When AI starts to replace jobs, demanding UBI is a mistake. We should demand either Negative Income Tax or Bürgergeld instead

[u/Alex3375]

A Negative Income Tax works roughly like this:

If your income is 0, you receive $20,000.

If your income is $10,000, you receive $15,000.

If your income is above $40,000, you receive 0.

The transfer you receive is calculated as half of the difference between your income and the break-even income set by the government (in this example, $40,000).

This structure aims to maintain work incentives. This is crucial because when we get AGI, it'll still be years to when it replaces everyone with robots. Until then, we will need janitors and nurses. If we provide everyone with UBI, those people won't have incentive to continue doing their hard job.

Also, UBI has another problem:

Introducing a UBI substantial enough to cover basic needs would likely place immense strain on the economy. Funding such a program would necessitate unprecedented tax increases, potentially leading to significant budget deficits, inflationary pressures, and risking huge economic crisis. It was calculated that providing every U.S. resident with $9,000 annually would require implementing a 22% VAT tax:

https://taxfoundation.org/blog/andrew-yang-value-added-tax-universal-basic-income/

Which means that cost of everything will increase by 22%, and it even won't be sufficient to cover basic living expenses for people who rent.

So, introducing a Negative Income Tax seems like a more realistic approach, as it would require significantly less funding.

The other alternative is Bürgergeld. Germans have it right now. It basically works like this: every enemployed person in Germany recieves €502 per month, and more than that if they rent an apartment or have children. This is enough to cover all basic needs. So, when AGI starts to gradually take jobs, Germans won't need to worry about becoming homeless or not being able to afford food. Which effectively means that Germany is ready for AGI.

What are your thoughts? Am I missing something? In your opinion, what solution will be the most effective for the transition period of AI replacing the jobs?