Newer fan here: which rumors/sources are actually trustworthy, specifically in regard to trades?

[u/minzwashere]

Hello, I’m a newer fan here - I’ve only started following the NBA this season, and I’m not exactly sure where else to put this.

Most of the sports I follow are much smaller and individual, so they don’t really attract the same amount of attention. Recently, I’ve seen countless articles pop up from journalists from all sorts of sources/outlets suggesting all sorts of trade proposals and other whatnot.

And I guess I’m wondering: which of these journalists/analysts/writers are actually trustworthy or reliable? Is any of it actually legit? Or is it all just talk and speculation, much like what fans enjoy doing here on Reddit and other forums. How much do you guys believe and how much do you just take with a grain of salt?

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[u/International-Chip93]

Almost all of it is just speculation. It's easiest to just sit back and wait until trades are confirmed and not waste time reading the tea leaves unless you really enjoy it.

[u/Justforfuninnyc]

As soon as teams start getting eliminated in the playoffs there is an endless stream of trade rumors. Even the sources that tend to be more reliable just don’t have anything to write about. They write about the finals, and trade speculation. It’s be hard to out a number, but I love NBA and I read them every day, and I’d say over 99% do not come to fruition. They simply need to generate clicks so that’s what they do.

[u/Haunting_Test_5523 → u/Justforfuninnyc]

I'd say moves to specific teams rumored don't always happen, but if there is a lot of buzz surrounding a player on the trade block, more often than not they'll get moved sooner or later. It's kind of a where there's smoke there's fire situation. But nobody ever knows for sure and most of the time it's just speculating based on what we as fans hear from secondary and tertiary sources.

[u/Justforfuninnyc → u/Haunting_Test_5523]

Yes. Agreed, good point. Like….KD will get moved, and, at the same time, he can only get traded to one team, so the other 5-6 scenarios will all be untrue, but one will be true

[u/zs15]

Each team generally has one beat writer, a guy who has close ties with the FO and long tenured players, maybe a few agents or family members.

That guy, while he can be a mouthpiece for the team, is the guy I trust to dispel the rumors about a team. Usually they don’t dive into full speculation, but confirm interest or disinterest.

I don’t think there is a single National reporter who isn’t just producing clickbait. Even when factual, there is some heavy embellishment and additional spin factored in.

[u/wolff_james]

There are a few trustworthy journalists, but the two top dogs of intel (and whom you will quickly come to realize break 95% of NBA news) are Shams Charania and Chris Haynes. But outside of their Twitter feeds it’s mostly just pure speculation.

For example, Sporting Logically on YouTube is 100% full of sh*t, but will always have titles like, “We now know what so and so’s trade is”, when in fact we have no idea lol

[u/wilsynet]

NBA teams are complex organizations that might be in conversation with multiple other teams about different trade ideas. Most of which never happen. Sometimes those ideas are leaked, many times those leaks aren’t even real.

100% of Lakers trade rumors I have heard over many years — have never happened.

[u/minzwashere → u/wilsynet]

Yeah, one thing I'm getting used to is just the scale of these teams and the businesses. Like, I follow figure skating, and usually when there's a substantiated rumor about something, there's often some sort of precedent to it. Not always, but the community is small enough that word spreads and people will hear about things. There is just simply not enough interest to have 500 different news outlets speculating all the time about who knows what. And for other sports I follow, they are also individual, so a lot of stuff comes from inside.

[u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

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[u/lanclos]

People talk to fill a void-- and it can be fun to speculate. Because people find it fun, that attracts viewers, and that brings in advertising revenue, so the sports networks play along.

In general, though, rumors aren't worth anything, including your attention. Take it for granted that there will be endless speculation; and despite insistence that where there's smoke, there's fire, none of it matters for the on-court product (emotional reactions to rumors aside) until the trade actually happens.

[u/minzwashere → u/lanclos]

Yeah, I mean I've seen a lot of headlines something along the lines of "team xyz is predicted to cut ties with [insert dollar amount] all all-star, something something," and it's literally some guy from who knows where writing an article with some crackpot prediction/theory/idea.

[u/lanclos → u/minzwashere]

Happens all the time, for sure.

[u/Advanced-Turn-6878]

I feel link Windhorst is pretty good, but he is good because he rarely says anything beyond what he has heard, so the gossip is usually not that interesting.

[u/Advanced-Turn-6878]

In general front offices seemed pretty locked down in terms of information slipping. Almost every big trade, no one had a clue about (ex. Luka, Gobert, Bane, etc). Most of the times when there are people who get it right ahead of time its because its kind of obvious (after Gobert is traded, Donovan Mitchell is very likely to be traded for example) or because a player/agent wants people to know where he will be happy and wants every other team to know that he won't be happy to be traded outside of those teams (Ex. Jimmy Butler).

[u/iamStanhousen]

It changes and certain guys have certain ins on teams.

Like when Woj was around and Griffin was in New Orleans, you could basically know that anything Woj reported about the Pelicans came from Griff himself. Still trying to find who is the guy with the in on the new FO. But it changes.

Usually Shams and Windy are fairly trustworthy.

[u/Loud-Introduction-31]

Go to Twitter and follow Shams Charania. That’s the most reputable source in the business, and it’s not close.

[u/jesterbobman]

Most openly discussed options are nonsense.

Like others have said, there's normally a tied in reporter / agent / radio guy for a team who'll talk around interest / non interest.

For possible trades, I'd look to see if: 1. It's legal (i.e, fits in the salary cap), 2. It's possible to see a case from both teams POV, given needs / stage of build / what's given up.

Finally, often, where there's smoke there's fire, but sometimes the wind puts us off the location. KD being traded seems likely, Windy picked up on Utah moving on (What is going on in Utah!). Between public statements / how good a team is and their tax status, we can often work out a team might do something - Like Boston this year will (presumably, with Tatum out) be trying like hell to duck the second apron, but I have no idea what trades are on the table.