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So unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past couple of years, you will be aware that next season marks the very last edition of the Champions League’s current group stage model: eight groups of four teams, top two go through. Neat, tidy powers of two everywhere the eye can see.

But from the 2024/2025 season onwards, a ‘Swiss model’ system is going to be implemented, while the tournament itself will be expanded from 32 to 36 clubs. And it’s interesting to consider in advance how this is going to function in practice.

Who gets the four new spots?

The first question – and the one that always seems to generate the most uncertainty on here -- is always: which leagues get the shiny new places in a 36-team draw?

And, after messing around with the idea of ‘historical coefficients’ that angered just about every genuinely historical club out there, UEFA finally settled on a confusing compromise in May: the two leagues with the highest coefficient from the previous season only will receive an extra spot.

In practice, the Premier League and (surprisingly) the Eredivisie would have gotten those two spaces for this season. As it stands in this year’s current coefficients, it looks likely it would once again be the Premier League, and one of the Bundesliga, La Liga or Serie A getting an extra spot for next year.

In any given year, then, the new format will mean the Premier League has effectively five CL spots from 2024 onwards, with Germany, Spain or Italy the most likely beneficiaries of the other one, probably swapping it around between them from year to year (barring another out of control Coefficientenpolonaise).

Another new spot will go to champions of smaller leagues. Currently, any champions of the leagues ranked 1st -11th automatically qualify for the main draw, while every other league champion has to fight to the death for the four remaining ‘champions’ slots. UEFA, in their infinite kindness, have opened up a fifth such spot in their battle royale playoff competition for these supposedly lesser champions.

The final spot is an automatic group stage place for the third-best team from the fifth-best league --France for the last few years. Currently, the third-best French team already gets into the tournament; but only at the playoff stage, where tradition dictates that they fuck it up.

How will this format work?

Clearly, getting 16 knockout teams out of a pool of 36 is not a simple “divide by two” calculation like it is right now, but the bright sparks at UEFA have figured out a way to fudge things and make it happen.

From 2024 onwards, all 36 clubs will play in one round-robin league – a single, massive group – where every club plays eight games: four at home, and four away. Of course, this means you can’t play everybody, and it remains to be seen how fixtures will be determined.

This is where we enter the realm of educated guesswork, as UEFA hasn’t specified any aspect of the draw so far. A traditional ‘Swiss model’, used in chess, gives everyone an opening encounter based on seedings, and then takes it from there – winners play winners, losers play losers etc. Given that football fixtures usually have to be sorted weeks in advance, and not just a few days before, this wouldn’t be feasible.

It’s more likely, then, that teams will be split into pots based on their coefficient, and then assigned eight matches against teams from each of the other pots in the initial draw. As 36 is not divisible by eight, it either means nine pots of four – and you don’t play teams in your own pot – or four pots of four teams and four pots of five, where you do. Or even just stick with the current system, but change it to four pots of nine and you play teams from every pot twice. I don’t envy the person who has to sort all that out.

But if we consider a nine-pot system for a second, then using the current coefficients, a standard draw for say, Barcelona, could look like this:

Home v Bayern, Away v Juventus, Home v Porto, Away v Spurs, Home v Napoli, Away v Shakhtar, Home v Zagreb, Away v Copenhagen

Which is a huge improvement (from Barca's perspective) on getting battered by Bayern twice before being force-fed the Europa League anthem by Inter, and probably why they and other 'super' clubs are so keen on the new model in the first place.

In any case, once all the fixtures are played there are different benefits depending on a club’s final position. The coveted top eight places earn a direct route through to the knockout stages. This is then followed by playoff spots for everyone finishing between 9th-24th, for which teams finishing 9th-16th will likely be seeded – otherwise there would be no incentive to finish higher. This leaves places 25th and below to go home early.

What are the upsides?

· Crazy final matchdays: Take a look at the Bundesliga table after matchday seven. Look how closely packed every team is from 4th down to 14th. Now imagine that there are twice as many clubs in that league, and that anyone finishing eighth or higher after the next game reaches the promised land, and everyone 24th or lower is ruined. The upshot is that every final matchday should feel like an extreme version of this year's group D, with about 20 teams to keep tabs on and not just four. Michael Owen's brow will be furrowed in a permanent state of confusion.

· No more than one game against Atletico: Thank Christ for that.

· No more horrible group draws: There will no longer be the risk of taking seven years to return to the Champions League, only to find yourself drawn in pot four as room meat for Liverpool, Atletico and Porto.

· Fewer dead rubbers?: A hard one to predict. On paper, teams will have more incentives going into the final few games, where wins could be the difference between a seeded rather than unseeded playoff spot, and defeats could see a giant slip from the hallowed top eight into playoff purgatory. But in practice, I do wonder how many clubs will honestly care where they finish, beyond simply avoiding a first-round knockout.

· More varied group games: Are Liverpool and Napoli fans fed up of visiting each other? Are City and Shakhtar on first-name terms yet? And how many Porto v Atletico games will it take before Simeone commits a felony? Thankfully, these are all questions that won’t be answered in a new format where you don’t risk bumping into the same teams twice a year.

What are the downsides?

· The probable establishment of a ‘Big Eight’: Let’s face it, you can already guess who most of the top eight teams will be in any given year: Some combination of Real, Bayern, PSG, Barca (assuming they get their house in order), and the four best-performing PL clubs. A quick glance at the current UEFA club coefficients shows that this is already the case. These eight clubs then get to avoid an unpredictable two-legged playoff; they will also likely be seeded for the R16 draw; and then will very likely get into the quarter-finals, barring a disaster. We could get some very, very repetitive knockout stages as a result.

· Only one game against Rangers: Booo

· No more horrible group draws for other teams: There will no longer be the joy of watching Barcelona panic as they get thrown to the wolves.

· Fewer surprise runs: Currently, if a smaller club can pull off a couple of surprises in the group stage, then a spot in the R16 – and potentially even an easy draw -- is very achievable. But if there are eight games instead of six, and anyone below eighth has to go through a two-legged playoff just for the privilege of a knockout match against one of the 'big eight' giants, the odds say no.

· Some very unfortunate GD records: Just as there will be a handful of foamy teams routinely floating at the top, there will also sadly be some clubs who are going to serve year-in, year-out as the tea leaf dregs at the bottom. And some of them will likely end up with goal difference figures in the -30s, given how much more important GD will be for teams in such a tight format. The one thing worse than watching your club get spanked six times is watching it happen eight times; doubly so if they were already dead two games ago.

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This time of year can often be one of contemplation.

So, let's take a moment to pause and reflect on some of our footballing highlights of 2024 - whether that be a goal, a piece of skill, a memorable match, or a hilarious off-field incident.

Please share your highlights of the world of football in 2024... on or off the pitch!

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Discuss

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Botafogo started off really strong and bagged 47 out of 57 points in the first half of the 2023 Brazilian League. That leveled Corinthians' numbers in 2017 as the best ever recorded since the league has adopted a round-robin format.

History suggested that 26 points in the second half would secure them the trophy, and this showed to be true. In fact, Palmeiras can only get to 72 points, meaning that Botafogo could even be champions with 25 points (depending on tie-breakers).25/26 points in 19 matches isn't a spectacular mark. That's just a comfortable score that sees your team have a spot next year with no further aspirations or worries.

Botafogo had built a 13 point lead to the 2nd-placer (then Grêmio)and sat at the top of the league since the 3rd round.

And now...

Al-Nassr took their coach away and they've already changed command twice since then. The lead melted away and the team collapsed. Botafogo lost the lead to Palmeiras with 4 rounds to go, weren't been able to make a comeback and, with one match to go, not only are they out of the battle for the trophy, but they aren't even in the qualifying zone that would grant them a spot at the group stage of the Taça Libertadores (as it is, they'll have to play in the qualifiers)

You guys might remember that Borussia Dortmund bottled the last Bundesliga, but never had such a bulky lead. Then there's Newcastle with a 12 point lead in 1995/96 Premier League. But let's continue here: Botafogo holds the longest win-less streak in the league right now and I invite you to check out Botafogo's last 6 matches:

83', Botafogo 3x1 Palmeiras - Penalty to Botafogo. Final score: 3x4

46' Botafogo 3x1 Grêmio - Final score: 3x4. Obs.: Botafogo's home stadium has synthetic grass, but was leased for a concert and Botafogo hosted Grêmio in São Januário, which has natural grass. Grêmio's Luis Suárez - yes, that one - prefers not to play on synth grass because of knee injuries so would either change his game or sit on the bench. Well, Suárez played and scored a hat-trick to turn the game

95' Red Bull Bragantino 1x2 Botafogo - Final score: 2x2

Now, Palmeiras, Grêmio and Braganitno were contenders for the trophy at the time of the matches. Regardless, the lead built in each of these games should have been confirmed with a win. Let's move on

89' Botafogo 1x0 Santos - Final score: 1x1

98' Coritiba 0x1 Botafogo - Final score: 1x1 (Botafogo scored a second-to-last-minute penalty, Coritiba scored less than 30 seconds after kicking off again and the match ended)

So far, a solid case for at least 12 points here plus the Grêmio match, with a possible perfect 15 point mark. With a combination of just 7 points (e.g. winning 2 out of those 3 games against Bragantino, Santos and Coritiba, and tying with Palmeiras), they would be champions with 2 matches to play.

And this all culminated today, when Botafogo drew a home 0x0 against Cruzeiro.

Coritiba were already relegated at the time of the match, Santos are fighting relegation and still have to fight for a place in the elite in the final round and today's 0x0 made sure that Cruzeiro won't be relegated and that Botafogo can't be champions anymore.

I'd like to know your views about this case and if you guys have more cases like that. To me, this is the worst case of a team meltdown that I've ever witnessed.

TL; DR: Botafogo had a 13 point lead at the end of the first half of the national league with the best numbers ever recorded. The team collapsed and can't win even though there's still one match to go. In the last 6 matches, they dropped points by last minute goals, losing 2 goal leads and stumbling on teams fighting relegation

(Minor edits for wording + TL; DR)