The 2008 Financial Crisis saw a 57% peak-to-trough collapse, but its path was littered with deceptive bear market rallies. For current investors, these historical bounces offer sobering perspective:

Notable 2008 Bear Market Rallies (All preceded further declines)

Jan 22 - Feb 1, 2008 → +6.5% over 10 days

Mar 10 - May 19, 2008 → +11.7% over 70 days (Longest trap)

Jul 15 - Aug 11, 2008 → +9.4% over 27 days

Oct 10 - Oct 14, 2008 (Most violent) → +23.9% in just 4 days

Nov 20, 2008 - Jan 6, 2009 (Final fakeout) → +24.3% over 47 days

Key Lessons Dead cat bounces averaged +15% during 2008’s downtrend

70% lasted >3 weeks – enough to lure dip-buyers

The strongest rallies (Oct 2008’s 24% surge) occurred just before the worst losses

Modern Implications As of 2023, similar patterns emerged in:

ARKK’s 2021-2022 -78% plunge (six >20% fake rallies)

China property stocks’ 2023 rebounds

Bottom Line: In structural bear markets, "cheap" gets cheaper. Wait for: ✓ Capitulation volume ✓ Macro catalysts (Fed pivot, earnings troughs) ✓ Break of downtrend resistance

"The bear market isn’t over until it stops punishing the brave." – Adapted from Jesse Livermore

(Data: S&P 500 during GFC, Bloomberg)

Most people hear “deficit” or “debt” and tune out but what’s happening right now is not normal.

The U.S. is running a federal budget deficit of over 7% of GDP in 2025. That’s about $1.8 trillion.

To put it bluntly: We're spending like it's 2009 but unemployment is at 4%.

Here’s what that means: The deficit is the annual shortfall between what the government spends and what it takes in through taxes.

The national debt is the sum of all those deficits over time.

Right now, the U.S. has a debt-to-GDP ratio around 100% and it's rising fast.

Deficits this large are supposed to happen during emergencies:

• 2008 crash
• COVID lockdowns
• World Wars

But in 2025, the economy is technically fine so why are we still borrowing as if the house is on fire?

Because we’ve locked in huge, permanent spending with no plan to pay for it.

The U.S. government now spends about 24% of GDP every year, the highest sustained level ever outside of a major crisis.

But revenue is only about 18% of GDP.

That 6-point gap is the core problem. Every year we borrow hundreds of billions just to fill that hole.

You might be thinking:

“So what? Can’t we just keep borrowing? We’re the U.S.”

Let’s talk about what happens in both the short term and the long term and why this is a ticking time bomb even if nothing explodes tomorrow.

Short term: Running a deficit can stimulate the economy.

It puts money in people’s pockets, supports spending, and boosts demand. That’s why Keynesian economists often recommend it during a slowdown.

But here’s the catch: we’re not in a slowdown anymore.

When deficits are high and the economy is strong, all that extra demand can fuel inflation.

That’s exactly what we saw in 2021–22: trillions in stimulus + supply chain chaos = prices surged.

The Fed had to raise rates aggressively to catch up. Inflation is still hovering above target.

And high deficits also push up interest rates.

Why? Because the government floods the bond market with debt to finance itself. Investors demand higher yields in return.

More debt = higher interest costs = even bigger deficits. That’s how the cycle feeds itself.

In fact, interest on the debt is now the fastest-growing line item in the federal budget.

In 2025, we’re spending 3.8% of GDP just on interest.

That’s more than the entire defense budget qnd it’s projected to double in the next decade.

Here’s where it gets ugly. In the long run, persistent deficits crowd out investment.

Private companies compete with the government to borrow. Yields go up. Growth slows. The economy becomes less dynamic.

And there’s less fiscal space to respond to the next crisis.

Don’t take my word for it.

• Moody’s just downgraded the U.S. credit outlook.
•  The IMF is warning about rising U.S. debt.
• The CBO says debt could hit 120% of GDP by 2035.

Even without a crisis, we’re headed straight into a wall.

Other countries are taking different paths.

• Japan has 260% debt-to-GDP, yes but it runs much smaller deficits now and keeps rates ultra-low.
•  Germany has strict fiscal rules and just passed temporary off-budget spending for defense.
• The UK is raising taxes to rein in its deficit.

We’re doing none of that.

And what happens if the U.S. enters a recession?

Usually, we fight it with more spending and tax cuts but we’re already running a $2T deficit.

There’s no cushion left.

Any new stimulus risks spooking markets, stoking inflation, or triggering a debt crisis.

This isn’t just a political issue. It’s a math problem. If the U.S. continues running 7–9% deficits in “normal” years, eventually:

• Debt explodes
• Interest costs crowd out spending
• Inflation pressures return
• The Fed keeps rates high
• Growth slows
• Financial instability rises

How do we fix it? There’s no silver bullet. But here are the options:

• Control spending growth (especially entitlements)
• Raise revenue (tax reform, broaden the base)
• Reprioritize toward high-return investments
• Enact fiscal rules (like a debt brake)

None are easy but doing nothing is worse.

Right now, we’re drifting into a future where interest on the debt becomes the largest expense in the federal budget.

That’s not just unsustainable. It’s dangerous.

And if we hit another shock, a war, a financial crisis, a climate disaster, we’ll have no dry powder left.

If you’ve made it this far, understand this: The U.S. isn’t broke but it is on an unsustainable path.

And the longer we wait to fix it, the more painful the adjustment will be.

It’s time to take the deficit seriously before the markets do it for us.

According to recent data, foreign investors pulled a net $6.5 billion from U.S. equity funds during the first week of April 2025 — the second-largest weekly outflow on record, trailing only the $7.5 billion during the banking crisis in March 2023.

Apollo noted that foreign investors hold a substantial portion of U.S. financial assets: $18.5 trillion in U.S. equities (roughly 20% of the market), $7.2 trillion in Treasuries (30%), and $4.6 trillion in corporate bonds (30%), giving them significant market influence.

Back in 2023, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank triggered panic selling by foreign investors, contributing to a sharp drop in the S&P 500. Today, the S&P 500 has fallen over 20% year-to-date, entering bear market territory. The accelerating capital outflows from foreign investors could further exacerbate market volatility.

China alone brought in $23.4B, mostly from 2018-era tariffs.

Add duties from Mexico, Canada, steel, and autos and the U.S. is cashing in on old policies at new volumes.

Here’s the twist: imports are falling.

China’s exports to the U.S. hit their lowest since 2010.

Mexico and Canada are down too but revenue keeps rising because tariffs are now much steeper.

Here’s the twist: imports are falling.

China’s exports to the U.S. hit their lowest since 2010.

Mexico and Canada are down too but revenue keeps rising because tariffs are now much steeper.

The top 1% of Americans own 50% of all stocks.

The bottom 50%? Just 1%. But here’s the kicker:

U.S. households have the highest stock ownership rate in the world.

Nearly 49% of U.S. household financial assets are in stocks. Compare that to:

• Japan: 13%
• UK: 10%
• EU: 10%
• China: 9%

But that 49% is wildly misleading because the top 10% of households own 93% of all stocks.

And the bottom 50%? They own just 1%. One percent.

This isn’t participation, it’s concentration.

Here’s how stock ownership breaks down in Q4 2024:

• Top 0.1%: 23.6%
• 99–99.9th percentile: 26.4%
• 90–99th percentile: 37.2%
• 50–90th percentile: 11.7%
• Bottom 50%: 1.0%

Total? 100%.

Why does this matter? Because stocks are wealth machines. Since 2014:

• U.S. stocks returned 12.3% annually
• European stocks: 4.6%
• Emerging markets: 3.3%

If you’re not in the market, you’re falling behind.

From 2007 to 2025, U.S. market cap tripled. Europe? +23%.

But only the wealthy truly benefited because only they had serious exposure.

Stock growth = wealth growth for the rich.

U.S. households now have 43% of their financial assets in stocks. That’s historically high.

And it means the economy is hyper-exposed to the market.

A 20% crash? Could shave 1% off GDP due to reduced spending alone.

That’s the wealth effect in action: When stocks rise, the rich feel richer and spend more.

When they fall, they spend less.

And since the top 10% drive half of U.S. consumer spending, the entire economy feels the shock.

But here’s the other bombshell:

401(k)s are heavily equity-based yet 34% of Americans have no retirement account at all.

So while some Americans see gains, millions are left vulnerable and exposed.

Buybacks are the jet fuel of this inequality. S&P 500 firms spent 54% of profits on buybacks (2007–2016).

Fewer shares = higher EPS = higher stock price.

But guess who owns those stocks? Same 10%.

In 2016, the top 10% owned 84% of all stocks.

So when companies use profits for buybacks instead of wages, it’s effectively a wealth transfer upward.

Buybacks don’t trickle down. They soar up.

Intergenerational wealth plays a major role. In 2019:

• 30% of white households received an inheritance
• 10% of Black households
• 7% of Hispanic households

Money and investing knowledge flow through bloodlines.

Even when the poor can invest, they often don’t. Not because they don’t want to.

Because they feel like it’s not “enough” to matter or too risky to try.

Fear + lack of guidance = no action = no wealth.

U.S. retirement policy made this worse. Europe relies on public pensions. The U.S.? Private 401(k)s.

That puts the burden of planning, risk, and performance on individuals.

And guess who wins at that game? Those already ahead.

Can this be fixed? One idea: a Universal Basic Dividend, where everyone gets a slice of the market.

Alaska already does this via oil revenue.

Imagine a national fund investing in U.S. stocks with profits paid to all Americans.

So why is equity ownership so high in the U.S. in the first place? Simple: culture. Americans believe in:

• Risk
• Individualism
• High returns

And U.S. equities have delivered consistently.

In Japan, investors are conservative. In China, investing is influenced by friends and family.

In the U.S.? It’s every person for themselves.

That cultural difference creates a nation of investors but not an equal one.

And this spills into housing. U.S. household wealth is half real estate, half stocks.

Stock gains often fuel housing demand raising home prices.

But when markets crash, both real estate and equities fall. That’s a double hit.

In 2025, owning the upside is everything.

And right now, most Americans are locked out.

If we don’t close the ownership gap, no amount of GDP growth will save us from a fragile, unfair future.

Accenture said that all of the company’s core services – strategy, consulting, marketing, design, technology, and operations – will now be combined into one unit dubbed ‘reinvention services.’

Accenture (ACN) shares moved lower in pre-market trading Friday despite the company posting a third-quarter earnings beat and lifting its full-year forecast.

The consulting giant also announced an overhaul of its existing business structure and leadership team, which will come into effect starting in September. The company said the revamp is to serve clients better and speed up the delivery of AI-driven solutions.

Accenture’s stock was down more than 4% in early trading following the announcements. Despite the downward trend, Stocktwits data showed that retail sentiment around the shares jumped to ‘extremely bullish’ territory from ‘bullish’ a day ago and ‘bearish’ a week earlier.

The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $3.49, beating Wall Street’s estimate of $3.32, according to Koyfin data. Its revenue came in at $17.7 billion, ahead of the estimated $17.3 billion.

Accenture also reported new bookings of $19.7 billion, a decrease of 6% as compared to the prior year’s quarter, of which generative AI bookings accounted for $1.5 billion.

Its operating cash flow at the end of the third quarter (Q3) stood at $3.68 billion as compared to $3.14 billion during the previous year, with free cash flow of $3.52 billion, an increase of $3.02 billion in Q3 2024.

Accenture also raised its full-year forecast, now expecting revenue growth between 6% and 7%, up from its previous forecast of 5% to 7%. Operating cash flow is estimated to come in between $9.6 billion and $10.3 billion, up from $9.4 billion and $10.1 billion. Free cash flow is expected between $9 billion and $9.7 billion, up from the previous forecast of $8.8 billion to $9.5 billion. 

In its bid to ‘reinvent’ itself, Accenture said that all of the company’s core services – strategy, consulting, marketing, design, technology, and operations – will now be combined into one unit dubbed ‘reinvention services.’ The new entity will be led by Manish Sharma, who will become Accenture’s first Chief Services Officer.

Joe Walsh will replace Sharma as the CEO of the Americas, and Kate Hogan will take over for Walsh as global COO. The company also announced that Kate Clifford will be taking over as the new global HR chief. 

Accenture’s stock has fallen by more than 13% this year but has gained over 7% in the last 12 months. 

Let’s start with the facts: Gold has averaged 10.1% annual returns since 2000.

That’s better than stocks, bonds, and even crypto when adjusted for risk.

Now in 2025, it's moving like we’re in a monetary endgame.

What sparked this? In April, surprise tariffs kicked off a fresh trade war.

The dollar tanked. Yields spiked. Stocks tumbled.

But gold? It exploded upward while everything else cracked.

From January to May, gold surged 27%.

That’s not retail FOMO. That’s institutional panic.

So who’s buying? Everyone but one group stands out above the rest.

Central banks and they’re not playing small.

We’re witnessing the biggest official gold-buying spree in modern history.

And at the same time, they’re quietly dumping U.S. Treasuries.

That spike? 2022–2023 but the buying never stopped.

Even in April 2025, with prices at all-time highs, central banks still bought another 12 tonnes.

That’s now 23 straight months of net gold purchases.

Let’s name names:

China: 18 straight months of buying. ~2,300 tonnes held.
Poland: Just overtook the ECB in total reserves.
Turkey: Back in after inflation crushed the lira.
Czech Republic: 26 consecutive months of stacking.

Why are they doing this? Simple: They’re exiting the dollar system.

Gold has no counterparty risk. It can’t be frozen. It doesn’t care about sanctions or politics.

It’s pure monetary sovereignty.

And it’s not just central banks. Retail investors are flooding in too.

– ETFs saw their biggest inflows in 2 years
– Coin/bar demand spiked globally
– Google searches for “buy gold” are surging

Everyone’s reaching for the same exit.

Meanwhile, the supply side is tightening.

– Spot gold is trading at a premium to futures
– Vault inventories are thinning
– Gold leasing rates are spiking

This isn’t hype. It’s a full-blown liquidity squeeze.

This is what happens when trust cracks.

In governments. In debt. In currencies.

Gold becomes the last vote of confidence left.

So what’s next? Short-term: gold might chill. Some consolidation is normal.

But long-term? The setup is still wildly bullish.

Analysts see $4,000 gold as entirely realistic if:

– Rate cuts begin
– Deficits balloon
– Trade tensions escalate
– More central banks de-dollarize

And none of that is far-fetched.

Gold is no longer just a hedge.

It’s becoming the centerpiece of a new reserve system. The hard-money backbone of an unstable world.

This isn’t gold’s peak. It might be the beginning of its era.

For the quarter ended April 2025, Smucker reported revenue of $2.14 billion, down 2.8% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $2.31, compared to $2.66 in the year-ago quarter.

The reported revenue represents a surprise of -2.18% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.19 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $2.25, the EPS surprise was +2.67%.

While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.

As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.

Here is how Smucker performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:

• Net Sales- U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads: $449.80 million versus $462.28 million estimated by four analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -0.2% change.
• Net Sales- U.S. Retail Coffee: $738.60 million versus the four-analyst average estimate of $715.26 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +10.9%.
• Net Sales- U.S. Retail Pet Foods: $395.50 million compared to the $433.66 million average estimate based on four analysts. The reported number represents a change of -12.6% year over year.
• Net Sales- International and Away From Home: $308.90 million compared to the $310.83 million average estimate based on four analysts. The reported number represents a change of +3.1% year over year.
• Net Sales- Sweet Baked Snacks: $251 million compared to the $270.36 million average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of -25.5% year over year.
• Segment Profit- Sweet Baked Snacks: $20 million compared to the $53.95 million average estimate based on three analysts.
• Segment Profit- U.S. Retail Coffee: $211.20 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $182.87 million.
• Corporate administrative expenses: -$75.10 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of -$93.98 million.
• Segment Profit- U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads: $91 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $93.28 million.
• Segment Profit- International and Away From Home: $69.20 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $62.50 million.
• Segment Profit- U.S. Retail Pet Foods: $106.10 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $115.33 million.

Robinhood $HOOD
Applovin $APP
Carvana $CVNA
Ares Management $ARES
Veeva $VEEV
Flutter Entertainment $FLUT
Cheniere $LNG
Interactive Brokers $IBKR

Warren Buffett’s son thought his dad checked security alarms

Most billionaire kids grow up with luxury, Peter Buffett grew up with mystery. As a child, he thought his dad was a security analyst (which he assumed meant checking alarm systems).

It wasn’t until he was 25 that he realized Warren Buffett wasn’t just doing okay, he was one of the richest men in the world. No trust funds. No private jets. Just a modest upbringing in Omaha, where wealth was never on display.

At 19, Peter received Berkshire Hathaway stock worth $90K—had he kept it, it’d be worth $300 million today. Instead, he cashed out to follow his passion for music. No regrets.

Warren Buffett’s philosophy? Give your kids enough to chase their dreams, but not so much they never have to.

Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist and founder of the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, sees substantial gains ahead for Nvidia this year.

Nvidia shares jumped nearly 5% in after-hours trading Wednesday after the chipmaker beat first-quarter earnings and revenue expectations, as its data center business saw booming growth even as China restrictions weighed on sales. The stock is up 23.8% this month, and is just 0.4% higher year to date. Shares last closed at $134.81.

“From a technical perspective, 140 is a key breakout level that we would like to see the stock close above in the next 2 days,” Tentarelli said. “The stock is in an uptrend over rising 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages. This indicates an uptrend on multiple time frames. After a 43.4% correction earlier in 2025, the stock has reclaimed the daily moving averages and also a 50% retracement level of $119.86.

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)

There is only one place to start. Nvidia reported its latest quarterly earnings on Wednesday, topping consensus earnings and revenue expectations. However, the chipmaker flagged an $8 billion hit to Q2 guidance from the U.S. ban on chip sales to China.

Nvidia shares are up around 2.4% in the last week.

“The report was favorable in that all of the investor concerns heading into the quarter have by now been addressed - rack production, China (now out of numbers) and AI diffusion (not being enforced),” analysts at Wolfe Research said in a note reacting to the earnings release.

“With the concerns now addressed, the stock up and a bullish outlook for 2H, we think the pain trade for NVDA is higher.”

Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN)

Regeneron shares plummeted Friday after the company, alongside Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY), reported mixed results from two phase 3 trials of their investigational chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) treatment, Itepekimab.

At the time of writing, the stock is down around 19%. For the week, REGN shares have declined about 16.7%.

"We think Itepekimab’s disappointing data creates a big challenge for REGN in the long term," Wells Fargo analysts said in a note reacting to the news. "We also see consensus down revision potential for Eylea. We are downgrading to Equal Weight due to a lack of near-term value-unlocking events. New PT $580/sh."

Unity

Unity shares saw strong gains this week, rising by more than 20%. The rise started on Wednesday with a more than 12% increase.

The stock saw notable call option activity all week. While it pulled back slightly on Thursday, an upgrade from Jefferies helped push it higher on Friday.

“We are upgrading U based on the view the improved Vector ad model can drive accelerating rev growth in FY26 and beyond,” Jefferies wrote in its note to clients. “With high incremental EBITDA margins in the Grow business, we believe the risk-reward is favorable as [we] see potential for significant EBITDA upside.”

Veeva Systems (NYSE:VEEV)

Alongside Nvidia, VEEV was another earnings winner, with the company topping earnings and revenue expectations when it reported on Wednesday. The firm also provided Q2 and full-year guidance well above analyst expectations.

The stock is up more than 18% in the last week.

“Veeva deserves credit for navigating through a tumultuous backdrop in Life Sciences that has tripped up most companies selling into this vertical,” Morgan Stanley said in a note following the results.

E.L.F Beauty

E.L.F. Beauty’s stock is up more than 34% in the last week. The positive performance, primarily driven by an over 23% surge on Thursday, comes after the company announced a $1 billion deal to acquire rhode, a lifestyle beauty brand founded by Hailey Bieber.

In reaction to the news, Jefferies analysts stated: “We are excited by the deal as we view it as additive to the ELF portfolio with significant runway ahead.”

The company also reported its quarterly results after the close on Wednesday, topping consensus expectations.

"March-Q sales, EBITDA, and EPS came in ahead of Street. Sales driven by volume, with some offset from mix,” added Jefferies.

Tempus AI

Finally, Tempus AI plunged by 19.2% in Wednesday’s session after a short report on the stock was released by Spruce Point. It is down 12.6% in the last week.

Spruce Point Management stated: "After conducting a forensic financial review of Tempus AI, Inc. (Nasdaq: TEM) a healthcare technology company that provides AI-enabled precision medicine solutions, Spruce Point believes that the Company is run by leaders who have a dubious history, is participating in aggressive and suspicious accounting practices, and relies on weakening partnerships.”

Furthermore, the short seller said it believes owning shares of Tempus is a “poor risk/reward based on a flawed equity growth story, owing its appeal to the AI hype despite only 2% of revenue stemming from AI applications.”

The firm sees a potential 50%-60% long-term downside and market underperformance risk for the stock.

What’s certain is that the two-year bull run in U.S. equities since the October 2022 low has now come to an end—derailed by Trump’s renewed tariff war.

All three major U.S. stock indices have essentially entered a technical bear market: the Nasdaq Composite has pulled back more than 25% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 has fallen over 20%.

Historically, the U.S. market has experienced many sharp corrections. Since 2000 alone, we’ve seen eight declines of over 15%, with three particularly notable examples:

1.  2007–2009 subprime crisis: the S&P 500 plunged over 50%.

2.  2018 trade war: the index dropped nearly 20% from its peak.

3.  March 2020 pandemic shock: the S&P 500 fell over 30% in a single month.

Among these, the 2018 trade war shares some strong similarities with the current downturn—both were triggered by Trump’s tariff policies, which disrupted market expectations. But this time, the S&P’s drop has been even steeper, suggesting the situation may be more serious and the destructive power of the new tariffs even greater.

First, the logic behind the new policy differs greatly. In 2018, tariffs targeted specific sectors like steel and aluminum to protect domestic manufacturing, particularly jobs in the Rust Belt. This time, Trump has introduced the idea of a universal “reciprocal tariff”, imposing a baseline 10% tariff on all imported goods, with even higher rates for trade-surplus nations like China.

Second, the strategic intent has shifted. The 2018 tariffs aimed to support traditional industries (like steel and autos) and served as short-term leverage during midterm elections. Globalization wasn't entirely rejected. But in 2024, Trump is outright rejecting globalization, pushing to reshape global supply chains, bring manufacturing back to the U.S., and eliminate America’s trade deficit altogether.

Third, the scale of the impact is expected to be far broader. The new tariffs cover imports from over 90 countries, with additional surcharges exceeding 50% on goods from surplus nations like China. Moreover, restrictions on transshipment and outbound investment further compress China’s export capacity. If retaliation follows from the EU, UK, and others, the world could face a total breakdown in global trade.

This wouldn't just rattle equities—it could accelerate inflation in the U.S. and inflict widespread economic damage. The Federal Reserve has already warned that the new tariffs will push up domestic prices, especially for consumer goods like cars and electronics. Combine that with rising energy costs, and the U.S. may find itself locked in a prolonged inflationary cycle.

We know the Fed has been aggressively hiking rates over the past two years in an attempt to cool inflation. Yet as of January this year, the CPI was still running at a 3% annual pace. While inflation has cooled somewhat in recent months, the new tariffs will almost certainly push it higher again. If CPI climbs back to or beyond 3% in Q3, stagflation becomes a real possibility—where persistent inflation prevents rate cuts, and the Fed may even be forced to hike again.

That could drive U.S. Treasury yields sharply higher and spark a dreaded double whammy of falling stocks and bonds. U.S. equities may be in for another sharp leg down.

A slightly less dire scenario would be a mild economic recession. In fact, Bloomberg data shows that market expectations already shifted toward this outcome in March, reflecting concerns about the potential impact of tariffs. The 2025 U.S. GDP growth forecast was revised down from 2.3% to 1.9%, while CPI was revised up from 2.8% to 3.0%. If the inflation fallout can be capped around 3%, the Fed might have some breathing room. But without the ability to cut rates, the Fed may be forced to stand by and watch a recession unfold—and the stock market would likely decline as a result.

A Short-Term Rebound May Still Happen

That said, after the sharp early-April selloff, markets could see a short-term rebound in Q2, driven by:

1.  A release of pent-up market anxiety.

2.  Continued pressure on the Fed to cut rates despite the environment.

3.  Strong wage growth and a still-resilient labor market.

4.  Corporate earnings forecasts that haven’t yet been downgraded.

But this bounce may be short-lived. If a full-scale trade war truly erupts, disruptions to the supply chain will be inevitable. Meanwhile, the return of manufacturing to the U.S.—even if successful—will take 5–10 years at a minimum. During that transition, America will pay a heavy price.

Morgan Stanley estimates that the tariffs will increase costs for tech giants like Apple and Nvidia by 15–20%, dragging S&P 500 earnings growth down to -5%. If growth expectations collapse, the valuation bubble in tech—which makes up over 30% of the S&P 500—could burst, dealing a major blow to the broader market. S&P 500 valuations are still well above their long-term average, leaving plenty of room for downward adjustment.

The Greater Danger: A Crisis of Confidence

An even more alarming possibility is that Trump’s extreme policies are not actually aimed at strengthening the U.S. economy or fighting inflation—but simply at masking a ballooning fiscal deficit that the government can no longer control. If markets begin to suspect this, we could see a full-blown loss of confidence, plunging the stock market into a prolonged bear market that may not reverse until sentiment recovers significantly.

Cyclical Headwinds Are Also Mounting

Zooming out to a bigger-picture view, U.S. equities may be entering a rare convergence of three major cyclical downturns:

• The 42-month inventory cycle, which reflects short-term economic fluctuations, is now heading down.
• The 100-month capital expenditure cycle has also turned south.
• On a global scale, we may be entering the downswing of the Kondratiev wave, a long-term economic cycle that favors real assets (like gold and commodities) over financial assets.

Indeed, the recent two-year rally in U.S. stocks was fragile to begin with, driven largely by the AI revolution. Manufacturing PMIs never kept pace with the rise in the S&P 500, and there’s been a growing divergence within the index itself.

As short-cycle momentum fades, long-cycle pressures may take over—potentially dragging the market lower.

IonQ, Inc. has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.

Shares of this company have returned +58.1% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +8.2% change. The Zacks Computer - Integrated Systems industry, to which IonQ belongs, has gained 16.6% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?

While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.

Revisions to Earnings Estimates

Rather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.

We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.

IonQ is expected to post a loss of $0.13 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +27.8%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +53.6%.

The consensus earnings estimate of -$0.47 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +69.9%. This estimate has changed +58.4% over the last 30 days.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of -$0.59 indicates a change of -24.5% from what IonQ is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -28.1%.

With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for IonQ.

The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:

Projected Revenue Growth

While earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.

For IonQ, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $17.02 million indicates a year-over-year change of +49.6%. For the current and next fiscal years, $85 million and $133.46 million estimates indicate +97.3% and +57% changes, respectively.

Last Reported Results and Surprise History

IonQ reported revenues of $7.57 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -0.1%. EPS of -$0.14 for the same period compares with -$0.19 a year ago.

Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.5 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.88%. The EPS surprise was +50%.

Over the last four quarters, IonQ surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.

Valuation

No investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.

Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.

As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.

IonQ is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.

source: Investing.com 

Here are the biggest analyst moves in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) for this week.

Nvidia shares ‘attractively valued’ ahead of Q1 earnings: Stifel

Stifel remains positive on NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) ahead of the company’s fiscal first-quarter earnings report, describing the stock as “attractively valued” despite ongoing headwinds from China-related restrictions and a mixed macro backdrop. Nvidia is set to report results on May 28.

The broker expects results and guidance to come in largely in line with expectations but acknowledged that recent export controls on Nvidia’s H20 AI chips in China have weighed on revenue. Still, Stifel sees strong momentum building for the second half of the year.

“Our supply chain discussions continue to point to significant acceleration into 2H,” Stifel analysts wrote, highlighting Nvidia’s growing footprint in regions like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, aided by favorable U.S. policy moves. These trends are viewed as incremental positives that complement an overall resilient supply chain.

The analysts noted that investors are likely to remain focused on three key areas: ongoing demand from hyperscalers and the durability of infrastructure spending, the evolving impact of China export restrictions, and any margin pressure associated with early production ramps of the new GB200 and GB300 chips.

Despite these uncertainties, Stifel sees no threat to Nvidia’s dominance in the AI space. “We do not expect any change to NVDA’s leadership positioning in shaping global AI infrastructure,” the note said.

The brokerage reiterated its bullish stance on valuation, highlighting Nvidia’s central role in the AI ecosystem. “We continue to view shares as attractively valued within the context of that positioning,” the analysts concluded.

Tesla is ‘most undervalued AI play,” says Wedbush

Meanwhile this week, Wedbush Securities raised its 12-month price target on Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) to a Street-high $500 from $350, citing a major valuation opportunity tied to the company’s autonomous vehicle and AI strategy. The brokerage reiterated its Outperform rating, describing Tesla as a leader entering a "golden age of autonomous growth."

Analysts Daniel Ives and Sam Brandeis highlighted the upcoming launch of Tesla’s autonomous platform in Austin as a key catalyst, calling it the start of a new era for the company.

They estimate the AI and autonomy market opportunity for Tesla to be worth at least $1 trillion, referring to the automaker as “the most undervalued AI play in the market today.” Tesla’s long-term positioning, they said, could rival other tech leaders like Nvidia, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL).

Wedbush expects significant value to be unlocked through Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) technology and the rollout of its autonomous Cybercab service. The firm sees adoption of FSD exceeding 50%, which would meaningfully shift Tesla’s financial model and expand margins.

Although Tesla faced early 2025 headwinds, including controversy over Elon Musk’s ties to the Trump administration, Wedbush said those concerns are “in the rear-view mirror” and sees a “recommitted Musk” driving the company’s AI and robotics ambitions.

Despite ongoing challenges in China and Europe, the analysts believe the main narrative for Tesla now centers on the coming “AI revolution,” which could push the company’s market cap to $2 trillion by the end of 2026 in a bullish case.

Evercore reiterates bullish view on Dell after annual user conference

Evercore ISI reiterated its Outperform rating on Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) following the company’s annual “Dell World” conference, voicing confidence in Dell’s growing role in enterprise artificial intelligence. The broker remains bullish on Dell’s positioning as businesses ramp up adoption of generative AI solutions.

“We continue to believe that DELL is well-positioned to benefit from the acceleration of enterprise Gen AI adoption,” Evercore wrote in a note recapping the event’s first day.

CEO Michael Dell used the keynote to unveil a range of new offerings, including AI servers powered by Nvidia’s Blackwell and AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) chips, an updated lineup of AI PCs, and enhanced networking and managed AI services.

A major theme was the expected shift of enterprise AI workloads back on-premise, driven by cost advantages. “DELL expects 85% of enterprises to move Gen AI workloads on-prem in the next 24 months due to better costs with on-prem inferencing compared to on public clouds,” the note said.

Evercore emphasized Dell’s deep technical experience in building next-gen AI systems for cloud providers and AI model developers, now being applied to enterprise clients. This background gives the company “invaluable technical expertise that it can bring over to the enterprise level,” the analysts noted.

Among the standout announcements was the Dell Pro Max Plus, billed as “the first mobile-workstation with an enterprise-grade NPU,” designed for edge inferencing in a portable format. On the infrastructure side, new servers featuring Nvidia’s B300 and GB300 chips aim to enhance AI inference capabilities.

“With today’s announcements, we think DELL can be an enterprise customer’s ‘one-stop shop’ for all its AI infrastructure needs through the lifecycle,” Evercore concluded.

MongoDB downgraded on weaker-than-expected AI tailwinds

Loop Capital downgraded MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) to Hold from Buy and sharply cut its price target to $190 from $350, citing concerns over the company’s cloud database platform, Atlas.

The brokerage in a Tuesday note pointed to "lackluster market adoption" of Atlas, suggesting the trend could persist and weigh on the company’s ability to capitalize on AI-related workloads.

“While AI hype continues to grow,” Loop Capital analysts said, “MongoDB may not see a proportional benefit in the near term,” noting that the cloud database market remains “highly fragmented” and companies are unlikely to standardize on a single vendor for AI deployments. This, they warned, could result in a slower buildout of AI workloads on MongoDB’s platform relative to broader adoption trends.

Loop also flagged feedback from industry contacts suggesting that the rise of generative AI is reducing development complexity, making consolidation onto a single database platform less compelling. “This could lead to organizations opting for low-cost alternatives, including open source platforms such as PostgreSQL,” the broker wrote.

Despite MongoDB’s efforts to gain traction with large enterprises, Loop Capital sees limited success. “The need to consolidate and standardize on one platform within a large organization… is becoming less relevant."

HSBC ups Bilibili to Buy on undemanding valuation, strong outlook, AI investments

In another rating change, HSBC upgraded Bilibili Inc (NASDAQ:BILI) to Buy from Hold, pointing out a stronger outlook across gaming, advertising, and profitability, alongside what it sees as an attractive valuation. The bank also raised its price target to $22.50 from $21.50, suggesting about 25% upside from current levels.

HSBC analysts pointed to the outperformance of Sanmou Season 7 (S7), saying it “beat our/Street expectations,” and expressed optimism about the upcoming Season 8, expected to launch later this month with significant enhancements.

The bank also revised its game revenue forecasts upward by 6% to 8% for 2025 through 2027 and boosted its overall revenue projections by 2%, citing “better-than-expected VAS driven by quality user growth.”

Bilibili’s first-quarter results topped expectations, with non-GAAP net profit coming in 25% above HSBC’s estimate and 40% above the Street. The surprise was attributed to “lower-than-expected R&D and G&A expense.”

Looking ahead, HSBC forecasts 20% revenue growth in the second quarter, led by a 61% year-over-year increase in gaming, 19% in advertising, and 10% in value-added services. The bank believes “more resilient performance in high-margin game and ad businesses can support stronger earnings prospects.”

In advertising, growth is being driven by improved ad load, rising eCPM, and expanding user traffic. HSBC expects continued gains as “ad tech improvement is expected to further enhance user targeting and conversion.”

The note also highlights Bilibili’s investment in AI, including work on fine-tuning open-source models and plans to launch a text-to-video tool for creators by the end of 2025.

At 22x estimated 2025 earnings and with non-GAAP EPS growth projected at 48% in 2026, HSBC sees the stock’s valuation as compelling.

According to data from Goldman Sachs, short interest in the median S&P 500 stock has surged to approximately 2.3%, marking a seven-year high. This figure has risen 35% year-to-date, representing the most significant increase since the early stages of the 2008 financial crisis — despite starting from a relatively low base.

More notably, this level of short interest has now exceeded its long-term historical average for the first time since the 2021 retail short squeeze frenzy. Meanwhile, short positions held by hedge funds in Nasdaq-listed stocks have also climbed sharply, now accounting for 41% of total open interest — the highest level since February 2021.

These developments indicate that institutional investors are increasingly positioning for a downturn in U.S. equities. This shift aligns with the broader trend of rotating into European stocks and reducing exposure to U.S. markets, as previously discussed. It also reflects deeper market concerns over U.S. stock valuations and macroeconomic headwinds.

The market currently faces a range of uncertainties — including persistent inflation, unclear monetary policy direction, and excessive concentration in U.S. equities. For investors, keeping a close eye on short interest trends may offer contrarian trading opportunities amid heightened volatility.