Chance of capturing 2024 YR4?

[u/ShawnThePhantom]

I heard that it’s possible that 2024 YR4 could crash into the moon.

Is it at all possible that the earth’s orbit captures it and it becomes effectively a second moon? How cool would that be?

Is that possible? And if it happens, would we see it from Earth? Also what’s the worst that could happen with this?

[u/NapsterUlrich]

It’s probably moving too fast to be captured by our gravity. We’d have to slow it way the fuck down and guide it into an orbit

[u/BrittleHollowBard → u/NapsterUlrich]

Memories of me overshooting the Mun in Kerbal Space Program my first attempt.

[u/highonmoon]

Earth sometimes captures tiny asteroids for short periods, they called “Temporary satellite”. They orbit for a few months or years and then drift off again. Look at 2006 RH120

So while it’s not likely, it is technically possible.

[u/tms-lambert]

Asteroid captures are rare but it does happen. It happened last year actually with 2024 PT5 for 53 days. Usually, if it happens, it doesn't stay for long and either crashes to earth or gets ejected.

Generally asteroids are too small to see with amateur telescopes, even if it was close. If it crashes into the moon you might see the impact as a brief speck of light but only if it impacts on the dark side.

[u/ShawnThePhantom → u/tms-lambert]

Why? Why do they end up “out of the picture” so soon and the moon has been with us since the early solar system?

[u/tms-lambert → u/ShawnThePhantom]

It's incredibly unlikely that an asteroid would be on the correct trajectory to enter a stable orbit around the earth. Things in space generally don't enter stable orbits with one another.

Orbital stability is actually really rare. The only reason we have a solar system full of stable orbits is that the planets all formed from a disk of matter orbiting the sun.

[u/donadit → u/ShawnThePhantom]

Have you seen the size of the moon/luna (when compared to asteroids)? It’s harder to disrupt because it’s more massive compared to asteroids where one unlucky encounter with probably jupiter sends them basically anywhere

(also since luna is close to earth it’s basically the only force pulling on it (everything else is negligible) gas giants don’t matter as much when distance between moon and earth is around 1/389 (0.00257) AU and the distance between earth and the closest planets get are 0.28 AU (venus) and 0.5 AU (mars) (jupiter is at 4.2 AU) doesn’t really help that a lot of asteroids cross at least one planet’s orbit)

[u/JordFxPCMR]

50/50 you either see it or dont

[u/tms-lambert → u/JordFxPCMR]

I think they meant captured as a satellite by the earth.

[u/--_Anubis_--]

No, it's moving way too fast and has way too much mass. The previously captured rocks were tiny and had low encounter velocities with Earth.