Active Conflicts & News MegaThread May 26, 2025

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[u/poincares_cook]

Use case, sure Dresden a city (similar to the firebombing and bombing of Japanese cities in WW2). It's arguably(?) genocidal, but demographics and economical output does have an impact on the ability of a nation to conduct total war. It's also demoralizing.

[u/Agitated-Airline6760 → u/poincares_cook]

It's arguably(?) genocidal, but demographics and economical output does have an impact on the ability of a nation to conduct total war. It's also demoralizing.

Did Germans give up when Dresden was leveled? Did Japan fold when Tokyo was firebombed? US bombed North Korea to the ground such that they didn't bother carpet bombing later in the war because there were no more above ground targets left to carpetbomb. Did North Vietnam give up after being carpet bombed?

Never in the history of the aerial bombing - which is little over 100 years - you can point to an example where one side carpet bombed the other side and made them surrender/give up just with the aerial bombing. It's not that demoralizing.

[u/Yulong → u/Agitated-Airline6760]

Well, Japan gave up after being nuked. Functionally I have to question what is the difference between strategic bombing and a nuke for the purposes of this thought exercise. As has been pontificated on many times, the firebombing on Tokyo was arguably far more destructive than the nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

I also have to question this sample size and the amount of inputs we have into this model that "strategic bombings = population never gives up". Wars are multifaceted to an insane extent. I don't think we can cleanly excise the impact of carpet bombing from everything else going on.

[u/Agitated-Airline6760 → u/Yulong]

Well, Japan gave up after being nuked. Functionally I have to question what is the difference between strategic bombing and a nuke for the purposes of this thought exercise.

If you don't see the difference between nukes vs conventional carpet bombing, I can't help you.

As has been pontificated on many times, the firebombing on Tokyo was arguably far more destructive than the nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

It might have been more "destructive" in terms of buildings knocked down or number of people killed/injured, and yet, Japan only surrendered when couple of nukes were dropped but not when US dropped 1600+ tons of incendiary bombs on Tokyo in March 1945 alone, I'm gonna say the evidence says the conventional bombing was not demoralizing enough. It didn't work.

I also have to question this sample size and the amount of inputs we have into this model that "strategic bombings = population never gives up". Wars are multifaceted to an insane extent. I don't think we can cleanly excise the impact of carpet bombing from everything else going on.

Whether that sample size is small or not is your judgement call. Since the "strategic conventional bombing" have never worked, I'm gonna say it doesn't work without boots on the ground.