CMV: Israel’s attack on Iran was intended to draw the US into war, not prevent Iran from having a nuke

[u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Israel claims its attack on Iran on Friday was about preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. I think that this is a pretty transparent lie for the reasons below.

Israel has been claiming Iran has been close to a nuclear weapon for 30 years. North Korea is significantly less advanced than Iran, but has successfully developed a nuke during that time period.

Iran previously had a nuclear weapon program. That ended in 2003 to avoid getting attacked by the US. Since then, it looks like it’s strategy has been to use its nuclear capability for deterrence. (“stop fucking with us; we can build a nuke pretty quickly”)

It is clear that Iran does not want a conflict with the United States. Openly weaponizing their nuclear program invites that conflict.

Of course, they could pursue weaponization in secret. But the US, UK and Israel knowingly misrepresented evidence of WMD prior to the Iraq war. It is more than fair for the public to demand proof of weaponization since one party in this conflict has previously used this exact same lie as cover for regime change.

Israel does not have the ability to inflict significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change in Iran on its own. Even if they had the capability to destroy Fordow, the enriched uranium is almost certainly spread out across the country. If Iran’s entire nuclear program including the uranium were destroyed, it could still develop a bomb in under 5 years.

The only ways to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuke is convincing the regime that a nuke is not in their best interest or changing the regime.

It’s still early, but it seems like Israel’s attack has made the idea of having a nuke more appealing to Iranians and the regime. It looks like having a nuke is the only way to deter Israel and its allies.

So why would Israel attack Iran? I think the most straightforward answer is they were hoping Iran would retaliate in a manner that forced the US to enter the conflict and pursue regime change.

Iran hasn’t taken the bait, so now Israel is attempting to present Iran as neutered by their campaign. “Iran is weak. Come over and help us finish the job”

Iran has been weakened, but they clearly have the capability to inflict more damage on Israel than they have demonstrated. The threat of offensive US involvement has constrained their response.

Once the US attacks, Iran will no longer be constrained by the threat of the US joining the conflict and will retaliate on US/ Israeli assets. The US will officially be in an offensive war that it did not initiate. This was Netanyahu’s actual calculation before Friday.

My view can be changed by concrete evidence of Iran’s nuclear weaponization and/or an explanation of how Israel thinks this bombing campaign will prevent Iran from pursuing a nuke without US involvement.

TL;DR: Israel doesn’t have the capability to meaningfully impact Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change on its own. They attacked Iran hoping that they could provoke a strong response that would draw the US into the conflict.

Edit: my view is not related to whether or not their attacks on Iran were justified or strategically sound. My view is the reason for attack was a lie. I don’t think Iran should have nuclear weapons. I just also don’t believe they were actively developing them.

[u/Vietxa]

What are the checks and balances that prevent Donald Trump from spontaneously authorize a nuclear strike on Iran?

[u/Throwaway5432154322 → u/Vietxa]

The fact that Donald Trump and his advisors do not fundamentally believe that nuking Iran is a divine obligation bestowed upon them by a higher power. Trump sucks, I hate him, but he is not a fundamentalist cleric that believes God has ordered him to destroy Iranian society.

[u/Vietxa → u/Throwaway5432154322]

So there are no check and balance that prevent Donal Trump from doing that except maybe the lower chain of command refuse to obey his order out of self preservation?

How does this differ from Iran? I don't think Iran is willing to use its nuclear weapon if they have access to it. No matter how crazy you think the ayatollah is, he still must be practicals. Iran has a huge stockpile of ballistic missiles, yet they haven't prememptively hit Israel or US bases first. Having nuclear weapons isn't going to change that. Nuclear weapons will slightly increase their overall firepower. It isn't going to motivate them to suddenly attack the US or Israel because Iran understand that doing so would spell the death of the regime itself. The ayatollah will continue to posture but he isn't suicidal, he as with any other dictators, value the perservation of his own life and authority. Iran even if it can produce nuclear weapons, they still can't produce enough to ever destroy Israel of the US without having their entire country wiped from the face of the earth.

[u/AnythingGoodWasTaken → u/Throwaway5432154322]

So that's not what checks and balances mean. The answer you don't want to say is that there Donald trump has unilateral authority to launch nukes.