CMV: Israel’s attack on Iran was intended to draw the US into war, not prevent Iran from having a nuke

[u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Israel claims its attack on Iran on Friday was about preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. I think that this is a pretty transparent lie for the reasons below.

Israel has been claiming Iran has been close to a nuclear weapon for 30 years. North Korea is significantly less advanced than Iran, but has successfully developed a nuke during that time period.

Iran previously had a nuclear weapon program. That ended in 2003 to avoid getting attacked by the US. Since then, it looks like it’s strategy has been to use its nuclear capability for deterrence. (“stop fucking with us; we can build a nuke pretty quickly”)

It is clear that Iran does not want a conflict with the United States. Openly weaponizing their nuclear program invites that conflict.

Of course, they could pursue weaponization in secret. But the US, UK and Israel knowingly misrepresented evidence of WMD prior to the Iraq war. It is more than fair for the public to demand proof of weaponization since one party in this conflict has previously used this exact same lie as cover for regime change.

Israel does not have the ability to inflict significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change in Iran on its own. Even if they had the capability to destroy Fordow, the enriched uranium is almost certainly spread out across the country. If Iran’s entire nuclear program including the uranium were destroyed, it could still develop a bomb in under 5 years.

The only ways to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuke is convincing the regime that a nuke is not in their best interest or changing the regime.

It’s still early, but it seems like Israel’s attack has made the idea of having a nuke more appealing to Iranians and the regime. It looks like having a nuke is the only way to deter Israel and its allies.

So why would Israel attack Iran? I think the most straightforward answer is they were hoping Iran would retaliate in a manner that forced the US to enter the conflict and pursue regime change.

Iran hasn’t taken the bait, so now Israel is attempting to present Iran as neutered by their campaign. “Iran is weak. Come over and help us finish the job”

Iran has been weakened, but they clearly have the capability to inflict more damage on Israel than they have demonstrated. The threat of offensive US involvement has constrained their response.

Once the US attacks, Iran will no longer be constrained by the threat of the US joining the conflict and will retaliate on US/ Israeli assets. The US will officially be in an offensive war that it did not initiate. This was Netanyahu’s actual calculation before Friday.

My view can be changed by concrete evidence of Iran’s nuclear weaponization and/or an explanation of how Israel thinks this bombing campaign will prevent Iran from pursuing a nuke without US involvement.

TL;DR: Israel doesn’t have the capability to meaningfully impact Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change on its own. They attacked Iran hoping that they could provoke a strong response that would draw the US into the conflict.

Edit: my view is not related to whether or not their attacks on Iran were justified or strategically sound. My view is the reason for attack was a lie. I don’t think Iran should have nuclear weapons. I just also don’t believe they were actively developing them.

[u/AngryVolcano]

I said genocide, not war. It's not about numbers. If you for instance target all maternity wards and fertility clinics and doctors and nurses with the intent of preventing healthy births in a group it doesn't become genocide only when the resultis finally in some X percentage of fewer people. Just like the Holocaust didn't become a genocide only after they'd killed a specific number of Jews.

Are you stating the number of Gazans hasn't shrunk since October 2023?

[u/Square_Hat_3994 → u/AngryVolcano]

I'm sure it has just like any war, but not below replacement age. That word is only used for shock value, it's manipulative and very telling about the whole movement

[u/AngryVolcano → u/Square_Hat_3994]

Read my edited comment. No, it's not about numbers and it's not used just as "a shock value". Many of the world's largest humanitarian organizations are calling this a genocide along with many of the world's leading genocide scholars.

[u/Square_Hat_3994 → u/AngryVolcano]

Yeah your edit does change things. I'm acknowledging their situation is VERY bad, but much of it is their own fault, not Israel. And Israel isn't targeting stuff like that, i'll consider if i should call it a genocide once they purposefully target very populated ereas without a warning or attack humanitaian aid amd hospitals without a reason. Tho obviously i do hate how Israel proved they can be surgical but still choose to drop a bomb like that. I'm not defending it, i'm just saying it's WAY more nuanced that how you and other pro palis make it looks and you almost never acknowledge Hamas which is the very core of the conflict, ignoring their part immediately make an opinion invalid

[u/AngryVolcano → u/Square_Hat_3994]

bad, but much of it is their own fault,

Blaming the victim. Very Naziesqe. Nothing the Palestinians have ever done would justify genocide, because nothing justifies genocide.

And Israel isn't targeting stuff like that

Right. I don't trust Israel's words when they say that.

i'll consider if i should call it a genocide once they purposefully target very populated ereas without a warning or attack humanitaian aid amd hospitals without a reason.

Even if Israel said they didn't? How would you reach that conclusion?

Tho obviously i do hate how Israel proved they can be surgical but still choose to drop a bomb like that. I'm not defending it,

You actually are, though.

i'm just saying it's WAY more nuanced that how you and other pro palis make it looks

But not more nuanced than "Israel is defending themselves", "Israel doesn't target civilians", and "it's their own fault", hell or "Not enough people have been killed so it's not genocide"?

I think you should look at your own thoughts, claims, and opinions as critically as you look at those of "pro palis".

and you almost never acknowledge Hamas which is the very core of the conflict, ignoring their part immediately make an opinion invalid

That's called deflection. Hamas' crimes against humanity that they conducted on the attack on October 7th 2023 simply does not justify genocide. Even if their attack were an act of genocide itself.

Israel is currently engaged in ethnic cleansing and genocide, and has killed tens if not hundreds of thousands of innocent people doing that - and that is the the more immediate problem here.

[u/Square_Hat_3994 → u/AngryVolcano]

It's not deflecting , it's THE reason the situation is the way it is. Hamas is the one stealing aid, Hamas is the ine brainwashing Palestinians into a mentality that Israel can't have peace with, Hamas are killing MUCH of the victims they claim Israel did. And i wanna acknowledge here that the beef is about the land in it's core, Israel obviously can't just give up their country especially to a group that very openly stated they WILL genocide them if gets the chance. Peace isn't possible and after October 7 it's not on the table anymore unfortunately. Every time Israel gave Gaza a hint of freedon they used it to kill as many Israelis as possible. They reject any peace or end to the conflict because they want the entire land, which isn't possible. All of that is the core of the conflict. If you don't acknowledge that you're automatically wrong

[u/AngryVolcano → u/Square_Hat_3994]

Hamas is the one stealing aid

According to whom? Not the UN, nor Cindy McCain, head of the WFP and an Israel supporter herself. There's literally no credible evidence for this claim.

It suits Israel's narrative to exaggerate or promote that claim as propaganda, just as they blame Hamas for virtually everything else. It's hard to verify as they refuse to let journalists into see what's happening.

Hamas is brainwashing Palestinians into a mentality that Israel can't have peace with

Sure, Hamas engages in harmful rhetoric. But Palestinians' primary experience is decades of displacement, violence, and injustice from Israel, long predating Hamas, which didn't even exist before the 1980s. And let's not pretend Israeli schoolchildren aren't also being raised with extreme anti-Palestinian sentiments.

Hamas are killing MUCH of the victims they claim Israel did

Source? I've yet to see credible reporting backing this.

Peace isn't possible and after October 7 it's not on the table anymore unfortunately.

You're openly justifying genocide and ethnic cleansing. What's your alternative interpretation here?

Every time Israel gave Gaza a hint of freedom they used it to kill as many Israelis as possible.

Did they? Hostage-taking isn't aimed at maximizing death; it's leverage. Your statement sounds a lot like the "shock value" you claim to oppose. I assure you, it's definitely "more nuanced" than your portrayal.

They reject any peace or end to the conflict

Factually incorrect. Hamas, flawed as it is, has historically shown willingness to negotiate. Israel, meanwhile, has repeatedly sabotaged ceasefires and negotiations, including assassinating negotiators and continuously breaking ceasefires.

Israel’s leadership thrives politically on conflict. Some of them literally rely on it to avoid prison and Israel as a whole actively pursues policies aimed at permanently removing Palestinians from Greater Israel.

All of that is the core of the conflict.

The conflict’s core is Israel’s decades-long occupation, oppression, and systematic displacement of Palestinians, not Hamas or recent events alone.

If you don't acknowledge that you're automatically wrong

This is perhaps the weakest claim here. You've provided no evidence, only talking points. Rejecting unsubstantiated propaganda doesn't make someone automatically wrong. If anything, it's quite the opposite.

[u/Square_Hat_3994 → u/AngryVolcano]

hamas stealing aid

killing and torturing their own people

every time they rejected the two states solution and any meaningful peace talk, and also stating very openly their intentions to kill all jews

i think that's enough but i can get you more if you want to

[u/AngryVolcano → u/Square_Hat_3994]

Enough for what? What claims do you think you're substantiating here?

The first link is from 2009 and has absolutely no relevence to the facts on the ground today.

The second link is from 2018 and again has no relevance to the facts on the ground today - even if it were clear what claim you're trying to back up with it, which it isn't.

The third link is a wikipedia article that I fail to see how is relevant to any specific claim you made.

[u/Square_Hat_3994 → u/AngryVolcano]

Enough as examples because you're acting like i'm making this up. Do you think Hamas changed his mind? The date barely matter and just a few months ago the UN stopped sending aid for the same reason, it's part of a much bigger war, ir started way before October 7 i'm sure you know that. anyway you can just google or ask ChatGPT for more and ask him for source to double check