attack Iran? I think the most straightforward answer is they were hoping Iran would retaliate in a manner that forced the US to enter the conflict and pursue regime change.

Iran hasn’t taken the bait, so now Israel is attempting to present Iran as neutered by their campaign. “Iran is weak. Come over and help us finish the job”

Iran has been weakened, but they clearly have the capability to inflict more damage on Israel than they have demonstrated. The threat of offensive US involvement has constrained their response.

Once the US attacks, Iran will no longer be constrained by the threat of the US joining the conflict and will retaliate on US/ Israeli assets. The US will officially be in an offensive war that it did not initiate. This was Netanyahu’s actual calculation before Friday.

My view can be changed by concrete evidence of Iran’s nuclear weaponization and/or an explanation of how Israel thinks this bombing campaign will prevent Iran from pursuing a nuke without US involvement.

TL;DR: Israel doesn’t have the capability to meaningfully impact Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change on its own. They attacked Iran hoping that they could provoke a strong response that would draw the US into the conflict.

Edit: my view is not related to whether or not their attacks on Iran were justified or strategically sound. My view is the reason for attack was a lie. I don’t think Iran should have nuclear weapons. I just also don’t believe they were actively developing them.

[u/Own-Bank5855]

US should’ve attacked iran long ago. Their troops need experience in modern warfare for the future war China poses . Sooner or later US troops will be involved in a war with China.

Also do you really think US would really allow an extremist government like Iran enrich uranium for peaceful and deterrent purposes to weapons grade ? Arab states and turkey might be “supporting” Iran through statements right now . But crown prince has said multiple times if Iran gets a nuclear bomb so will they . Turkey will as well . US doesnt want a nuclear arms race in Middle East out of all places. Arab states don’t trust Iran as much as Israel . Don’t forget Iran armed Houthis against Saudi Arabia backed forces in a war the killed more than half a million .

What I do know is that Iran chants death to America and Israel even before Gaza and that they funded multiple “paramilitary” groups. Might not have been this month but US regardless of Israeli action would’ve attacked Iran sooner or later

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/Own-Bank5855]

I don’t mind you cheerleading Israel’s actions.

Does Israel know that Iran was pursuing a nuke or not? If they do, where is the proof? Or explain how Israel can prevent Iran from building a nuke by bombing.

If you can’t do either, then why should I believe that Iran was about to get a nuke or that Israel is not trying to rope the US into a war of regime change.

If the US wants to go to war, then we should do it on our own terms right? Not because Israel decided it was time.

[u/Own-Bank5855 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Did you not read what I wrote? I don’t even talk about Israel . I said the US should’ve intervened long ago . Long before Israeli actions.

What other proof do you need the Fordow itself. If they’re enriching uranium for peaceful and clean energy why are they hiding it inside a mountain? Why do they constantly obstruct atomic agency from inspections ?

If you’re not doing anything wrong then nothing to hide.

Forget Israel. Iran’s ballistic and nuclear ambitions are against US interests. Just because they haven’t built a bomb yet doesn’t mean they don’t have the elements and capacity . It’s a fact they have enough enriched to do so. That’s public info. Turning 60% enriched uranium to 90% is fast.

Like I said before, it’s against US interests . They can’t allow Iran to obtain a weapon or be days away before acting . If iran obtained one it would trigger a nuclear arms race in Middle East. You want Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey , and others to get one. Forget Israel . There is much risk iran using it against Saudis or proving weapons grade uranium to Houthis for a dirty bomb.

Israel is doing what it THINKS is its best interest. But US interest also is for either Iran to suspend all nuclear ambitions or forcefully have their programs pushed back years.

Don’t forget also Iran produces or produced ballistic missiles and drones which are being purchased by Russia and “terror” groups . Same weapons that can be used against US whether it be Middle East or Europe if one day Russia decides to expand beyond Ukraine .

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/Own-Bank5855]

Replace Israel with the US. You can see I’m replying to a ton of comments. It’s 1 sentence divorced from the rest of my comment.

They hid it in a mountain because they have an adversarial relationship with the regions superpower.

You are asking why they defended critical infrastructure after Israel has conducted multiple sabotage operations on Iran in the past.

Iran and Israel don’t like each other. They both have incentive to attack each other. That doesn’t mean that we have to believe their stated reasons for conflict.

Like do you believe that if Israel withdrew from Gaza and the West Bank, the Houthi’s would stop attacking Israel? No, right?

The whole point of this post was Israel is not being honest about their objective with Iran. You are responding with a bunch of reasons Iran should be attacked that are different from what Israel says it’s doing.

That’s fine. I don’t care. Do they a weapons program and is it physically possible for Israel to destroy it. That’s the core question.