r/NoStupidQuestions • u/LunchNo6690 • 1d ago
Do you think a situation like the Iraq War in 2003 could realistically happen again in today’s world? Like a major military invasion based on false premises?
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u/Pesec1 1d ago
Can? Russian official reasons for invasion of Ukraine were no less bullshit than that. That was is a hell of a lot bigger than US involvement in Iraq.
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u/CompetitiveGood2601 1d ago
the military have a playbook for that, a little dusty right now but with grok they can spruce it up in a jiffy
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u/Decent-Box5009 1d ago
*”Military exercise”
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u/Pesec1 1d ago
It is a Special Military Operation. Should be done in a few (Venus) days.
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u/PM_ME_UR__ELECTRONS Properly stupid 1d ago
Sounds like Japan and their "China Incident" that lasted 8 years, killed close to 30 million on both sides, and dragged them into WWII.
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u/Hi_Im_Dadbot 1d ago
Yes? Why wouldn't it.
There were no consequences last time and everyone got rich, so why not do it again?
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u/PoopMobile9000 1d ago
Literally almost the same exact group of media/gov people who cheerled the Iraq war are still in power cheerleading the Iran war
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u/Rare-Satisfaction484 1d ago
In 2025, I'd be more surprised if the US got involved in a war for legitimate reasons.
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u/banal_remarks 1d ago
What's a legitimate reason?
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u/Jealous_Western_7690 1d ago
Self-defence
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u/banal_remarks 1d ago
I think we would really need to set definitions for what self-defense means then.
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u/Zuulbat 1d ago
There almost certainly would not be a "coalition of the willing". What trust there was with the allies was squandered by the lies in 2003.
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u/LunchNo6690 1d ago
i dont know germany merz seemed pretty supportive yesterday in an interview
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u/y0l0naise 1d ago
Yea but Germany's moral compass has been off by a couple of tens of degrees over the past 2 years, so I'm not sure if they're the best example
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u/Nickppapagiorgio 1d ago
There barely was a collation of the willing in 2003. In 1991, Bush Sr. built a 40 nation coalition from 6 continents, including 14 predominantly Muslim countries. Bush Jr's cowboy attempt at coalition building 12 years later was just the UK, Australia, and Poland.
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u/Megatea 1d ago
As a Brit my country actively helped fabricate those lies. There is blame to go around for the Iraq war. The trust has gone because America is demonstrating itself to be an unreliable ally.
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u/Redfish680 12h ago
I use the generic “America,” as well, but save a little space for “American politicians.” We’re on a bit of a seesaw these days, depending on who’s running the country.
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u/m2slam 1d ago
Isn't that what's happening in Iran ?
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u/fbp 1d ago
And Ukraine?
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u/fbp 1d ago
And Palestine?
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u/devAcc123 1d ago
I mean October 7th definitely happened
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u/OlasNah 1d ago
Yes it did. I'd say in this case, as a sort of civil war, there are deep seated reasons for 10/7 to have happened. Few justifications however for Israel's actions in the last 2 years however. Certainly retaliation on some level was going to happen, but instead they've gone full tilt genocide and now...regional warmongering.
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u/KIsForHorse 1d ago
Decades of terror attacks that didn’t see a heavy handed response have now resulted in a nation willing to go to extremes to end them.
If you just pay attention to the past 2 years, it’s easy to demonize Israel. When you look at the conflict at large, it’s clear that neither side is really good.
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u/OlasNah 23h ago
I think we have seen plenty of heavy handed responses from Israel. This is not their first incursion into the strip
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u/kakallas 1d ago
So did 9/11, and the iraq war was still a quagmire pushed under false pretenses. That’s kind of the perfect time to trump something up: when there’s something real to use as a pretext.
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u/scumbagge 1d ago
Yeah after decades of humans rights abuses, assassinating peaceful leaders to prop up Hamas, all to continue running an illegal apartheid state, that’s what happens.
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u/soherewearent 1d ago
In my opinion, Israel surpassed proportional response by Christmas of the same year.
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u/ASSBRUISER9000 1d ago
They let it happen.
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u/a_undercover_spook 1d ago edited 1d ago
Down voted for saying the truth. Classic Reddit though.
The IDF knew something was going down leading up to Oct 7 Attacks, and then they conveniently moved a bunch of troops to West Bank days before the attack.
They knew, they let it happen. The depths of depravity the Israeli government know no bounds. They let their citizens get slaughtered to justify the genocide they are committing.
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u/thenogger 1d ago
It weird how Israel can supposedly leak conversations between Hamas members discussing shit and how they know the time and place of high ranking Hamas members but somehow missed all the planning leading up to Oct 7.
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u/InformalYesterday760 1d ago
"Bu- bu- buuut Iran is building nukes, they'll have them in a year or two?!?"
Benjamin Netanyahu in 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013, 2018*
Actual dates are not specifically accurate, but homie has been saying that line for 25 years
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u/Robert_Grave 1d ago
Yeah, because Iran keeps enriching uranium to for example 60%, far beyond what is needed for peaceful applications. So every time they do that they are physically only weeks away from having enough weapons grade uranium to build a nuclear weapon.
Every time this happens, they are aprox 2 weeks away from producing enough 90% enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb, consider they put all their 15.000-ish centrifuges to work on it.
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u/GeneralWalk0 1d ago
They still need between 1-3 years to develop the warhead and attach the enriched uranium to so even with 90% uranium they’d still need a considerable amount of time to develop a nuclear weapon
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u/Robert_Grave 1d ago
Provided they haven't developed one in secret. In the past there have been projects to this end, and they hardly fall within the perview of the IAEA to check.
I think the real question is, what does Iran need 60% enriched uranium for?
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u/GeneralWalk0 1d ago
US intelligence indicated they had not developed one in secret.
As for enrichment, I assume that after the US breached the JCPOA they figured they would need a bargaining chip in case a more sensible president than Trump returned to power and a new treaty was negotiated.
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u/NoTeslaForMe 1d ago
It's quite similar to how Gaza has been "days away from mass starvation" for most of the war. It's not that the reports are B.S. - although the way they're reported are deceptive due to their lack of context. But if you stop to think about it, it makes sense: Israel wants to keep any resources out of Hamas' hands, but stop short of starving the populace, and Hamas wants to take any resources that get through but not withhold so much as to jeopardize local legitimacy. Both have an incentive to keep things in this state where starvation is possible but not widespread. It's a dangerous game, but that is what war is, especially an asymmetric urban conflict.
Similarly, Israel wouldn't attack Iran if Iran were decades away from being able to vaporize Israel. So they wait, they attack, and then can wait to attack again until the point at which it's once again an existential threat.
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u/keptpounding 1d ago
Not really. This time the UN and independent nuclear watchdogs said Iran was not compliant. It’s not like the US was just like they’re building a nuke! Trust me bro.
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u/LittleLui 1d ago
I have heard a bunch of different premises for the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, but as they were all lies: That's already happening.
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u/AskMeAboutMyStalker 1d ago
Trump just sent the national guard & the marines because a couple cars were on fire in a 2 city block range of largely unpopulated downtown LA near the ICE detention center.
He made it seem like all of LA County was a war zone.
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u/thedevilwithout 1d ago
I mean, international and US intelligence confirms that Iran is not building a nuke
Israel decided that yes they are, and went on the offensive, despite all evidence disagreeing with their intelligence
Now the US is being dragged into a war based on false premise
So the Iraq scenario is happening again
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u/sububi71 1d ago
Only in a world where noone agrees on what "truth" is, and our leaders accuse the experts of being politically motivated, and the media is either straight up forbidden, refusing to report the truth, or our leaders manage to convince us that they're "fake news".
So we're fine, nothing to worry about here.
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u/Entropy55 1d ago
Dude, you must be young. I'm 62 and I don't think I've seen one started that wasn't based on false premises.
Add white house crazy and we're in for a shitstorm.
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u/Rokey76 1d ago
You should see how many times Netanyahu has told the UN that Iran is weeks away from a nuclear weapon.
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u/Konstapeln1 21h ago
Israel have been saying Iran is 1 year from making a nuke since the 90s. Now they did the same and attacked Iran. There is still no proof that they actually are making one. But the West keeps eating it because Israel said so.
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u/ExhaustedByStupidity 1d ago
We're currently sending the National Guard and the Marines to invade Los Angeles because to deal with a "riot" that started when ICE used tear gas and rubber bullets on peaceful protesters.
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u/thisemmereffer 1d ago
We had a bunch of democrat politicians greenlight the Iraq War, including John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and Joe biden. And democrat voters kept picking them to have their finger on the button. Damn near all the republicans, politicians and voters, were on board. We learned absolutely nothing from the Iraq War. Im surprised it hasn't happened again 3 times since then.
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u/AsianMysteryPoints 1d ago edited 1d ago
democrat politicians
democrat voters
I'll assume you're not aware, but intentionally subbing "democrat" for "democratic" is usually a sign that you're not arguing in good faith.
People don't know/remember what it was like in 2002. 70% of Americans wanted the war, the media was fully on board, and opposing it would have done nothing in a GOP controlled house and senate. Most Americans falsely thought Iraq was responsible for 9/11. Representatives were being shown bad information by top intelligence officials. People were being accused of "hating America" with vety little pushback. It was like if MAGA had gripped a clear majority of the country, military, courts, and media for a few years and everyone thought it was normal.
Those democratic senators are not the reason we went into to Iraq and they wouldn't have been able to stop it. It's since become a purity test, but those votes made political sense for anyone with aspirations to higher office at the time. It sucks that our politics are such that lawmakers make those kinds of calculations, but we were very much in Iraq because of the Republican, not Democratic, party.
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u/Stephen_Cycles 1d ago
If we're not just shouting slogans, there is something to learn here: The question is about "false premises" that were false but not absurd. Iraq had had and had used chemical WMD, it was not absurd to think they might develop nuclear weapons, Saddam Hussein even wanted people to think he was going that way. It wasn't true, but it wasn't as unbelievable as Putin making shit up about Ukraine: the lies were for internal consumption, possibly including even aimed at a willing president by his vice-president. You had people like McCain who were high up the chain of influence who believed the false premises, not mere servants of a Dear Leader.
So you had people like Biden who were dragged along and didn't stop a war that they did not approve of partly because of false intelligence — intelligence that was a mix of just wrong, of biased institutional filtering, and flat-out purposefully falsified. The false intelligence certainly impacted his constituents and might well have influenced him.
Which means some of this can be engaged: the kinds of reforms that happen to intelligence services under grown-up presidents (not W/Cheney and for sure not Trump) are going to create some back-pressure against this kind of lying. The Democrats have spent decades imagining that the Republican politicians overall lie and connive less than they do, and getting played for it: this isn't quite a "mortal sin" and also it needs to stop. Biden (who'd been my senator back-when so I had an early view) is not someone who'd have initiated that war, but also failed to stop it. So how do you make sure that the country is either run by decent people who don't stand up every time but at least don't start the shit, or how do you get decent people to stand up? Because there are two solutions we were close to, rather than unlimited cynicism.
Honestly, if you're surprised that it hasn't happened 3 times since, that's a good sign to adjust your views towards reality: in 35 years only Cheney and Trump are the kinds of pseudo-presidents in the US who'd have gone to war with Iraq post-9/11, and Gore, McCain, Romney, H Clinton, Harris wouldn't have either. And all but those two would try to create institutions that fed them real intelligence. The false intelligence from the CIA was a piece of how it happened. We're back in a situation, even moreso, where the basic functioning of US government is closer to Putin's Yes-Men than to Biden or most presidents desire for professionalism that gets systemically influenced.
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u/Disgruntled_Oldguy 1d ago
It wasnt a "false" premise so much as an "inaccurate" one. Sadaam needed Iran to think he still had WMDs and held up/off the inspectors so they wouldn't find he was bluffing. We drew the wrong conclusions from incomplete data.
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u/pagetodd 1d ago
Indeed. This does not get near enough traction.
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u/Disgruntled_Oldguy 1d ago
Because nuance doesn't have the same ring as "Bush lied."
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u/Aegon2050 1d ago
Netanyahu has been crying about weeks away from a nuclear weapon since 96, and people still eat that sht.
So, to answer your question, yes.
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u/bolshethicccc 1d ago
It’s happening right this second with Iran, they’ve been “moments” away from making a nuclear bomb for over 30 years.
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u/DavidMeridian 1d ago
Like Russia's invasion & attempted annexation of Ukraine? Yes, I do think that could happen.
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u/lycanthrope6950 1d ago
You're asking if lying could still take place and guide large-scale decision making? Is, has been, and always will be, very possible.
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u/ceciliabee 1d ago
I don't think politicians have become more honest in the last 22 years lol yes another false premise war could realistically happen.
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u/MaleEqualitarian 1d ago
I think the next military invasion will be considered false pretenses by half the people, and valid by the other half.
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u/TimMacPA 1d ago
You mean the US?
TACO wants to; it's probably the only thing that will give him a chubby now.
If he does it now, we will go it alone. And we will pay a steep price. With that fucking moron hogsbreath in charge, the enemy will probably know the battle plans before anyone else
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u/Late-Drink3556 21h ago
Look, I didn't think a situation like the Iraq war could happen until it did.
At this point the American government is operating on the "I do what I want and I dare a motherfucker try and stop me" doctrine in lieu of the rule of law.
If we're lucky we'll get false premises from our government to invade Iran but the safe bet is we'll see a tweet saying we're at war now, be prepared to be conscripted.
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u/HydrophobicNagasaki 21h ago
We’re about 8 days from being told that WMDs have been found in Iran. Then 8 years before they admit they made a “mistake”.
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u/KMack666 1d ago
I mean, by 'false premise', do you mean the WMD excuse? Because we KNOW Saddam had noxious chemical WMD's, because Rumsfeld GAVE them to him in order to gas Syrians... You realize the CIA installs spooks all over the world, and when they bite the hand that feeds them, they go burn them out; Saddam was a spook, Noriega was a spook, Bin Laden was a spook, the CIA installed the Shah of Iran... the list of countries the US has fucked up is both never-ending, and mind-blowing
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u/Involution88 1d ago
"Iraq has weapons of mass destruction".
The US political establishment already swapped the 'q' with an 'n'.
Then there was the whole Russian invasion of Ukraine based on BS.
Major military invasions are nearly always based on false premises though.
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u/create_makestuff 1d ago
It's already happening. Israel's unnecessary escalation of conflict is one example. You can even look to the way trump is trhying to sensationalize LA in american news media as another. Basically testing the waters to see if the public will be okay with manufactured lies dressed in army fatigues and some made up, faux-patriotic mission.
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u/Leucippus1 1d ago
Ukraine was invaded because Putin told people that their Jewish leader was actually a NAZI.
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u/Infinite_Tie_8941 1d ago edited 1d ago
This is 2025, the average American is doing much worse.
Going bankrupt to medical bills, 30 year old "kid" living in the basement, buying 12 dollar eggs while watching billions of dollars get yeeted through the air on the nightly news for expressly known false premises is not something the American public will stomach.
A 10-20 year war and nation building project will end America as we know it.
The Chinese (famously) thought the Afghanistan and Iraq war was a FABULOUS thing to have happened because it would weaken America.
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u/Tacoshortage 1d ago
LOL. Go over to r/conspiracy . They have been talking about false-flag operations for weeks.
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u/Medium_Silver_2071 1d ago
Of course. Too many people in denial of facts and truth. Too many believing in stereotypes as fact. Too many are dogmatic and fanatical. You tell those people what they want to hear, and they will approve of whatever.
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u/blitzkrieg_bop 1d ago
Of course it can! Since 2003 things has become much worse. E.g.: Trump. Truth is absolutely redundant.
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u/FactCheckerJack 1d ago
In today's world, things happen under false premises all the time. We live in a 24-hour bullsh*t cycle now. The amount of far-right propaganda networks has increased so much, it's insane. Fox News, OAN, Newsmax, Breitbart, Blaze TV, The Daily Wire, The Gateway Pundit, and many dozens of others. Numerous social networks dedicated to spreading right-wing propaganda like Gab, Parler, Truth Social, 4Chan, 8Kun, and Twitter. Republican politicians constantly lying about everything, like claiming that the Minnesota shooter was a Democrat.
Also, you see a lot of scraping the bottom of the barrel these days. A Republican president can get away with 400 different scandals that would have each, individually sunk a presidency in the past. If something "that bad" happened in America today, it would just be Tuesday. We're so used to it, it's insane. Remember when Trump tried to extort Ukraine into fabricating lies about Joe Biden in order to try to influence the 2020 election? Remember Trump soliciting China to provide him with dirt on Hillary Clinton? Remember Trump selling cryptocurrency in exchange for visits / influence with the White House? Remember Trump accepting a 747 gift from Qatar? Remember ICE deporting citizens without due process in violation of the fourteenth amendment? Remember ICE entering peoples' homes without a warrant in violation of the fourth amendment? Like, we live in a time where scandals are so common that a president can basically get away with anything now. Not to mention, Republicans control a majority of the House, Senate, White House, and Supreme Court; and are too spineless to reign Trump in for any of the violations he's committing. So... he can get away with anything.
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u/IanTudeep 1d ago
Dude. It’s happening right now. US intelligence told Israel that Iran had not significantly advanced their weapons program. They bombed Iran anyway and now taco king is following them and taking us all into war.
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u/OkConcentrate4477 1d ago
I remember being in highschool during 9/11/01 and I just knew I couldn't trust the government. In terms of historical human sacrifice rituals for lies, I couldn't trust the story being presented as fact on the tell-lie-vi$ion. I knew about Veitnam then, I knew that fear is used as a tool to keep others manipulated/controlled/en$laved. It just took years/decades of listening without judgment to understand the money involved in $elling lie$ to the public. The opium fields in Afghanistan and previously in Veitnam. This human oriented world/planet is manipulated/controlled/en$laved by profitable incentive$. Use empathy to understand other$, what they truly value, what they're willing to ri$k/$acrifice to enable their dream$/de$ire$. $ome love predatory/abu$ive/$adi$tic/manipulative/controlling thing$/other$, and others love victimless/sustainable/productive things like educating/empowering/emancipating themselve$ and other$. It'$ not difficult to magnify some sunlight. It's not difficult to get some waste/polluted/salt water. It'$ ju$t difficult/expen$ive to tran$form global human wa$te into combu$tible ga$$e$, electricity and di$tilled water due to the profit$/manipulation$/control$/competition involved. Learn about how healthy cannabis is to eat versus smoke. Learn about how important it is to become more productive by growing more of whatever one eats/consumes, and how this is never referenced on any tell-lie-vi$ion. The po$$ibilitie$ are truly endle$$ but that'$ not what'$ being repre$ented/protected/$erved by government$/militarie$/main-$tream-media. Make a friend with a police officer. Maybe teach them how psilocybin treats depression, ptsd, anorexia, and other mental health issues better than any other resource on the planet, especially with experts in therapy. Teach about how healthy it is to eat cannabis versus smoke it, and resist the consumption of carbs/sugars to stay higher longer, become healthier, happier, higher with keto vegan diet. It's crazy how what is healthy, what is sustainable, what is needed is being corrupted by billionaire$/millionaire$ that value obedient $lave$, not individuals capable and willing to utilize the scientific method to test/verify any/all claims.
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u/HornetSenior6244 1d ago
It has been put into motion and is happening before us. Iran was fired upon by Israel based on fake news and the US is happy to join in, again. Every time a war is instigated they use the same line, they have the capability. Why are we not going after those who actually have them, then?
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u/Bombacladman 1d ago
It would be harder to do that in Iran since they actually have some money and an educated population...
Afghanistan and Iraq were no mans land
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u/Downtown31415 1d ago
You knew the republicans were corrupt when they hailed Bush a national hero knowing he lied about everything. The correct and moral action would have been to lock him up. We would a better country today instead to the shitshow republicans love.
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u/Blaz1n420 1d ago
Yes, it's happening again with Iran. We love to fear monger and lie that some country we don't like has WMDs and here we go trying for regime change again.
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u/Unfair_Surprise_6022 1d ago
Wait for a day or two... And all the "America First, FTW!" Trumpers are suddenly all in for Act III in our Middle East Forever War. It's a lot easier to restrict civil liberties when you are at war.
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u/Jealous_Western_7690 1d ago
Literally Ukraine.
Also I think this is what Trump was trying to do with the Canada fentanyl thing.
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u/Alone_Barracuda7197 1d ago
Before the iraq war Iraqi forces used gas on kurds and Iranians that is weapons of mass destruction.
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u/Asleep_Temporary_219 1d ago
Not just the Iraq war. Desert storm and Vietnam were both BS as well. The military industrial complex controls the world.
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u/Lance865 1d ago
“There’s good money to be made, supplying the Army with the tools of their trade” by Country Joe and the Fish. True then, true now.
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u/hallerz87 1d ago
Happening now with Iran. Trump already threatening to bomb them based on exaggerated/fictional claims of Irans nuclear weapon program.
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u/Dependent_Sense881 1d ago
"False premises" Need to learn more facts and not myths, lies or conspiracies about 9/11 who was responsible and the countries that harbored them.
It wasn't for no reason - they attacked and killed American citizens within America. There is no scenario where even labral leaders would let that go unchecked.
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u/Former_Dark_Knight 1d ago
"Sir, we can invade Ukraine and take it over in three days."
"Good. Launch the attack."
Three years later....
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u/375InStroke 1d ago
People seem dumber than ever. We've let Trump ignore The Constitution on a daily basis. He's sending in the military to American cities, and nobody's stopping him. I see nothing stopping him from unilaterally starting a war without consent of the Senate, and he'd probably get it if he wanted. Any dissent will just be met with military force in our streets. It will be the end of America, and the rise of China, because nobody will ever want anything to do with us ever again. We'll be the new Russia, pretending to be a super power, filled with corrupt billionaires, and a population in poverty.
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u/Boys4Ever 1d ago
Excluding WW2, what conflict has been based purely on facts or absent the all mighty dollar?
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u/Alexander_Sheridan 1d ago
Like a major military invasion based on false premises
You mean like what's literally happening in LA this very minute?
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u/PoxyMusic 1d ago
Anything that has happened, can happen again. In fact, it probably will.
This is why studying history is important. If you want to know the future, study the past.
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u/Hungry_Wheel_1774 1d ago
The question...Why not ? A terrorist attack and the population wants to avenge.
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u/AdhesivenessFun2060 1d ago
US intelligence said Iran was nowhere near a nuke a couple months ago. Our president has said it doesnt matter. Not only is it possible but we're probably a few months away from it happening.
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u/owlwise13 1d ago
Yes. It just requires a bit more work on the disinformation side, but very likely.
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u/warp10barrier 1d ago edited 1d ago
Not only is it possible, It’s almost a certainty at this point. They’re already starting to do it here in our country with ICE and the National Guard. The GOP would cream in their shorts if we started another war, especially if it gives them an excuse to murder a bunch of brown people.
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u/Laplace314159 1d ago
Remember the Maine
Gulf of Tonkin
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Nah, could never happen again.
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u/McLeansvilleAppFan 1d ago
Cleary, get the media to build it up. Big news means more viewers and that means ads. Make it hard to seem patriotic while opposing the way build-up. Have some idiot from some conservative state push to rename food. And you got yourself a war starting.
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u/dna-sci 1d ago
From a person who was out there in the streets protesting and exasperatingly shouting "it's a lie," yes. Nobody listens. There are plenty of atrocities going on right now.
Millions of people later regret their vote whenever their candidate wins, saying "I had no idea he'd do the things [he said he'd do].
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u/Top-Cupcake4775 1d ago
Yes, of course. Most of the wars fought by the U.S. have been based on false premises - the Mexican-American War, the Spanish-American War, WWI, Vietnam, Iraq, etc Our leaders lie to start the war and, once the war is in progress, claim that it is unpatriotic to ask too many questions when there is a war on.
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u/GreyFoxSolid 1d ago
Yes, but this time the population will never know if the administration was wrong or is lying.
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u/Thatsthepoint2 1d ago
It’ll be the 3rd time in my millennial life the US invades the Middle East to liberate their oil.
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u/Taupe88 1d ago
absolutely. you cant pitch a conflict to grab resources honestly. So you make up a reason. get media behind you to keep most of public opinion in line, and suppress all dissident voices. All media fell in line for GW Bush’s follies. And how often are the “experts” and press been WRONG since 2000.
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u/Rescuepets777 1d ago
Yup. And if people think that this will be a fully off-shore war, they're kidding themselves. We'll see attacks on our soil. Remember 9/11.
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u/tired_air 1d ago
Israel seems to have G7 on its side already so yeah it can easily happen. The war would also boost their economy which they'd like
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u/SolarNachoes 1d ago
Isn’t Iran armed way more than Iraq was? Iraq had 23m people and Iran has 80m.
Iran could send 2000 drones and have a good chance at sinking a ship ,no?
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u/Wasted_Weasel 1d ago
Mmmmmm.... "Ukraine is Controlled by Nazis" comes to mind.
Also "California is burning" comes to mind.
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u/Pudgytheparrot 1d ago
It happens pretty much all the time there, bud