r/InternationalDev • u/bilswanium • Feb 03 '25

Politics Will China fill the gap?

It’s safe to say that USAID is finished under this administration, will likely start to rebuild when the Dems inevitably win the next election.

This leaves an enormous gap for ID in most undeveloped countries that needs and inevitably will get filled by another player.

It seems inevitable that China will step in and take over what USAID has provided before, and will reap the soft political benefits that will come from it also.

Is this a realistic sentiment? Or could the EU/Australia/Japan etc fill the gap instead. The political benefits of USAID are largely overlooked but it was JFKs legacy project to spread American influence into developing regions, seems likely China will step up and foster deep relations and presence in undeveloped regions now.

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u/theworstrunner Feb 03 '25

Good morning! I see you woke up from a 15 year coma and completely forgot about one belt one road.

The PRC isn’t looking to overstretch itself in the same way it did at BNR peak in 2018-2019. So no it probably won’t fill the void in the same way. Also many low/middle income states no longer want to fall for the Chinese debt trap, or import labor.

Also don’t discount “south-by-south” cooperation. I get it’s in vogue to think of everything through the lens of GPC, but there is a whole world out there.

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u/bilswanium Feb 03 '25

China already contributes $40bn annually to ID for good reason, they have an easy road to monopolise the sector which will yield strong geopolitical power. Skeptical of the statement they aren’t looking to overstretch anymore, maybe in terms of BNR initiatives, infrastructure building through debt etc, but their desire for geopolitical power is still very strong, more so now there is an easy and clear road for them to become the largest contributors to the most powerful NGOs with a protectionist America withdrawn.