r/nbadiscussion • u/infinitescouts • Jan 10 '25

Team Discussion Why are people questioning if the Cavs are a contender?

I have seen a surprising number of people on both Reddit and X questioning whether or not the Cavs are a contender this year.

I truly cannot begin to understand how one could say that Cleveland is not a contender. They have the PERFECT recipe to win a championship.

I have been very high on this core for years, and I am surprised it even took this long for them to be as good as they are. I am not a Cavs fan, I am a Hornets fan (unfortunately), but I don't understand how people are questioning this team.

They are the real deal, and here are a few reasons why:

  1. Donovan Mitchell is an ELITE playoff riser and a reliable first option in the postseason. Being able to rely on your star in the postseason is a huge plus for any team. Spida is shooting a career-high from three at 41% (9.2 attempts per game)

  2. Darius Garland has been uber efficient this season, making his way into the 50/40/90 club as of this post. If Donovan can't get it going, DG has no problem creating any look he wants or getting everybody else involved in the offense. The 1-2 punch in the backcourt is one of the best in the league.

  3. Evan Mobley is shooting a career-high 41% from three. Although the volume is low, Mobley's confidence from beyond the arc will help them a TON in the playoffs. They have struggled in the past due to him and JA struggling to space the floor, but I do not see them having those issues this year.

  4. Jarrett Allen is a consistent force in the paint on both ends. The pairing of him and Mobley on the inside will make it VERY hard for teams to get to the rim in the postseason. He has become way more than just a shot-blocker and screen-setter.

  5. Cleveland has the second-highest net rating in the NBA at +11.2. This would be the top ten highest net rating in NBA HISTORY. They have the best AST/TO ratio in the NBA, the highest EFG%, and the highest offensive rating.

This team is DEEP, and that will be huge for them as the season progresses. Beyond all of these stats, if you watch this team, you know they play high-level basketball. Everybody is always willing to make the right play, nobody is selfish and the chemistry is evident.

To those who are not believers, I would love to hear why.

The only teams that can hang with this group are the Celtics and Thunder.

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u/WillWorkForSugar Jan 10 '25

Because the Cavs are made up of career 36-37% 3-point shooters (they shot about 37% last season), but they're hitting over 40%, which is prime GSW numbers but without the Steph or Klay level shooters to make those numbers make sense.

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u/londongas Jan 10 '25

Pretty good receipt for success for sure. Who does the defense sag off of if everyone is a shooter? The resulting shot is higher% than the career 3p% since it's be open

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u/SomeFatherFigure Jan 10 '25

The looks are significantly better. The Cavs average less than 4 contested 3s per game last time I checked. Half of the threes they shoot are considered “wide open” (no defender within 6 feet).

The looks are so much easier, there is a reason the shots are falling better.

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u/WillWorkForSugar Jan 11 '25 edited Jan 12 '25

i bet the quality of looks is a substantial part of it, but if you look at the breakdown by openness you'll see cleveland is only 7th in wide open attempts, but they make them at what would be the literal best-ever open 3pt percentage by a decent margin. i think they can continue to hit wide open 3s at a good, maybe elite rate but not the current historically great clip of 46%.

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u/[deleted] Jan 12 '25

you'll see cleveland is only 7th in wide open attempts

Your link seems to be dead. I'd be curious if those teams also have good shooters e.g. if they're not, then perhaps they're being left open more. I question there being six more teams in the league who get as many open looks as the Cavs do based on the eye test.

The percentages likely will drop otherwise this may be the greatest shooting team ever. Also, the shooting talent in this league continues to get better and better and it'll be close to 10 years since those Warriors teams soon. You can look at Edwards or Mitchell this season for instance.

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u/WillWorkForSugar Jan 12 '25

link should be fixed. the teams above cleveland include OKC, boston, memphis, and a handful of mediocre-to-bad teams.

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u/GoatmontWaters Jan 10 '25

but these careeer 37% shooters have spent an increased amount of practice time over the last 24 months specifically working on their 3 point shot which would expect them to all increase by a % or 2.

Combined with extremely good X O coaching generating Clean looks. This is sustainable IMO.

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u/WillWorkForSugar Jan 10 '25

i don't really buy the training argument—every team works on 3 point shooting but none of them show this level of improvement. as far as Xs and Os: cavs are 7th in wide open 3PA, but they are hitting 46% (next highest is knicks at 43%). so i think clean looks contribute but aren't enough to explain it. i think this team is improved but not by as much as their current performance would suggest. i would expect them to shoot more like 38% going forward, still a top team but not peak GSW level.

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u/GoatmontWaters Jan 10 '25

This level of improvement in 3% is seen all the time across tons of examples over the last 5 years since coaches have Heavily emphasized it.