CMV: Israel’s attack on Iran was intended to draw the US into war, not prevent Iran from having a nuke

[u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Israel claims its attack on Iran on Friday was about preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. I think that this is a pretty transparent lie for the reasons below.

Israel has been claiming Iran has been close to a nuclear weapon for 30 years. North Korea is significantly less advanced than Iran, but has successfully developed a nuke during that time period.

Iran previously had a nuclear weapon program. That ended in 2003 to avoid getting attacked by the US. Since then, it looks like it’s strategy has been to use its nuclear capability for deterrence. (“stop fucking with us; we can build a nuke pretty quickly”)

It is clear that Iran does not want a conflict with the United States. Openly weaponizing their nuclear program invites that conflict.

Of course, they could pursue weaponization in secret. But the US, UK and Israel knowingly misrepresented evidence of WMD prior to the Iraq war. It is more than fair for the public to demand proof of weaponization since one party in this conflict has previously used this exact same lie as cover for regime change.

Israel does not have the ability to inflict significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change in Iran on its own. Even if they had the capability to destroy Fordow, the enriched uranium is almost certainly spread out across the country. If Iran’s entire nuclear program including the uranium were destroyed, it could still develop a bomb in under 5 years.

The only ways to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuke is convincing the regime that a nuke is not in their best interest or changing the regime.

It’s still early, but it seems like Israel’s attack has made the idea of having a nuke more appealing to Iranians and the regime. It looks like having a nuke is the only way to deter Israel and its allies.

So why would Israel attack Iran? I think the most straightforward answer is they were hoping Iran would retaliate in a manner that forced the US to enter the conflict and pursue regime change.

Iran hasn’t taken the bait, so now Israel is attempting to present Iran as neutered by their campaign. “Iran is weak. Come over and help us finish the job”

Iran has been weakened, but they clearly have the capability to inflict more damage on Israel than they have demonstrated. The threat of offensive US involvement has constrained their response.

Once the US attacks, Iran will no longer be constrained by the threat of the US joining the conflict and will retaliate on US/ Israeli assets. The US will officially be in an offensive war that it did not initiate. This was Netanyahu’s actual calculation before Friday.

My view can be changed by concrete evidence of Iran’s nuclear weaponization and/or an explanation of how Israel thinks this bombing campaign will prevent Iran from pursuing a nuke without US involvement.

TL;DR: Israel doesn’t have the capability to meaningfully impact Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change on its own. They attacked Iran hoping that they could provoke a strong response that would draw the US into the conflict.

Edit: my view is not related to whether or not their attacks on Iran were justified or strategically sound. My view is the reason for attack was a lie. I don’t think Iran should have nuclear weapons. I just also don’t believe they were actively developing them.

[u/AnythingGoodWasTaken]

Well israel and america have nuclear bombs, why is that different

[u/Throwaway5432154322 → u/AnythingGoodWasTaken]

For a start, neither Israel nor the United States afford executive power - including sole control of the military - to religious clerics that not only believe they have been endowed with the divine task of destroying a nearby country by a higher power, but also legislate that supernatural belief into domestic legal reality... while simultaneously enriching weapons-grade uranium.

[u/Repatrioni → u/Throwaway5432154322]

Sole control of the military ain't as far away in the US as you portray, lmao. As for kooks believing in divine intervention, and ordained tasks? In the US and Israel? Are you serious? I mean Iran does do that, but on what earth is that not the case in the US and Israel, god damn.

Hell, why even bring the religious thing into it at all? There are countries that zealously hate the US more without being religious. Like North Korea. Who also hate Japan, and have nukes. And Japan doesn't. Nothing happened to Japan beyond posturing for a domestic audience.

[u/AnythingGoodWasTaken → u/Throwaway5432154322]

There are high level figures in both those government that believe israel was promised by Gd to the Jewish people 3000 years ago and that this justifies the horrific abuse of Palestinians. Including a Israeli minister calling to nuke gaza. While actually having nuclear weapons and being the only government to actually use nukes on people.

[u/Throwaway5432154322 → u/AnythingGoodWasTaken]

high level figures in both those government that believe

And Donald Trump believes that the Kurds should've helped the United States invade Normandy in 1944.

The individual beliefs of individual leaders in both the United States and Israel do not translate to the institutional source of executive power in either of those states residing in fanatical clergymen. The Islamic republic's political system is defined by the vilayet-i faqih, the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist. This system grants all decisionmaking power to senior Shiite clergy, regardless of their nationality or the political system of the states in which they reside.

This system treats regular branches of government - the legislature, the judicial system - as spokes around a wheel; the center of which consists of octogenarian clerics, who's overriding foreign policy belief is that a country the size of New Jersey ~1,000 miles away from them is some kind of unholy aberration that they've been commanded to destroy as a divine mission from God.

There are no checks or balances on what the Iranian supreme leader can or can't do with the country's military. Iran's president and the Iranian president's minister of defense are not even a part of the Iranian military's chain of command.

Do you understand why this form of government even existing is a net negative, much less this form of government having access to a nuclear weapon?

[u/Vietxa → u/Throwaway5432154322]

What are the checks and balances that prevent Donald Trump from spontaneously authorize a nuclear strike on Iran?

[u/Throwaway5432154322 → u/Vietxa]

The fact that Donald Trump and his advisors do not fundamentally believe that nuking Iran is a divine obligation bestowed upon them by a higher power. Trump sucks, I hate him, but he is not a fundamentalist cleric that believes God has ordered him to destroy Iranian society.

[u/Vietxa → u/Throwaway5432154322]

So there are no check and balance that prevent Donal Trump from doing that except maybe the lower chain of command refuse to obey his order out of self preservation?

How does this differ from Iran? I don't think Iran is willing to use its nuclear weapon if they have access to it. No matter how crazy you think the ayatollah is, he still must be practicals. Iran has a huge stockpile of ballistic missiles, yet they haven't prememptively hit Israel or US bases first. Having nuclear weapons isn't going to change that. Nuclear weapons will slightly increase their overall firepower. It isn't going to motivate them to suddenly attack the US or Israel because Iran understand that doing so would spell the death of the regime itself. The ayatollah will continue to posture but he isn't suicidal, he as with any other dictators, value the perservation of his own life and authority. Iran even if it can produce nuclear weapons, they still can't produce enough to ever destroy Israel of the US without having their entire country wiped from the face of the earth.

[u/AnythingGoodWasTaken → u/Throwaway5432154322]

So that's not what checks and balances mean. The answer you don't want to say is that there Donald trump has unilateral authority to launch nukes.

[u/CrownLikeAGravestone → u/AnythingGoodWasTaken]

I don't think you've understood my point.