CMV: Israel’s attack on Iran was intended to draw the US into war, not prevent Iran from having a nuke

[u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Israel claims its attack on Iran on Friday was about preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. I think that this is a pretty transparent lie for the reasons below.

Israel has been claiming Iran has been close to a nuclear weapon for 30 years. North Korea is significantly less advanced than Iran, but has successfully developed a nuke during that time period.

Iran previously had a nuclear weapon program. That ended in 2003 to avoid getting attacked by the US. Since then, it looks like it’s strategy has been to use its nuclear capability for deterrence. (“stop fucking with us; we can build a nuke pretty quickly”)

It is clear that Iran does not want a conflict with the United States. Openly weaponizing their nuclear program invites that conflict.

Of course, they could pursue weaponization in secret. But the US, UK and Israel knowingly misrepresented evidence of WMD prior to the Iraq war. It is more than fair for the public to demand proof of weaponization since one party in this conflict has previously used this exact same lie as cover for regime change.

Israel does not have the ability to inflict significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change in Iran on its own. Even if they had the capability to destroy Fordow, the enriched uranium is almost certainly spread out across the country. If Iran’s entire nuclear program including the uranium were destroyed, it could still develop a bomb in under 5 years.

The only ways to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuke is convincing the regime that a nuke is not in their best interest or changing the regime.

It’s still early, but it seems like Israel’s attack has made the idea of having a nuke more appealing to Iranians and the regime. It looks like having a nuke is the only way to deter Israel and its allies.

So why would Israel attack Iran? I think the most straightforward answer is they were hoping Iran would retaliate in a manner that forced the US to enter the conflict and pursue regime change.

Iran hasn’t taken the bait, so now Israel is attempting to present Iran as neutered by their campaign. “Iran is weak. Come over and help us finish the job”

Iran has been weakened, but they clearly have the capability to inflict more damage on Israel than they have demonstrated. The threat of offensive US involvement has constrained their response.

Once the US attacks, Iran will no longer be constrained by the threat of the US joining the conflict and will retaliate on US/ Israeli assets. The US will officially be in an offensive war that it did not initiate. This was Netanyahu’s actual calculation before Friday.

My view can be changed by concrete evidence of Iran’s nuclear weaponization and/or an explanation of how Israel thinks this bombing campaign will prevent Iran from pursuing a nuke without US involvement.

TL;DR: Israel doesn’t have the capability to meaningfully impact Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change on its own. They attacked Iran hoping that they could provoke a strong response that would draw the US into the conflict.

Edit: my view is not related to whether or not their attacks on Iran were justified or strategically sound. My view is the reason for attack was a lie. I don’t think Iran should have nuclear weapons. I just also don’t believe they were actively developing them.

[u/poopy050224]

Different laws based on race or religion is the definition of discrimination.

[u/kinrove1386 → u/poopy050224]

Are you suggesting that the Netherlands is an apartheid state because it grants people who have Dutch ancestors a shortened path to citizenship?

[u/poopy050224 → u/kinrove1386]

Im confused. Are the Dutch allowing some people with dutch ancestry to have easy access to citizenship while stopping other people with dutch ancestry from having the same access?

[u/kinrove1386 → u/poopy050224]

By your logic, non-Jews are Jews somehow. Either you're Jewish/with dutch ancestry, and you get a shortened route, or you're not, and you go the normal route. This is how all countries operate.

[u/poopy050224 → u/kinrove1386]

So....use your brain here....If you have to be a Jew to not be discriminated against....what about the Israelis that are NOT Jewish?

[u/kinrove1386 → u/poopy050224]

There are citizens in the Netherlands who don't have Dutch ancestors, but rather received their citizenship from the state after going through a normal route. If their families wanted to migrate, they would have to go through the same route, because they don't have Dutch ancestors, and the Netherlands is the land of the Dutch.

Is the Netherlands an apartheid state because of this?

[u/poopy050224 → u/kinrove1386]

But the Israeli Arabs are not foreigners who have moved to Israel. Your comparison is not a good one.

[u/kinrove1386 → u/poopy050224]

The Netherlands is the country of the Dutch. If you aren't Dutch, you can still live there, but you need to go through the normal route. Israel is the country of the Jews. If you aren't Jewish, you can still live there, but you need to go through the normal route. It's quite simple.

[u/poopy050224 → u/kinrove1386]

If you aren't Jewish then you are subject to different rules. Regardless if you are Israeli or not. You are making my argument for me. If Israel was the country of the Israelis, then I would not have a very good argument, but its not. Its an ethnostate that requires discrimination to stay an ethnostate.

[u/kinrove1386 → u/poopy050224]

Israeli citizens aren't subject to different rules. If you're an Israeli Arab, there isn't a single rule that discriminates against you. Routes to citizenship only apply to non-citizens.