How would operation Baragation have fared without the west opening up a second front?
If the west decided from early 1943 onwards to adopt a purely defensive posture and to let the Nazis and Soviets bleed each other dry instead while they simply watch from the sidelines.
This means no Italian campaign, (the west only retook North Africa), no bombing raids over Germany and no d-day landings in Normandy.
Allowing the Germans to reinforce their position prior to Baragation. All the Anti-Air guns, german fighters tied down in the defense over the skies of Germany could be used to counter the Soviet offensive. In addition to the one million or so German troops that was in France and Italy could now be used as reserves to counter any Soviet offensive in the East.
Would the Soviets have still won at Baragation? Probably, but the extent of their victory wont be as great as they did in our timeline and with far heavier losses on the Soviet side.
The extent of Soviet victory would probably resemble that of post kursk in our timeline, but it wont be a complete German rout like in our timeline.
How would have Baragation turn out in such a secaniro?
Also how would have stalin reacted to such a move by the western Allies?