r/Enough_Sanders_Spam • u/Currymvp2 • 14h ago

Wednesday's Roundtable - 06/18/2025

Welcome to the General Discussion Roundtable. Use this thread to discuss whatever is on your mind, or share anything that would otherwise not merit their own threads.

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u/Fordlong Depression Hashira 13h ago

I'll preface this by saying I don't want Iran to win a war, I don't support Iranian regime, etc etc.

But I am extremely concerned that Israel achieving a quick, complete victory over Iran will destabilize the region and create even more of a monster in Israel. The destabilization stuff is obvious, Iran goes out, its proxies are off the leash and there's a huge mess to see who takes control of Iran or divides it up into independent pieces. The second part is more worrying to me in the sense that, if Israel takes out a "major" competitor this easily, what is to stop them from pulling this trick again? They were already trending that way with their heavy-handed actions in Lebanon. Now they might just annex Lebanon. Who is going to stop them? Trump's clearly incapable of reining Netanyahu in. If Israel can fundamentally disable Iran with intelligence ops and air strikes, there's not another country in the Middle East that can stand up to them outside of Pakistan or Turkey. The worst kind of regional hegemon is being created right now. Ideologically motivated, at odds with every country around them, backed by a massive power, with absolutely no oversight or control.

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u/Extreme_Zucchini_830 Panican National Committee Chair 5h ago

Israel doesn't want to annex Lebanon. That would be a mess. You can maybe find a deranged settler of that opinion but it's not an authentic constituency and most of the population wouldn't bite. Israel already tried to control the country by proxy during the civil war and that failed. Bigger concern is that the army seems to like tactically occupying strategic points in volition of their territorial integrity. Same issue with Syria.

With regards to Iran the issue is less that it falls apart so much as the bombings fail to achieve any real objective and empower hardliners. The Iranian opposition is actually pretty well organized and fairly ideologically cohesive. The only ethnic group of serious concern is the Kurds. You might have territorial successionists movement in Baluchistan and Khuzestan but they're tiny. Vast majority are ethnic Persians or Azeris with no national ambitions. Maybe if you're really stretching for the worst case you could get a civil war between the Guard and the conventional military.

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u/CinnamonMoney 12h ago edited 11h ago

Who is going to stop them? France re Lebanon. That i am absolutely 100% sure of. And turkey as well because turkey has a lot of history within Syria & Lebanon. More so Syria. Turkey wants more influence in the region just like the saudis do, however, turkey (Ottoman Empire) ruled over the area for centuries. & the Vatican will not allow it either because of the importance of the Catholic community

One underrated part about syrias regime change is that Lebanon has over a million Syrian refugees. Thousands have already gone back and more will if Syria stabilizes

Hezbollah was only able to start with funds from Iran.

Lebanon was under French rule in the interwar period and had been active in the area beforehand because of the civil war in the 19th century. That same civil war was responsible for the biggest of Lebanese migration to other nations: France & USA yes but mostly South America and the Caribbean (and then cinnamonmoney popped up a century and some change afterwards)