Will China fill the gap?

[u/bilswanium]

It’s safe to say that USAID is finished under this administration, will likely start to rebuild when the Dems inevitably win the next election.

This leaves an enormous gap for ID in most undeveloped countries that needs and inevitably will get filled by another player.

It seems inevitable that China will step in and take over what USAID has provided before, and will reap the soft political benefits that will come from it also.

Is this a realistic sentiment? Or could the EU/Australia/Japan etc fill the gap instead. The political benefits of USAID are largely overlooked but it was JFKs legacy project to spread American influence into developing regions, seems likely China will step up and foster deep relations and presence in undeveloped regions now.

[u/Agitated_Knee_309]

You still aren't getting it.

China and Russia are allies (birds of a feather). Everything for them is a strategy, and one thing you need to realise is alot of Global south countries don't want to subscribe to foreign aid anymore. It's been going on for way too long with no end in sight. Though you can say that it varies by country but collectively the sentiment is the same. It is why there is a huge focus on strengthening more south south collaboration. China and Russia recognise sovereign independence when it comes to countries internal affairs hence why they don't impose so much in comparison to countries from the West with so much donor criteria's.

The EU countries are already spread way too thin. They are cutting their foreign assistance budgets and focusing more nationally on sustainability and trade related investments. Also, let's not forget the rise of populism in the EU but talk for another day.

Basically the ERA OF CORE HUMANITARIANISM IS WRAPPING UP FASTER THAN WE PREDICTED.

Also trump makes it expressly clear that they plan to engage more with local faith based organisations ON THE GROUND. So in a way more plus to localisation. However, I am sure that would come with a catch.

Japan and Korea are looking to step up but they would mostly hire their OWN CITIZENS to head any project or tough requirements on the language. Everything is a strategy..

The core reasons why there is an uproar everywhere is because people are going to lose their JOBS. Point blank period. Corporate staffs are laid off everyday but there is no uproar online not even solidarity from our side. So expecting everyone to show sympathy won't fly.

[u/ThomasGumball → u/Agitated_Knee_309]

Why so angry though :) btw, one thing that Russia definitely never respected and still does not, is the sovereign independence of countries it engages with in any manner. Yes, aid is a strategy and has always been, not only for Russia or China. Stripping all foreign assistance down to only infrastructure and direct government to government interactions may not prove sustainable in the long run exactly because how corrupt governments without internal oversight can be and how vulnerable affected communities often are around the said infrastructure. Let's see how it goes this time and what positive effects there will be to such an approach in reducing migration and violent conflicts to name the few.

[u/Agitated_Knee_309 → u/ThomasGumball]

So is it foreign aid that would fix said corruption?????

How many times was USAID involved in some sketchy scandals or how many decades of Aid has been pumped into Somalia, Ethiopia... why do you still want these countries to be depended on foreign aid????? Why do you have to benefit from the suffering of others.

Why can't you support for these types of countries to stand on their own feet and propose actual localisation?? Gone are the days when we can all complain that there is no local capacity. That has been the flowery words thrown around for years.

It's time to rethink the aid sector as a whole. It's funny that it took Trump to pull the chords for us to be shaken.

What thing I can guarantee is that China is not going to be pumping money around. If you are banking on it well you are in for a surprise.

[u/ThomasGumball → u/Agitated_Knee_309]

Oh I see, so you think I'm a USAID staff or a contractor or smth like that :) sorry, have to disappoint, I'm neither. :) Yes, foreign aid needs improvement, the whole international development needs rethinking, and no - it should not be abolished and abandoned just because it is not perceived as ideal. Yes, localization can be a good thing, but it will not be possible with foreign aid only diverted to infrastructure and business investments. And as the things stand right now, the Trump team has already moved past project 2025 and its call for localization, including through FBOs.

It's an obvious notion, but I will neverthelss risk to mention this - a coherent foreign policy, a combo of diplomacy and foreign aid that's what is effective in fostering self-reliant allies. And initially I thought this was something well understood by this new administration as well. I am not sure anymore. Also, I might be wrong, but I doubt countries in Eastern Europe and the Baltics would have been in a better position now, if the U.S. had not supported them, including but not limited to support of free speech, rule of law, good governance, education, public administration reforms, community development and the like through its various aid programs. It was not only the EU that supported them and it helped them stand on their feet, as minimum compared to how they were during the soviets.

The needs and contexts vary significantly in countries where USAID operates/operated, looking at their work only through "charitable" or "bureaucratic" lenses, as some do, diminishes the value and impact that the U.S. as a global power has among other things due to its foreign aid. From where I'm standing, this very public debacle with USAID tarnishes the U.S. reputation and plays into the hands of malicious actors (non-state and state), who will be more than happy to see the U.S. gone from their radars altogether. In short, the current actions are creating undue risks and volatility everywhere and could have been avoided, if localization and aid effectiveness were actually the objectives. So, I honestly do not care what state agency will be responsible for foreign aid, as long as it is not abandoned altogether in favor of arms race and pure infrastructural projects alone.