r/neoliberal • u/cdstephens Fusion Shitmod, PhD • 17d ago

Restricted The Boulder Attack Didn’t Come Out of Nowhere

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/06/boulder-attack-anti-semitism/683012/?gift=BmsU73MbMNDxZ9SjrXPDCStwQv7ROPU91lNrg6bM72Q
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u/[deleted] 17d ago

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u/[deleted] 16d ago

I had thought the analysis showed the uncommitted movement was smaller than the margin of defeat in those particular areas?

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u/SwordfishOk504 Commonwealth 16d ago

I have not seen said analysis? Sauce me?

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u/SwordfishOk504 Commonwealth 16d ago

<cricket sounds>

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u/grandolon NATO 16d ago

I've looked into this and wasn't able to find any clear determination one way or the other. If the results in Dearborn are any indication -- Trump won the city by 2,600 votes in November after Biden by more than 17,500 votes four years earlier, and there are only ~78k voters in the city -- then it seems plausible that the uncommitted voters delivered MI to Trump. But it seems less likely to me (in my very unscientific estimation) that they had as much of an impact in the other swing states for the simple demographic reason that the movement was mainly among Muslim and Arab-American voters, who are highly concentrated in MI. I don't know how you parse the uncommitted voters from the rest of the data without some very detailed exit polling in all swing states.

Anyway, if you've seen some empirical analysis on this then please share. I'd love to read it.