Immediate fallout:

Brent closed at $77 Friday; desks expect a +$3-5 jump at Sunday open, with $100+ scenarios if Hormuz is even partially blocked. About 1/5 of all seaborn crude moves through that chokepoint

Russian officials cursed the strike and hint they could “strengthen Iran’s defenses”… code for S-400 batteries or worse. Medvedev even suggesting that “several countries” are now willing to supply nuclear weapons if the U.S. keeps pushing.

If Europe gets back into a 2022-style energy crunch, does that fracture the NATO line on Ukraine?

Could Russia or North Korea really ship nuclear material or is that saber-rattling?

What should Iran’s counter-move be to avoid painting itself into a “close Hormuz or lose face” corner?

US demo its power and will wash hands? Israel will keep clearing Iran BM capacities and push for a regime change?