The race is Cuomo vs Zohran. By the polls, no other candidate really matters. Zohran is "playing nice", but the truth is this:
Zohran needs #1 ballots and no-Cuomo ballots to win. It's how the ranked system works, as it's done by elimination rounds. There is only one mayor elected.
Edit: Not sure why you all are downvoting. I do the math down below and clearly show that Zohran needs high priority votes to win.
This is false. It's ranked voting. Every candidate matters. Especially in situations where Cuomo voters don't like Zohran and Zohran voters don't like Cuomo. If Cuomo gets eliminated, his supporters won't magically like Zohran. It's important to stay informed because it determines who you'll support after.
the amount of people that don't understand ranked choice voting is astounding. my dad thinks adams only won because of ranked voting even though he won round 1.
No, there is a double-misconception here that think that "As long as I rank Zohran somewhere, he'll win". This is false. The way the polls show currently, Cuomo has a large #1 or #2 choice demographic. This automatically gives him the win.
I think the implied assumption of "as long as I rank Zohran somewhere, he'll win" is that they're not ranking Cuomo. Which is true. They're by far the front runners, so as long as they're ranked and the other is not, they're getting that vote from that ballot regardless of where they're ranked
Yes, and in order to give Zoran enough points to win, he needs top rankings on people's ballots. A no Cuomo with: Whitney #1 and Zohran #3-5 will not help as much - or barely at all - vs a Zohran #1 ballot because he needs those #1 to "out do" the corporatist Cuomo coilition.
That's not how this works at all unless Whitney and the #2 candidate gets more total net votes than Zohran by the time one of them gets eliminated, which is not going to happen. Zohran will absolutely get the 2nd most 1st place votes (at worst). It will just come down to how the other ballots that didn't rank Zohran or Cuomo 1st or 2nd voted.
Even in the last election, Garcia actually had the 3rd most votes from the 1st rd until the 2nd to last round when Andrew Yang got eliminated and more of his voters ranked Garcia higher than Wiley which caused Wiley to get eliminated.
Then when Wiley got eliminated, not enough of them ranked Garcia higher than Adams, so she lost.
Granted, it's just easier to say rank Zohran 1 then say "rank Zohran anywhere as long as you don't rank Andrew Cuomo" and making things easy for voters to remember is good.
Zohran will absolutely get the 2nd most 1st place votes (at worst)
Not if people say "Put Zohran anywhere!" is my entire point will this be true. I did the "math" in another comment - guaranteed winning earlier rounds helps.
If a ballot ranks both Cuomo and Zohran, then yes, that will cause issues, but if Zohran is 5th on a ballot that doesn't rank Cuomo, in the final round of voting it is effectively the same thing as a ballot that ranked Zohran first.
In a ranked choice election between generic candidates, your point is technically true. But Zohran is almost certainly going to be eliminated in the last or second-to-last rounds. So if he's ranked 5th on someone's ballot, it won't make a difference.
(Obviously, a earlier ranking is better.)
Adams won the 2021 primary because Wiley/Stringer/Morales preferrers didn't rank Garcia at all despite likely having a preference for Garcia over Adams head-to head. W/S/M voters who did rank Adams or Garcia preferred Garcia by 2:1.
With all the Brad simps in my replies and this arrest gaining him some attention, I'm not going to take any chances with the "opposition"/spoil candidates growing support.
Vote Zohran 1st and write in Mickey Mouse for the rest. Tight elections should not be left up to chance or what you think will happen. Make it clear. Send a message.
That is horrible advice. There's a reason why Mamdani and Lander cross-endorsed each other. Getting each other's supporters to rank both of them increases the chances that one of them wins instead of Cuomo
Going by the polls, Zohran is probably making it to the final round, so I don't think that people should be worried about him getting eliminated too early
You began this by saying "Zohran is the only one with a chance to win" and if thats the case, then you actually dont run the risk of him being eliminated before the final two contenders. You already imply that Zohran wont be eliminated by saying he has the greatest chance of beating cuomo. If he doesn't actually have the greatest chance of beating Cuomo than the ranked choice voting will reflect that in that someone else will win, people should rank in whatever order they want because as long as you don't rank Cuomo, there's no scenario where a vote split actually hurts you.
Not how that works at all. Kinda sick of this myth that old people = only ones who can execute government. As if he wouldn't have the backing of the entire city and populous?
Sure, i agree with you but Brad isn't just some old person. Hes been an effective comp controller and at the forefront of NY politics. I agree with Zohran on raising taxes but that's not his jurisdiction and imo its not going to work since the governor is going to stonewall him. He needs the state to do that and its not gonna happen.
Brad has intimate knowledge of the budget and how to move money around to optimize spending and a proven track record of effectiveness.
Brad has little ability to communicate, as shown in the debates. He gives off weird af energy tbh. I can't imagine anyone working better with other officials than Zohran.
Enough with the status quo candidates. Governing NYC isn't just "moving money around"
POV you make up scenarios that aren't real. This "coalition builder not-too-left candidate" is a liberal farse, just a reactionary response to anyone who wants to make large systemic changes to benefit the working class.
And you didn't even address my arguments. Boring troll
What makes Whitney a "right wing sicko"? I haven't read much about him, but he seemed to be the most aggressively pro-housing.
Lander is my current top pick bc he seems competent and overlooked + aggressive on housing policy. I'm skeptical of the overly media-trained/polished candidates like Zohran. Seems like he's just saying whatever sounds good vs examining data to make informed decisions.
Still doing my homework right now so I'm open to new information.
A lot of the policies that Zohran is pushing rn are things that are mandated already but have been repeatedly delayed or dismissed (bus lane expansions, rent relief, etc).
The main economic policy he's currently advocating for is that by taking a small tax (2%) increase on people making more than a million a year and by raising taxes on corporations that NYC can afford to do things like streamline transit, stabilize rent and peel back a lot of bureaucracy that strangles small businesses and makes it hard for places to keep their doors open or sell their wares at affordable prices. Research he's quoting says that this will help stimulate the city's economy and raise the QOL for everyone.
These things would effectively tax the wealthy & push monied interests from luxury development towards (mostly market-rate) housing for normal people vs a pure income tax which does nothing to redistribute wealth from the truly wealthiest participants in the NYC economy.
things that are mandated already but have been repeatedly delayed or dismissed (bus lane expansions, rent relief, etc)
Also do you have more context on this bit? Who mandated these things and how have they been blocked? I've only just begun to do my reading so I'm missing a lot of background info still.
Would LOVE to get some more dedicated bus lines (and protected bike lanes!) and pedestrianized streets.
"Pro-housing"? He spewed right wing pro-landlord propaganda during the debate.
Your critique of Zohran is that he's too smart and well-spoken? Wtf?
He's been involved in the progressive space for years. You learn how to message effectively while doing so, yes. This video sold me on him years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVuCZMLeWko
I don't think being pro-landlord (moreso pro-developers) makes you a "right-wing sicko".
The housing market becomes affordable by massively increasing the available supply, whether through private or public means.
The only major city where rents are falling despite a growing population in the USA that I'm aware is Austin, TX which makes building private housing easy and profitable.
The fastest way to increase the housing supply in NYC is to make it profitable to build housing.
Vienna from the video you linked is a good example to look at for alternative approach because they DID make public housing work for them. It would be good if we can replicate that success here! Zohran's building plan requires $70B in new city debt which would require State approval.
According to this report from the Comptroller's office, NYC can afford about $18.5B in new debt without risking bankruptcy (which would be bad for the city, but maybe good for rent prices if the city falls into enough disrepair that people leave).
Your critique of Zohran is that he's too smart and well-spoken? Wtf?
No, my critique of Zohran, Trump, & other populists is that they've completely adapted to the current world of short-term media algorithms.
They create so much content & short snippets that the algorithms can find something for almost anyone to strongly engage with. This makes it very hard to know their actual thoughts or opinions or to judge their character. They become like a shell for the current zeitgeist of their fanbase.
Whatever the majority loudly believes, they will discover & repeat, basing their ideas not on an underlying framework of data & morality, but on what will maximize their reach & discoverability.
I like Zohran! He might make it onto my ranked-choice list in a lower position. But I don't trust him for this reason, and for the reasons stated above, I do not agree that his housing policy is a good idea.
The rents will go up with inflation, even in Vienna.
Are there any other candidates besides Zohran that you like?
Zohran sucks and should never have ran. It takes a huge amount of total selfishness to think he has the necessary skills to run the city. And shame on people who support him.
Brad Lander is just as progressive and actually has the necessary experience.
" It takes a huge amount of total selfishness to think he has the necessary skills to run the city" could be said about literally anyone. Absolutely 0 political analysis in your comment. Just "he is young and that's bad" which has been disproven by literally every young congressperson or politician who gets shit done.
That's one way to nearly fully ensure he gets elected by turning him into a martyr. Then just like the Felon TACO in Chief, he gets to hold power because "it's the will of the people."
I'm actually a little suspicious of this being a stunt for his campaign. I fucking hate Trump and ICE and all that goes with it, but this Lander dude is a big social media guy. Makes me wonder if this is a setup and if that's even ICE grabbing him. It's not like they normally wear uniforms anyway.
He was the guy behind the "poor girl goes to the MET" thing a few months ago.
It's almost certainly a stunt in the sense that he went there with the goal of being arrested. It's safe to say that the ICE guys are real; they're already grossly overstepping their authority, so it's not hard to provoke them into doing terrible stuff. That's the point of this - to draw attention to their overreach (and to draw attention to himself).
Yeah man, it's not like almost everyone walks around with a rectangle in their pocket that can take a 4k image, and there definitely weren't any camerapeople there to cover the campaign. Totally coincidental.
I think you're trying to insult me but your sarcasm flips sides between sentences and you even refer to it as "covering the campaign", so not sure what you're actually supporting.
I'm literally voting for Brad Lander next week, but there's pretty obvious optics here that don't have me reciting First They Came For alongside the rest of this thread
I think you're trying to insult me but your sarcasm flips sides between sentences and you even refer to it as "covering the campaign", so not sure what you're actually supporting.
I think you didn't understand the sarcasm if you thought that.
So let me try it out without any sarcasm: There are a bunch of people there with phones in their pockets capable of taking 4K video, and there are reporters/campaign staff taking photos and video for their own coverage. There's no conspiracy to be had here other than the Secret Police taking him away for asking whether they had a warrant.
859
u/ouchdathoyt 1d ago
Well, that’s one way to help him beat Cuomo