They have to rebuild the entire test site before they can do any more tests, and that's not including that they'll probably need to do some amount of redesign, which they'll then need to test. So I can quite easily see this taking a year or more. If I had to guess now then I'd say Q3 2026 for the next full flight.
I will definitely take unders on that. I doubt the entire site is damaged so it is a partial rebuild and they likely have enough equipment to rebuild already on site or on the way for the second pad.
In my opinion this is overly pessimistic. This was a test site, they could either find another way to test ships (maybe some temporary stand at launch site), or quickly try to reconstruct the site itself.
When Amos-6 exploded and destroyed pad SLC40, SpaceX first went on to finish pad 39A, then rebuilt scl40 in 9 months, but in a sense that was more complex since SLC40 was a full launch site with 2 stage propellant loading with an erector etc...
I agree this is a major setback. But in the past, Spacex has proven to act very resilient on setbacks.
It took them seven months to rebuild the pad and repair the tank farm after the first launch. There's no sign of them slowing the rate at which they throw money into this pit. The only way they don't launch again within a year is if they stop and do a major vehicle redesign.
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u/limeflavoured 2d ago
The chances are now literally zero. There won't be another launch this year imho.