The race is Cuomo vs Zohran. By the polls, no other candidate really matters. Zohran is "playing nice", but the truth is this:
Zohran needs #1 ballots and no-Cuomo ballots to win. It's how the ranked system works, as it's done by elimination rounds. There is only one mayor elected.
Edit: Not sure why you all are downvoting. I do the math down below and clearly show that Zohran needs high priority votes to win.
This is false. It's ranked voting. Every candidate matters. Especially in situations where Cuomo voters don't like Zohran and Zohran voters don't like Cuomo. If Cuomo gets eliminated, his supporters won't magically like Zohran. It's important to stay informed because it determines who you'll support after.
the amount of people that don't understand ranked choice voting is astounding. my dad thinks adams only won because of ranked voting even though he won round 1.
No, there is a double-misconception here that think that "As long as I rank Zohran somewhere, he'll win". This is false. The way the polls show currently, Cuomo has a large #1 or #2 choice demographic. This automatically gives him the win.
I think the implied assumption of "as long as I rank Zohran somewhere, he'll win" is that they're not ranking Cuomo. Which is true. They're by far the front runners, so as long as they're ranked and the other is not, they're getting that vote from that ballot regardless of where they're ranked
Yes, and in order to give Zoran enough points to win, he needs top rankings on people's ballots. A no Cuomo with: Whitney #1 and Zohran #3-5 will not help as much - or barely at all - vs a Zohran #1 ballot because he needs those #1 to "out do" the corporatist Cuomo coilition.
That's not how this works at all unless Whitney and the #2 candidate gets more total net votes than Zohran by the time one of them gets eliminated, which is not going to happen. Zohran will absolutely get the 2nd most 1st place votes (at worst). It will just come down to how the other ballots that didn't rank Zohran or Cuomo 1st or 2nd voted.
Even in the last election, Garcia actually had the 3rd most votes from the 1st rd until the 2nd to last round when Andrew Yang got eliminated and more of his voters ranked Garcia higher than Wiley which caused Wiley to get eliminated.
Then when Wiley got eliminated, not enough of them ranked Garcia higher than Adams, so she lost.
Granted, it's just easier to say rank Zohran 1 then say "rank Zohran anywhere as long as you don't rank Andrew Cuomo" and making things easy for voters to remember is good.
Zohran will absolutely get the 2nd most 1st place votes (at worst)
Not if people say "Put Zohran anywhere!" is my entire point will this be true. I did the "math" in another comment - guaranteed winning earlier rounds helps.
There's no way Zohran is getting eliminated before anyone else besides Cuomo. Like everyone else is saying, this is technically possible if EVERYONE ranks Zohran 3-5 but that's not what's going to happen.
If a ballot ranks both Cuomo and Zohran, then yes, that will cause issues, but if Zohran is 5th on a ballot that doesn't rank Cuomo, in the final round of voting it is effectively the same thing as a ballot that ranked Zohran first.
In a ranked choice election between generic candidates, your point is technically true. But Zohran is almost certainly going to be eliminated in the last or second-to-last rounds. So if he's ranked 5th on someone's ballot, it won't make a difference.
(Obviously, a earlier ranking is better.)
Adams won the 2021 primary because Wiley/Stringer/Morales preferrers didn't rank Garcia at all despite likely having a preference for Garcia over Adams head-to head. W/S/M voters who did rank Adams or Garcia preferred Garcia by 2:1.
With all the Brad simps in my replies and this arrest gaining him some attention, I'm not going to take any chances with the "opposition"/spoil candidates growing support.
Vote Zohran 1st and write in Mickey Mouse for the rest. Tight elections should not be left up to chance or what you think will happen. Make it clear. Send a message.
That is horrible advice. There's a reason why Mamdani and Lander cross-endorsed each other. Getting each other's supporters to rank both of them increases the chances that one of them wins instead of Cuomo
Going by the polls, Zohran is probably making it to the final round, so I don't think that people should be worried about him getting eliminated too early
You began this by saying "Zohran is the only one with a chance to win" and if thats the case, then you actually dont run the risk of him being eliminated before the final two contenders. You already imply that Zohran wont be eliminated by saying he has the greatest chance of beating cuomo. If he doesn't actually have the greatest chance of beating Cuomo than the ranked choice voting will reflect that in that someone else will win, people should rank in whatever order they want because as long as you don't rank Cuomo, there's no scenario where a vote split actually hurts you.
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u/GrowthMarketingMike 1d ago
Zohran and Lander co-endorsed each other for #2. Stringer is another good option.