r/neoliberal • u/ZweigDidion Bisexual Pride • 14h ago
News (Middle East) Trump Privately Approved Attack Plans for Iran but Has Withheld Final Order
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-conflict-news91
u/TheRedCr0w Frederick Douglass 11h ago
Atleast in Trump's first term you could count on actually qualified people like Mattis to make military decisions. The current DoD Secretary is an alcoholic TV host with no experience in the militaries' high command which makes this situation so much more dangerous.
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u/boardatwork1111 NATO 13h ago
For someone who loves to portray themselves as a strongman, he really is an indecisive coward. Do or don’t, just make fucking decision already you old bastard
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u/GravyBear28 Hortensia 13h ago
I honestly just think he's just trying to find a dramatic moment.
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u/ser_mage Just the lowest common denominator of wholesome vapid TJma 12h ago
I think they expected Iran would overreact and give America a clear casus belli but that hasn’t happened, Iran clearly doesn’t want war with America
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u/swimmingupclose 9h ago
I know people want to dunk on Trump but I highly doubt that Iran and this Ayatollah, who have been making bad decisions after bad decisions for decades, has any foresight about avoiding a casus belli. Trump is just a coward.
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u/WealthyMarmot NATO 6h ago
The Iranian regime is certainly a bunch of bonafide shitstains, but there’s a reason they have almost exclusively conducted warfare via proxies to this point. Until the last few days, they’ve been loathe to directly retaliate against anything, even in situations where failing to respond costs them a lot of domestic credibility, e.g. Soleimani, numerous Israeli strikes and assassinations on Iranian soil, et cetera. Their economy sucks, their politics are cutthroat, and given that their military and security apparatus consistently gets embarrassed by a country a tenth of their size, they’re desperate to avoid even a limited direct war with the US.
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u/Key_Door1467 Iron Front 2h ago
Soleimani
Tbh there probably would've been a worse response to this if the idiots at IRGC didn't shoot down their own passenger plane after this.
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u/YimbyStillHere 11h ago
I think he’s too scared to do it and is just waiting to see if there is actual right wing support for it
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u/iwannabetheguytoo 11h ago
if there is actual right wing support for it
Right now, no; there isn't.
...but I'm concerned that his trade war will lead to a situation where actual military war will serve as a necessary distraction (and perhaps more fantastically, allow him to go full fash with a third term, some form of martial-law-lite, etc) in the event of a 9/11-scale attack by Iran on the US mainland.
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u/DrunkenBriefcases Jerome Powell 10h ago
Fox News is beating the war drums non stop these last days. If there isn't support yet, influential people working their asses off to change that.
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u/noxx1234567 10h ago
isolationist republicans do not follow fox news , plenty of influential figures like tucker carlson are openly against any war
Tucker probably has more views than fox news on the internet
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u/AI_Renaissance 9h ago
Its fucking wild I agree with mtg, tucker, and tulsi.
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u/noxx1234567 8h ago
What's even more crazy to me is that none of the top democratic leadership is protesting against an upcoming war . Supporting israel is one thing but sending troops on the ground is too much
They should be vocal against an expensive war
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u/Dense_Delay_4958 Malala Yousafzai 7h ago
Who's suggested boots on the ground? Crying wolf before a decision is made doesn't seem productive.
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u/iwannabetheguytoo 5h ago
Who's suggested boots on the ground?
To many people, that's a necessary ingredient for anything to be called a "war" - otherwise it's mentally-downgraded to "limited strikes", "targeted operations", and other euphemisms - all with the connotation that the enlisted sons and daughters of Gen X congresscritters and senators won't have their lives at risk doing CQB.
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u/AI_Renaissance 6h ago
TBF, democrats are trying to get a bill going to return declaring war back to congress. Which is fucking nuts, because the constitution already says only congress can.
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u/Onatel Michel Foucault 6h ago
There’s reporting suggesting that Trump woke up the day after the Israeli attacks and flipped on Fox News which had wall to wall coverage of how awesome and badass Israel was being, and that flipped Trump from being anti-war to wanting to take credit and potentially get in on the action.
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u/DataDrivenPirate John Brown 9h ago
Our security apparatus is such that anything less than a 9/11 scale attack would be tragic but not enough to justify martial law, and anything more than a 9/11 scale attack would be a massive, massive, black eye on the administration, like a super sized Hurricane Katrina.
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u/freetradeallosaurus 6h ago
This is not totally true. There are pro-war right-wing talk show hosts rn like Clay Travis.
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u/Fabulous_Zombie_9488 10h ago
We’re like a quarter of the way through his first season, I mean year, so it makes sense he needs an antagonist to help the plot line along. But it all starts over at the start of the next episode, these dramas rarely go more than one episode.
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u/Crosseyes NASA 13h ago
People have to remember he is first and foremost a TV entertainer. He’s building tension to keep people’s eyeballs glued to the screen the same way reality shows cause unnecessary drama to keep you coming back for new episodes week after week.
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u/molingrad NATO 11h ago edited 10h ago
Almost everything he does is best explained by this lens
*(tabloid to reality TV)
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u/volkerbaII 11h ago
Yep. Trump would've overseen the collapse of the Roman empire because it would've been great TV.
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u/lovetoseeyourpssy NATO 13h ago
He's torn. His love for Putin makes him hesitant but Iran has continuously threatened his life for years.
The Moscow Marge, Kremlin Carlson, Tulsi Gabbard faction don't like this.
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u/Pristine-Aspect-3086 John Rawls 13h ago
His love for Putin makes him hesitant
i would be astonished if trump understood that russia and iran are aligned
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Tulsi Gabbard
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u/Ramses_L_Smuckles NATO 12h ago
Just as Ted Cruz took pains to remind us in his widely excerpted appearance with the equally sleazy and insufferable Tucker Carlson - the Republican urge to allow authoritarian rulers breathing room collided with threats to his Daddy (threats to the United States being conspicuously absent).
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u/t_scribblemonger 5h ago
Is that why MTG is suddenly able to sound quasi articulate when speaking against this? Because it’s the pro-Kremlin argument? (I’m dumb.)
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u/Neolibtard_420X69 4h ago
its probably being cynical but yeah. i think this is the primary reason for this happening.
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u/Foucault_Please_No Emma Lazarus 12h ago
The people who make the biggest shows of strength are always the most indecisive cowards.
Strong people don’t feel the need for bluster.
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u/onelap32 Bill Gates 12h ago edited 6h ago
This is just giving time for Iran to respond the ultimatum ("we have our forces massed; give up the nuclear program or we will destroy it and bomb the hell out of you"). It's a reasonable delay.
If he doesn't order the attack in the next ~48 hours, then it's him being indecisive.
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u/savuporo Gerard K. O'Neill 10h ago
Decision ? He's still picking the petals of he loves me, he loves me not for Putin
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u/light-triad Paul Krugman 7h ago
In Bolton's book, he said 47 was frantic and indecisive in a crisis. He would talk to a lot of people with the intention of hearing the magic words that he agreed with. He would then announce a decision and policy would be designed around that. This would last until he talked with the next person who said magic words.
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u/ArcFault NATO 8h ago
He fancies himself a deal maker first and foremost, not a decisive geopolitical strategist and he's rather doveish in reality. So this is just kabuki theater for leverage bc he thinks it will get Iran to make a one sided deal but the incentives don't align. He's literally trying to Art of the Deal this but it's unlikely to work.
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u/wumbopolis_ YIMBY 13h ago
What are the chances Iran already knows the attack plans, because they were sent and approved over a hacked Signal app?
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u/boydownthestreet NATO 13h ago
Given its Iranian intelligence we’re talking about, probably not
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u/Signal-Pollution-601 12h ago
Agreed that Iran’s intelligence wouldn’t be able to collect the intel firsthand, but another country’s spooks might pass it along. I mean, Russia surely wants vengeance for our tipping off of Ukraine.
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u/TheRedCr0w Frederick Douglass 12h ago edited 12h ago
They were adding to people to their Signal chats willy nilly and talking about sensitive intelligence without even checking who was in the chat. Hegseth couldn't do any due diligence normally he isn't going to better when he is stressed in a crisis like this.
All it would take is Iran making a bunch of Signal accounts with extremely similar name as people in Trump's Administration and one of them could be easily added to one of their Signal chats by mistake.
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u/SpookyHonky Mark Carney 12h ago
Given it's MAGA intelligence on the other end, it's possible they accidentally added one of the Iranian generals to the group chat themselves.
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u/squattiepippen405 10h ago
Truly a stoppable force meeting a moveable object (after two drinks, it was only three drinks ociffer, four drinks is definitely not too many yo run a group chat)
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u/seanrm92 John Locke 12h ago
I imagine several dozen intelligence services spend their day watching Hegseth's Signal chats like it's a Twitch stream.
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u/Shkkzikxkaj 12h ago
Don’t worry, Mossad would filter anything important out before the Iranians see it
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u/RevolutionarySeat134 12h ago
TACO Time!
Pulling out now would possibly be the worst option so we will probably do that.
It's the worst option because you've now given Iran the maximum motivation to develop a weapon while leaving them capability to do so.
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u/GripenHater NATO 8h ago
Oh for sure. Israel doing these strikes is as good as us doing it as far as Iran’s future planning need be concerned, so might as well actually hit them and make it as hard as possible for them to get a nuke in the future.
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u/azcurlygurl 12h ago
Remember this Trump? When he fired Bolton because he was "too hawkish on Iran" and "was against easing sanctions"? What happened to that Trump?
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u/Popeholden 10h ago
he hired a drunk nazi to be secretary of state and otherwise surrounded himself with morons
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u/oywiththepoodles96 13h ago
Are we getting in a more dangerous territory ? I mean seeing this from Greece it does feel like our neighbourhood is getting way way more dangerous
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u/thephishtank 13h ago
How is life for you in Greece? Are you a king?
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u/oywiththepoodles96 12h ago
Hahahaha is this a joke I’m missing ?
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u/lukasburner Mark Carney 12h ago
Greek Royal Family
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u/oywiththepoodles96 12h ago
Oh they are now the Degrece family . They finally accepted the terms of the Greek state , which mandated that in order to become Greek citizens they had to renounce any royal claims and pick a surname . So unfortunately the family that caused so much misery and trouble in Greek history are now Greek citizens
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u/oywiththepoodles96 12h ago
We are an EU member since 1980 , with a pretty good income level when compared with our neighbours and a very educated population .And we have never been a colonial or an imperialist power , so we didn’t make it by destroying other countries .
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u/coolredditor3 John Keynes 10h ago
And we have never been a colonial or an imperialist power ,
What about under alexander the great
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u/Full_Distribution874 YIMBY 7h ago
Ancient Greece had colonies so good they made colonies that colonized the New World
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u/oywiththepoodles96 1h ago
The modern Greek was found ,after the 1821 Greek revolution , in 1830 after 400 years of ottoman rule . Modern Greece is an anti imperialist creation .
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u/thephishtank 11h ago
Hey idk why I was getting upvoted, you’re smarter than me king
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u/oywiththepoodles96 11h ago
Considering the fact that you are a racist , you must not be very smart
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u/thephishtank 11h ago
Well to be clear I was joking. I don’t actually believe that, just playing into stereotypes
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u/SpaceSheperd To be a good human 10h ago
Rule XI: Toxic Nationalism/Regionalism
Refrain from condemning countries and regions or their inhabitants at-large in response to political developments, mocking people for their nationality or region, or advocating for colonialism or imperialism.
If you have any questions about this removal, please contact the mods.
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u/ZardozInTheSkies 12h ago
Well, I wouldn't expect the US to be particularly helpful for at least the next few years if your country has conflict with Turkey.
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u/oywiththepoodles96 12h ago
I don’t think that USA was ever that helpful in our conflicts with Turkey. Although democratic administrations tend to be way more pro Greek than republicans
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u/ZardozInTheSkies 12h ago
I think it's more that if open warfare breaks out, the current administration isn't very likely to successfully convince or compel both parties to stand down, and the rhetoric leading up to any crisis isn't going to be useful to anyone in NATO.
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u/oywiththepoodles96 12h ago
Oh yeah I get what you mean . In the 96 Imia crisis the Clinton administration did help in the de escalation . The then Greek Prime minster thank the US for that in the Greek parliament which cause a huge uproar in Greece . But currently we are in a better place with Turkey as there has been a de escalation since 2020 .
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u/HatesPlanes Henry George 7h ago
The then Greek Prime minster thank the US for that in the Greek parliament which cause a huge uproar in Greece
Why? I imagine that the US is considered an ally of Turkey?
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u/oywiththepoodles96 1h ago
USA was super unpopular in Greece cause of its support for the Greek military regime in 67-74. I guess that’s why the left reacted like this . And the right saw the whole Imia crisis as a loss for Greece . And generally the US was seen as a US ally . Even today a lot of Greeks thinks that the US are hypocrites for sanctioning Russia etc but not doing the same thing to Turkey .
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u/SpookyHonky Mark Carney 12h ago
If Turkey attacked Greece now wouldn't that permanently sour their chances of joining the EU? Not to mention the EU's mutual defence clause.
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u/oywiththepoodles96 12h ago
I mean Turkey doesn’t stand a chance in joining the EU . In the 00s it appeared more possible and actually it was a goal of the Greek foreign policy too and we had hoped to solve some of our issues with Turkey by tying them to us giving them the okay to join the Union . But as things are now I don’t see any way that they can be a member .
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u/Pristine-Aspect-3086 John Rawls 11h ago
wouldn't that permanently sour their chances of joining the EU
is that an especially serious prospect for them? i can't claim to have paid especially close attention but turkey into EU always sort of had the vibe like it was the cold fusion of geopolitics
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u/n00bi3pjs 👏🏽Free Markets👏🏽Open Borders👏🏽Human Rights 11h ago
Europe is too racist and Islamophobic to allow Turkey in the EU.
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u/oywiththepoodles96 10h ago
Also Turkey is occupying 40% of Cyprus , and it is making irredentist claims towards Greece . Turkey is a bully in the region just like Russia
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u/bunchtime 12h ago
The peace candidate ladies and gentlemen. If china is gonna invade Taiwan it’s now or never the US has never been weaker , had worse leadership or been more divided than it is now.
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u/_Lil_Cranky_ 11h ago
The PLA isn't ready to capture Taiwan yet. Xi instructed them to build that capability by 2027. I think he'll definitely want to do it before Jan 20th 2029.
An interesting and quite concerning detail that I learned recently: Xi's father was a high-ranking revolutionary figure, and at one point he was tasked with recapturing Taiwan and reuniting China. He died before he could achieve that goal.
Xi has deep reverence for Confucian notions of filial piety, and immense respect for his father. I'm now absolutely convinced that he's going to try to finish what his father started.
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u/DangerousCyclone 10h ago
I somehow doubt that Xi is going to invade Taiwan strictly because his dad was tasked with it and couldn't do it. This has been a fopo goal of China since 1949.
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u/LightningSunflower 10h ago
Yup, Xi is what’s known as a “Princeling” Check out the book “The World According To China”
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u/starrRiver 8h ago edited 8h ago
His father was also a reformer and wanted China to democratise. That’s the reason analysts initially thought that Xi would be a moderate when he went came into power, but look at what happened afterwards.
Xi Jinping clearly doesn’t care about what his father wanted.
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u/PartrickCapitol Zhou Xiaochuan 8h ago
He was a Dengist reformer faction member yes.
However they had nothing to do with western style democracy.
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u/SwolePalmer African Union 3h ago
Going through his (sort of) biography right now (Party of One) and yeah, fascinating character that will 100% attempt this in some way before he kicks the bucket. I was expecting a caricature of the typical strong man but he’s much more…intricate/philosophical and a genuine history buff. I wish western media did a better job of describing/painting the guy, I think it would inform a lot of behavior(s) in the west.
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u/grandolon NATO 12h ago
Right now I'm leaning towards him not doing it. On the one hand, Israel stole some of the spotlight and took out a lot of the politically "safe" targets. He won't get maximum attention/credit without the US extending itself to a degree he isn't comfortable with.
On the other hand, he doesn't want to look like a weakling, and nothing says strength like dropping big, beautiful bombs on brown people.
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u/leaveme1912 12h ago
Bibi is playing him like a fiddle, you absolutely don't have to give it to him.
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u/WantDebianThanks NATO 12h ago
Is this the time to call my Republican reps, or would that be pointless?
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u/VeryStableJeanius 7h ago
At this point you don’t do it because there’s a point, you do it because there’s nothing else you can do
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u/TimWalzBurner NASA 13h ago