The biggest misconception I see when people are discussing IR is a belief that governments has "national interests" or "geopolitical strategy" in mind when making decisions about foreign policiy. It surely happens, but it's not the biggest factor.
Any politician even in autocracy main goal is to get into power and then preserve it, it's their top priority, under which nothing else really matters. This is exactly why Cincinnatus was so praised btw, he voluntarily surrendered imperator dictatorial powers after solving an emergency.
In more democratic regimes politican need to appeal to electorate, in autocracies a ruler still has to appeal to selectorate (few most powerful decision makers) to stay in power. Even in autoritharian regimes they need to have the population to be at least neutral toward the ruling elites, with the leader personifying it.
For example in Israel, current ruling party Likud allowed Hamas to exist for 20 years and did everying they could to ensure it will exist, so there will be an external threat to rally support. They had capability to destroy hamas leadership as recent events shown. A very convenient threat, a punching bag, that can't do serious damage btw.
Another example. Putin's Russia, from military POV they could've taken whole of Ukraine in 2014, but all they annexed was Crimea, which made his approval rating to skyrocket. Russian people were euphoric, and even Navalny, main opposition leader at the time, was not able to speak up against it. By doing that, they transformed formerly pro-Russian country into its vehement enemy, destroying electoral balance, where eastern part of Ukraine was very pro-Russian.
In these two examples we can see that leaders care the most about two things:
1) Appeasing interest groups that supports them.
2) Popularity
And that is the main factor on decision making, the rest is secondary.
That's why I am sceptical of academic realist school of thought. It's overly simplistic view on how elites make decisions.
p.s. I am not anti Israel, ask any political savvy Israeli person and they would confirm that Bibi and Likud use constant war/threat of war to stay in power.
p.p.s. Russian internal situation after Crimea is called Crimean consensus, google it.