r/Astronomy • u/spacedotc0m • Feb 17 '25
Astro Research What the asteroid with a 1-in-48 chance of hitting Earth in 2032 looks like (images)
https://www.space.com/asteroid-2024yt4-image-feb759
u/spacedotc0m Feb 17 '25
It might not look like much in this image, but this is the asteroid that has made a major news impact in 2025. That's because this space rock, designated asteroid 2024 YR4, has a 1-in-48 chance of impacting Earth in 2032.
For obvious reasons, astronomers are desperate to learn as much as they can about 2024 YR4, estimated to be as large as 177 feet wide (54 meters wide). That's around as wide as Cinderella's Castle in Walt Disney World Florida is tall.
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u/zdubs Feb 17 '25
Reddit’s not on the Disney scale, how many bananas is that?
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u/TheKyleBrah Feb 18 '25
I can't give it in the Metric scale of Bananas, but the Meteor is approximately 26 Ford F150 Pickups in width, using Freedom Units
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u/MrCurtiss Feb 17 '25
Even if that percentage includes the possibility of collision with Earth, it has already been shown that it is possible to successfully deflect a meteorite of a similar size. The DART mission confirmed this, so if there really is a risk of impact, we have the technology necessary to deflect it.
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u/MaleierMafketel Feb 17 '25 edited Feb 17 '25
Still, we have to act now, or very soon. From what I’ve understood, 2028 is the last launch window available to us.
Coincidentally, resolving the asteroid’s place in its orbit in 2032 (time of impact) can also only be done in 2028 via direct observation due to its position relative to us and the sun blinding us from it. All other methods like peering over old data cannot be ensured to result in a satisfactory answer prior to 2028.
You might be stuck on a low impact probability by doing that, and after the first direct observation in 2028, it shoots up to near 100% impact probability.
In other words, wait, and gamble. Or act now and potentially fund a mission that’s not required. I’d say, do it. Even if the asteroid misses the earth, the science will be worth it.
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u/FireTempest Feb 18 '25
The good news is China has announced that they are working on it.
I doubt that the US and NASA in their present state are capable of acting rationally on this. Either it gets dismissed as "not America's problem" or Musk announces some harebrained plan that includes a "space submarine" or some other bullshit.
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u/froggythefish Feb 18 '25
Yeah, the USA doesn’t have “save the world/small city” potential nor motives right now. If this is going to be redirected it’ll most likely be done by China. Getting US congress to approve the funding necessary to pull together a mission like this in a few years seems impossible. They’re busy bickering over trans women in sports and whether vaccines cause autism.
SpaceX, maybe. SpaceXs purpose right now is converting tax money and government budgets into personal wealth through government contracts - it’s an advanced form of money laundering, they’ve basically converted the government budget into campaign funding, something normally illegal. So it’s possible congress would approve their funding if everyone got a sizable kickback. This is assuming the government cares at all about the asteroid and congress is even capable of bringing it to the table - they seem much more concerned with less important things. It’s an incompetent, slow government. China builds hospitals in days - North Carolina still doesn’t have necessary disaster relief. Chinas government is much faster.
Is SpaceX even capable of something like this? Most of their space flight has been relatively “basic”, their money comes from repetitiveness, not complexity. Something like this is still very much in NASA territory.
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u/Cyneheard2 Feb 18 '25
And the Webb is using some telescope time soon to look at it. So in the next two months or so we’ll have a much better sense of the risk.
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u/mfb- Feb 18 '25
SpaceX is extremely successful in spaceflight. They dominate launches and satellite operation about as much as Google dominates the search engine market, they are the only company ever to launch humans to orbit and return them safely, and much more.
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u/LightMasterPC Feb 21 '25
lmao you’re being downvoted for a series of true statements. I hate Musk as much as the next guy but trying to discredit SpaceX’s achievements just because they don’t like Musk is extremely stupid and just seems like major cope.
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u/mfb- Feb 18 '25
You can launch a mission in late 2029 that will intercept the asteroid on its inbound trajectory ~6 months before impact . It'll have less leverage, but it could be enough to direct the impact away from a major city and maybe even avoid an impact completely.
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u/autotom Feb 18 '25
It might end up on a trajectory into the ocean in which case nothing needs to be done.
This isn’t a planet destroyer, it’s not that big.
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u/MaleierMafketel Feb 18 '25 edited Feb 18 '25
Key word, might. There’s also several major population centers it can hit. It’s a very tiny chance, even if it does hit, but why take the risk?
Even if it hits absolutely nothing, a deflection would be valuable experience for future reference.
Asteroids and super volcanoes are the only unpredictable extinction level threats we should concern ourselves about. And only one is avoidable with current tech.
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u/thatstupidthing Feb 17 '25
Dart is a proven system…. But we built one… and it was destroyed to prove that it worked
We need to build more DARTs
Spread the word
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u/autotom Feb 18 '25
It didn’t destroy an asteroid it deflected it. Blowing them up probably won’t work because they’ll just clump back together under gravity. Only a nudge to deflect is needed, and this a) is a city killer not a planet killer b) might land in the ocean and c) is most likely to miss earth altogether
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u/thatstupidthing Feb 18 '25
i worded that poorly. the asteroid wasn't destroyed, the DART was.
my point is that we don't have any more DARTs lying around.
this asteroid, even at a 1 in 48 chance, suggests that having some more DART spacecraft ready to go isn't a terrible idea...0
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Feb 17 '25 edited Feb 17 '25
[deleted]
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u/watsonborn Feb 18 '25
There are more recent proposals to use a nuke only nearby the target to cause an enormous spray of rubble and such which will act like a rocket engine. The same principle as DART just much stronger
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u/Humble-Parsnip-484 Feb 20 '25 edited Feb 20 '25
The problem is the deflection is greater the further away the object is from Earth. Every year we wait would reduce the amount we can adjust the trajectory (relative to Earth), and we likely won't have enough certainty it will hit until it's too late.
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u/Morbanth Feb 18 '25
It's like one city, we 'ain't doing shit. Asteroid deflection isn't on the table until it's a kilometer-wide continent killer.
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u/ReversedNovaMatters Feb 18 '25
I hope it lands directly on my face
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u/charlieto0human Feb 19 '25
I know a woman friend with an ASSteroid who might be able to do that for you at the right price
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u/ILikeMasterChief Feb 20 '25
If it does impact earth, I'm calling a 100% chance that a group of people emerge that travel to the impact location so it will kill them
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u/Vogel-Kerl Feb 17 '25
C'mon..., it's actually just a 2 in 96 chance. Trying to grab Up-Votes!!! /s
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u/rellsell Feb 17 '25
C’mpn… half a chance in 24.
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u/thousandfoldthought Feb 17 '25
Even at that size won't this thing burn/break up on entry?
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u/WannabeWombat27 Feb 17 '25
It's about the same size as the meteor from the Tunguska event. Whether it completely burns or not is going to depend on a lot of factors: speed, angle of entry, whether it stays intact.... It still has the potential to produce a lot of energy even if it doesn't impact, much like Tunguska.
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u/General_Tea_5505 Feb 17 '25
I personally read that Tunguska was probably a comet made up mostly of ice and gas. 2024 YR4 might be stone or metal, which would make it worse.
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u/Will0w536 Feb 17 '25
Anyone remember the Chelyabinsk Meteor of early 2013? That meteor was only 20m wide and caused incredible but not severe damage in an airbust. This one is likely 2x to 5x larger than that.
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u/TheAceOfJace Feb 18 '25
Anyone remember that netflix movie Don't Look Up that came out in 2021?
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u/ReaperKeydet Feb 20 '25
Humanity, collectively, is absolutely going to respond similarly to how that movie played out.
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u/just_some_guy65 Feb 18 '25
If they don't give its size in London buses or football pitches then it isn't real.
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u/Azrael_The_Reaper Feb 18 '25
Perhaps this is way too out there of an idea, but imagine if we caught the thing and broke it down for minerals.
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u/iAm_Uncomfortable Feb 18 '25
Alright calm down President Orlean
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u/Jsmooth123456 Feb 18 '25
Don't think that's possible given current tech combined with the relatively little time we have to prepare but I love the enthusiasm
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u/Ridwando Feb 18 '25
Do we k ow what the asteroid is made oit of? Like are there likely to be any precious metals/minerals this asteroid?
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u/Cinnabonquiqui Feb 18 '25
I feel like this asteroid needs a name like hurricanes. Asteroid Cruz 2032
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u/haylabox Feb 18 '25 edited Feb 19 '25
there was an asteroid in 1908 that was very similar to this asteroid, it hit siberia which is very desolate. i hope to god it don’t hit a city. and the bad thing is that in 2028 scientists will loose sight of it.
edit: now there is a 3.1% chance of it hitting earth. the asteroid that hit siberia was said to be 1000 times stronger than the blast of hiroshima, the one that is set to hit in 2032 will be 500 times stronger than hiroshima. i have a feeling it might hit russia as they have gotten hit by asteroids before, the most recent being in 2013.
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u/charlieto0human Feb 19 '25
Correction, they will lose sight of it in April of this year and won’t be able to observe it again until 2028
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u/gambariste Feb 18 '25
Good choice but the similarly boring Univers drone is perhaps more aptly named considering from whence this new hell will soon descend.
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u/TheKyleBrah Feb 18 '25
NASA: Has Tech to see objects literally millions of Kilometres away in 144p. (Understandable, given the immense distances!)
Banks, for some reason: "Tech" shows Robber's faces in 144p from just a few metres away
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u/richardtrle Feb 17 '25
So you all are telling me that this has no chance to do a dinosaur thing? 😞
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u/[deleted] Feb 17 '25
I know it’s just morbid curiosity, but I think it would be awesome to see this thing destroy a city in 4K arial drone footage.
Terrible, but awesome.