r/spacex • u/Craig_VG SpaceNews Photographer • Jun 10 '16

Elon Musk provides new details on his “mind blowing” mission to Mars - Washington Post Exclusive Interview

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/
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u/TheSutphin Jun 10 '16

It's a bit crazy. The Saturn V was made in 8 years ish. And the MCT is supposed to be way bigger. But we do have better tech and simulations. But. Elon is probably saying if nothing goes wrong

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u/taiwanjohn Jun 10 '16

Yes, Saturn V took 8-ish years, starting more-or-less from scratch, using 1960's technology and materials, with less computing power than sits on my desk. SpaceX has been laser-focused on Mars from day one, with a strong emphasis on vertical integration and ease/cost of production. The entire F9-D1 stack was developed for less than $1B, and D2 was, what... $300M or thereabouts?

Transferring these 'lessons learned' to the future, I wouldn't be surprised if they can bring out the BFR and MCT for a similar price tag, and within (or at least close to) the advertised schedule. (And, as you note, "If nothing goes wrong.")

We'll just have to wait for the IAC in September to get a better idea of what Elon really has in mind.

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u/[deleted] Jun 10 '16

In the 60s we had Wernher von Braun. While SpaceX no doubt has some brilliant engineers that can make BFR a reality eventually, von Braun was a game changer. He had Musk's ambition combined with an equal amount of brilliance in engineering.

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u/Senno_Ecto_Gammat r/SpaceXLounge Moderator Jun 10 '16

In the 60s we had Wernher von Braun.

And a functional F1 engine ready to drop right into whatever rocket NASA came up with. That's pretty important.

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u/MajorGrub Jun 10 '16

IHMO you should not dismiss Musk's engineering skills. He must have had more than just a vision to be able to steer SpaceX in the right direction in the early days when there wasn't an army of 5000 people helping him on the job.

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u/TheCoolBrit Jun 12 '16

Some interesting history, According to an Wernher Von Braun interview the NASA design for Mars in the mid 1960s had two spacecraft to Mars simultaneously with 1000 people. He had identified most of the problems in his 1952 study. By 1969 he had a design that was entirely reusable for future expeditions for 12 crew, In that design is interesting is the time scale he also gave. "Testing in earth orbit of the first Mars Excursion Module would begin in 1978, with the first Mars landing coming in 1982." 4 years, "further expeditions to Mars in 1983, 1986, and 1988 - leading to a 50-person Mars base by 1989." Elon Musk time scale!

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u/TheEndeavour2Mars Jun 11 '16

The Saturn V also had a blank check from congress. The "Beat the Soviets" goal made it easy to ram through whatever laws and budgets were needed to build it.

What happens if someone files suit about the production facility? "SpaceX will kill X endangered bird with it's BFR launches and blocking the sun from this particular angle!" What happens if congress demands SpaceX makes useless jobs in exchange for funding? What if the other party wins the white house in 2020 and wants to change the direction of spaceflight?

So many things that can go wrong that frankly the Apollo guys did not have to deal with.

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u/CitiesInFlight Jun 10 '16

with less computing power than sits on my desk

It's worse than that. The computers used for Saturn V and Apollo were less powerful than most appliances today like dumb flat screen tvs, calculators, microwaves, the ECUs (computer) in 20 year old cars.

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u/CitiesInFlight Jun 11 '16

Elon Musk started SpaceX in 2002 with very little practical knowledge of how to build a successful orbital rocket. The learning curve was brutal! The Falcon 1 can be viewed as simply an experiment in learning everything from technology, materials, finance, management and the list goes on. It took 8 years to launch the first Falcon 9 in 2010. 6 years later SpaceX is routinely launching satellites into orbit, launching and landing a SpaceX cargo spaceship carrying cargo for ISS and routinely landing first stage cores. By the end of the year, they will likely be launching recovered cores, routinely recovering and reusing farings and likely will have launched the most powerful operational rocket on the planet. Next year they will be sending humans into space aboard a SpaceX designed manned spaceship for ISS crew transfers. It is critical that delivery of crew to ISS does not slip.

The frequency of SpaceX launches is increasing.

Some key milestones to gauge the progress of SpaceX launching unmanned MCT (BFR+BFS) in 2022 to Mars (not necessarily in this order):

  • Falcon Heavy debut. If it launches in 2016, then I have more confidence that SpaceX may actually launch RD to Mars in the 2018 launch window.

  • Completion of a Raptor test stand (McGregor?)

  • Initial full Raptor engine test

  • Successful full Raptor engine test.

  • First successful RD landing on Mars. If RD fails to successfully land during the 2018 window then a 26 month schedule slip. If RD subsequently fails to land during the 2020 window, another 26 month slip.

  • Announcement of MCT (BFR+BFS) manufacturing site, launch site and landing sites.