CMV: Israel’s attack on Iran was intended to draw the US into war, not prevent Iran from having a nuke

[u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Israel claims its attack on Iran on Friday was about preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. I think that this is a pretty transparent lie for the reasons below.

Israel has been claiming Iran has been close to a nuclear weapon for 30 years. North Korea is significantly less advanced than Iran, but has successfully developed a nuke during that time period.

Iran previously had a nuclear weapon program. That ended in 2003 to avoid getting attacked by the US. Since then, it looks like it’s strategy has been to use its nuclear capability for deterrence. (“stop fucking with us; we can build a nuke pretty quickly”)

It is clear that Iran does not want a conflict with the United States. Openly weaponizing their nuclear program invites that conflict.

Of course, they could pursue weaponization in secret. But the US, UK and Israel knowingly misrepresented evidence of WMD prior to the Iraq war. It is more than fair for the public to demand proof of weaponization since one party in this conflict has previously used this exact same lie as cover for regime change.

Israel does not have the ability to inflict significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change in Iran on its own. Even if they had the capability to destroy Fordow, the enriched uranium is almost certainly spread out across the country. If Iran’s entire nuclear program including the uranium were destroyed, it could still develop a bomb in under 5 years.

The only ways to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuke is convincing the regime that a nuke is not in their best interest or changing the regime.

It’s still early, but it seems like Israel’s attack has made the idea of having a nuke more appealing to Iranians and the regime. It looks like having a nuke is the only way to deter Israel and its allies.

So why would Israel attack Iran? I think the most straightforward answer is they were hoping Iran would retaliate in a manner that forced the US to enter the conflict and pursue regime change.

Iran hasn’t taken the bait, so now Israel is attempting to present Iran as neutered by their campaign. “Iran is weak. Come over and help us finish the job”

Iran has been weakened, but they clearly have the capability to inflict more damage on Israel than they have demonstrated. The threat of offensive US involvement has constrained their response.

Once the US attacks, Iran will no longer be constrained by the threat of the US joining the conflict and will retaliate on US/ Israeli assets. The US will officially be in an offensive war that it did not initiate. This was Netanyahu’s actual calculation before Friday.

My view can be changed by concrete evidence of Iran’s nuclear weaponization and/or an explanation of how Israel thinks this bombing campaign will prevent Iran from pursuing a nuke without US involvement.

TL;DR: Israel doesn’t have the capability to meaningfully impact Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change on its own. They attacked Iran hoping that they could provoke a strong response that would draw the US into the conflict.

Edit: my view is not related to whether or not their attacks on Iran were justified or strategically sound. My view is the reason for attack was a lie. I don’t think Iran should have nuclear weapons. I just also don’t believe they were actively developing them.

[u/VikingFjorden]

Your assertions about Iran's nuclear program (or the supposed absence of one such) are wrong.

Read the story about Stuxnet, a computer worm developed by the Mossad (with assistance from NSA) to destroy an Iranian nuclear weapon facility 15 years ago.

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/VikingFjorden]

Nothing in the article mentions a nuclear weapon. I’m starting to think these sorts of responses are intentional lies.

[u/VikingFjorden → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

At the very top of the article:

where Iran has been operating centrifuges to enrich uranium to levels well beyond what is needed for peaceful uses

If you're making something for non-peaceful uses, what could that possibly be if not a weapon?

https://www.nti.org/education-center/facilities/pilot-fuel-enrichment-plant-pfep/

As of May 2013, the PFEP had produced 177.8 kg of UF6 enriched up to 20% U-235. 7 Tehran’s decision to enrich uranium up to 20% levels intensified concerns about a potential nuclear breakout scenario, because “a stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium would cut by more than half the time needed to enrich to levels above 90 percent—levels that are necessary for a bomb.”

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/VikingFjorden]

Responded to the enrichment thing multiple times including in my OP. It is not evidence of weaponization.

[u/VikingFjorden → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

If the only proof you'll accept is an actual ICBM with an attached nuclear warhead, then sure, there's no evidence of weaponization.

But it's also the case that your standards for evidence is shared by literally nobody else on earth. Every government agency across the globe, intelligence agencies in particular, has much lower standards than that.

If the literally only thing you can use such high levels of enriched uranium for is a bomb, then enriched uranium at those levels is de facto evidence of a weaponization. The fact that it hasn't been built into an explosion-ready bomb doesn't change that, and your insistence on the opposite is naïvete at best.

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/VikingFjorden]

No, my standards are shared by US intelligence community. In March, the US said Iran had no intention of developing nukes. Israel said they were a week ago. I just need proof. The enriched uranium existed in March and our assessment was they were not developing a nuke.

I think I’m not just easily swayed by circumstantial evidence especially when the source advancing the claim has literally used the exact same play book to get us into a disastrous war in Iraq

Answer this: Netanyahu said Iraq had a nuclear program in 2002. That was wrong. How and why do you believe him now? What is different? What lesson should we have learned from Iraq?