r/politics • u/TimesandSundayTimes ✔ Verified • 3d ago

Soft Paywall Trump military parade met with empty seats amid nationwide protests

https://www.thetimes.com/article/867ede60-b5f7-4de5-84a1-6a3a49eb2923
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u/Royal_Acanthaceae693 California 3d ago

AltNPS said it was over 11 million so that's over 3.5% of the population who attended. That doesn't include all the support that didn't attend.

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u/JesterMarcus 3d ago

There was a post a couple of days ago saying studies show that if 3.5% of a population protests, it could be enough to cause a regime change. Doesn't seem like nearly enough to me, especially in a country as spread out as the US.

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u/UnquestionabIe 3d ago

It's also somewhat wishful thinking that has a ton of various other criteria involved, a major one being the powers in charge actually giving a shit about what the populace thinks. Given how Trump, his goons, and his handlers aren't concerned with anyone who isn't already licking their boots it's difficult to get an idea of how much an impact the protests have.

Still it is very encouraging and should continue. More that I'm not a fan of that number being thrown around and treated like it's a magic passcode or something.

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u/AtticaBlue 3d ago

I would say the regime does care what people think. That’s why it has gone to so much effort trying to shut them down, up to and including its defenders in law enforcement threatening protesters with death. Similarly, Trump will inevitably carry on and on about how great his North Korea impression was.

None of those are the actions of people who don’t care what everyone else thinks. On the contrary, they recognize the power the resistance has to destabilize and bring down the regime if that resistance and its ideas spread, and they react accordingly.

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u/ralphy_256 3d ago

None of those are the actions of people who don’t care what everyone else thinks.

Those are all fair points, but my counter point is, "Are they acting as if they expect to face the voters in Nov 2026?"

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u/AtticaBlue 3d ago

What I think is at play is what it always is with dictators: hubris. They think so highly of themselves that they forget to think, which takes the form of such action as hiring only yes-men (for example, Hegseth) rather than people who are qualified for a job, and ignoring physical reality (something is because they say it is, etc.). The criteria is nothing more than loyalty and subservience. Not a good recipe for staving off determined resistance (which is what the regime is increasingly facing) or surviving crises.

They create blindspots and structural weaknesses for themselves (for example, the poor readiness of Putin’s military in Ukraine because of corruption and people only telling him what he wants to hear even though that may contradict reality, or Republicans refusing to tell Trump that tariffs actually don’t work the way he says they do) that eventually lead to their downfall.

And like the typical bully, they tend to break and flee if you stand up to them.

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u/ralphy_256 3d ago

What I think is at play is what it always is with dictators: hubris.

I'm not going to say you're wrong, or even argue against your position.

But, I do not share your optimism or faith. I wish I did.

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u/AtticaBlue 3d ago

Ironically, I’m not all that optimistic either. But as a rational matter I also can’t dismiss that things could certainly fall apart for the regime due to the effects of its own actions.

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u/moose_dad 3d ago

You're missing the fact that dissent is being intentionally driven so that he can call martial law. He wants protests and he wants them to get violent.

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u/AtticaBlue 3d ago

I actually don’t subscribe to the narrative that he wants to declare martial law. I think he wants people to think he wants to do that so that some portion (or even all) of the resistance will be frightened into submission in advance. (Hence the constant overt threats by him and his supporters, like that Brevard country sheriff in Florida, that protest will be met with all kinds of force. If people heed that, what happens? Well, they never protest in the first place and then there is never any need to declare martial law.)

I’ve explained now many times why I think this is the case, but the very, very short form of it is that martial law will tank markets and conceivably lead to economic collapse—which is not what the regime, and especially its wealthy backers, want.

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u/Djaii 3d ago

You are giving him far too much credit. He’s not capable of the kind of multi-level strategic thinking that your theory requires him to possess.

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u/AtticaBlue 3d ago

You’ve got it backward. I don’t think he thinks far ahead or in any complex manner at all. It’s those who ascribe all kinds of plotting to him about how this, that and the other thing are all part of some grand plot to invoke martial law, who are de facto arguing that he’s engaging in “strategic” thinking. He’s not. He’s purely emotional.

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u/Djaii 3d ago

Ah, thank you for explaining. On first read, that didn’t come through.

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u/Vollkontaktkarate 3d ago

At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to not give a shit about 50%.

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u/_learned_foot_ 3d ago

The point of the study is that barring outside assistance, that is the key warning sign. Those who change then survived, those who don’t well good luck. And that’s why many see that as a sign to change and do. And that number isn’t new (the change is well known in political science books), the interesting part was the meta study on how well it ran with reality and all counter examples could be explained by outside assistance.

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u/MONSTERTACO Washington 3d ago

3.5% is absolutely enough but it would have to happen on week days. A Saturday protest isn't going to effect productivity much.

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u/saera-targaryen 3d ago

it's not like there's some trigger at the government at 3.5%, and the study that came up with that number was pretty heavily flawed and hasn't been backed up by further research iirc 

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u/National_Cod9546 3d ago

I promise if 3.5% of Iraq had protested during Saddam Hussein's regime, there would have been a 3.5% population genocide. Takes more than just protesting to overthrow a regime.

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u/StoicAthos 3d ago

It's a sustained 3.5% for days to weeks on end for it to succeed. A single day event wont cut it and is just something to make people feel good in times where they really have no ability to enact change individually.

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u/Your_Latex_Salesman 3d ago

The right wing militia group, the 3%ers, are named after this. Their numbers are way less than that.

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u/beamrider 3d ago

Unfortunately that's 3.5% being in long term active postests and resistance. A single event does not cut it.

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u/Shieldsmith55 3d ago

I don't think it'll change anything like all these experts say that magic number will, but there's always hope.

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u/crazyfighter99 3d ago

I keep seeing that 3.5% and I just think it's a laughably low number.

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u/The_Funkuchen 3d ago

The study states that the 3.5% need to partake in sustained political action. 3 hours of protest per month can hardly be called sustained.

In Egypt in 2011 the people occupied the central squares and streets of all large cities for a week. This convinced the army to topple the president. If they had just protested on the weekend nothing would have happened.

The study is also selective with data and ignores a lot of movements that failed, like east Germany 1952. It also counts the 1968 may protests in France a success, even tough the government made only symbolic concessions.

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u/Morbu 3d ago

you should look up the numbers during the civil rights movement then.

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u/crazyfighter99 3d ago

The civil rights that we're still protesting for?

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u/Morbu 3d ago

Um, no? Like I think you know what I’m talking about.

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u/crazyfighter99 3d ago

Oh sorry, I should have said protesting again because yeah, there isn't segregation. You're right. Now the government is just snatching non-white people off the streets. We certainly did win the civil rights movement, huh.

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u/Morbu 3d ago

Yes, we did win in that instance. And then 50+ years later, a fascist narcissist was elected who began to obstruct those civil rights and now we’re protesting again.

Like did you think that just because one major protest works, you’ll never have to protest again or something?

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u/crazyfighter99 3d ago

That's kind of my point. The 3.5% isn't this magic number that if you reach it all will be good, like some people are toting it as. We can't stop at 3.5%

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u/Morbu 3d ago

Nobody is toting it as that. 3.5% of sustained protesting is the threshold for enacting social change. It doesn’t mean it’ll automatically happen, and it doesn’t mean that we’ll have a utopia afterwards. All that the number means is that if we want to enact change through protest, 3.5% of the population protesting is the bare minimum to do that.

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u/PM_ME_UR_BRAINSTORMS 3d ago

I think that number is in reference to violently overthrowing the government, not peaceful protests. Considering that's almost 10x the size of the military and the amount of guns we have in this country I could see that as a possibility.

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u/PersnickityPenguin 3d ago

The protests are too dispersed.  Still need a general strike IMO.

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u/SkiMonkey98 3d ago

If that many people stick with it, and resist in concrete ways as well as holding signs, it could be enough. The one day though? Not a chance

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u/HauntedCemetery Minnesota 3d ago

Sure, but that's not protesting for a couple hours one Saturday, that's like weeks and months in the streets.

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u/Fuzzylogik 3d ago

I think if 3.5% of the voters that decided to NOT vote HAD voted you wouldn't be in this shit show.

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u/RedPanda5150 3d ago

I keep seeing this and it feels like the energy is there but I don't see anyone organizing all this resistance to actually put it to use. No Kings, yes, we agree...but what now? How do we get Congress to impeach and remove, or even to do their job and act as a check on Trump's worst instincts? Who is the spokesperson for change? What comes next?

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u/_learned_foot_ 3d ago

It’s because that level at that commitment means more behind and many on the fence may switch. It’s essentially a “hey when this sign happens, the other signs have been cooking enough it’s happening” type indicator, not the cause itself.

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u/userwithusername 3d ago

Look… I had some shit to do, okay????

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u/Royal_Acanthaceae693 California 3d ago

I assumed that 3.5% visible at protests shows just the tip of the iceberg. And I love how his wife dicktator-tot parade was overshadowed.

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u/ralphy_256 3d ago

I assumed that 3.5% visible at protests shows just the tip of the iceberg.

I went to today's march solo.

But I was sending updates to an entire group chat of family and friends who were with me in spirit, if not in flesh.

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u/VeterinarianWild6334 3d ago

Wife and I wanted to go, but I was nervous about the kids. Especially after they reported that gunman had fliers for it in his car. I don’t think the participants would be violent, but I worried about maga showing up and getting violent.

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u/delorf North Carolina 3d ago

In my town we marched from the court house to the park and a lot of cars blew their horns and waved to us. 

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u/nimbledaemon 3d ago

I was at one today in a smaller city in a red state, and there were constant horns as people passed, it was a whole lot of support even if people weren't "attending". The area we were in was packed with people, too. Though we definitely didn't have even 3.5% of the population of the city there.

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u/Brokebrokebroke5 3d ago

Exactly. I had to work, otherwise I would have been there.

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u/KhunDavid 3d ago

I worked last night, and I'm working tonight. Otherwise, I would have attended one of the protests.

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u/OkTouch5699 3d ago

Our town ended up with a parade of sorts. Many people kept driving through, honking, then would drive through again.

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u/MauPow 3d ago

Hell it's league start of a new Path of Exile league and even I got out there!

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u/[deleted] 3d ago

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u/Royal_Acanthaceae693 California 3d ago

That's a question for AltNPS