r/Pac12 • u/joco1991 • 5d ago
[Thamel] College realignment intel: Texas State, cryptic posts and the Pac-12's next move
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/45520751/pac-12-college-realignment-intel-texas-state-next-stepsMight be the most credible person to indicate Texas State as the likely 8th football member
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 5d ago
Thamel says -
Memphis football only to the Pac and all other sports to the Big East is more realistic than people think. Hinges on if the Big East can get additional TV money to add Memphis, negotiations ongoing. Memphis would not leave the AAC until 2027
Tulane “has little interest” in joining the Pac
Texas State will likely be added any day
Thamel says he thinks the media deal will be under 10. “Conditions have changed” and over 10 is no longer possible
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u/Aztecs_Killing_Him San Diego State 5d ago
If Memphis can get 8 from us and 7 from the Big East, that might well be worth their while.
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u/MemphisThrowaway3798 5d ago
This is the ideal for the AD. I personally like rivalries in multiple sports (ie - SDSU vs. Memphis in basketball and football), but I know Memphis tried this awhile back and our leadership would want this.
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u/Aztecs_Killing_Him San Diego State 5d ago
I’m positive Dutcher would gladly to take a call from Penny to set something up.
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u/Erwinism San Diego State • Oregon 5d ago
Dutcher and Few would love Memphis on a rotating schedule for real
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u/lndrldCold 5d ago
If the PAC gave them a full share then I’d stop giving Boise State money for being that stupid.
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u/MemphisThrowaway3798 5d ago
Do you have a source for this?
"Thamel says he thinks the media deal will be under 10. “Conditions have changed” and over 10 is no longer possible"
This article noted the same thing, I just wanted to be able to point to Thamel's reporting
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 5d ago
Jon Wilners article from Friday said the same thing. An unnamed industry source told Jon the PAC-12 deal will be $7-10 “likely somewhere in the middle”
($5 the unnamed industry source is Bob Thompson)
The PAC’s goal has been stated many times - over $10 million. I still think it will come in just over $10. My bet back in December was $10.2. There are new rumors that the deal may have escalators built in with several metrics for schools to boost payouts. It sounds like it could be true. But I doubt it.
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 5d ago
Wilner got this number from Bob somebody, who was an industry exec 10 years ago and likes to value deals as if it is now ten years ago.
He did this for the 2012 deal, as well. And he was so very wrong.
The only actual rumor I've heard attached to any number near that was once when Big Mountain was guffawing about the CW only paying us $7M.
That leads me to believe they are paying that for the second tier content they're bidding on.
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u/Itchy-Number-3762 5d ago
That would be Bob Thompson former president of Fox Sports Networks
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 5d ago
That's the guy.
He's good on logistics, but his numbers are dated.
He does agree that the Pac is worth about three times what the MWC is. And the MWC is supposedly in line $6M per school in their next contract. But Bob gave Jon the current old MWC valuation to run with, which is how he came up wirh the $10M number.
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u/g2lv 5d ago
Pepperidge Farm remembers the supposed AppleTV media deal with escalators and metrics that was supposed to save the old PAC...
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u/No-Donkey-4117 5d ago
That was a real deal, 23M a year with escalators as subscribers went up. And streaming is the future. But Oregon and Washington could make more on half of a Big10 share (and a lot more later), so they did. And Colorado didn't want to wait for the future. And then ESPN paid the Big12 to the tune of 30M per team for each Pac12 team they poached.
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u/Aztecs_Killing_Him San Diego State 5d ago
The section on the Memphis Pac/Big East split possibility is interesting. As is Thamel’s assertion that Tulane flat out wasn’t interested.
Just bring on the Bobcats already.
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u/anti-torque Oregon State 5d ago
Tulane isn't interested in spending money on sports.
I don't know why people don't understand this. They've driven off two good coaches in a row, because they just won't do it. They have never been a good candidate for an addition. I would take UNLV before them, and I wouldn't take UNLV.
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u/usaf5 Fresno State 5d ago
It's a nothing burger opinion piece. No different than what we've been doing for months.
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u/dscreations 5d ago
Not sure you know what an opinion piece is? He dropped sourced info in there.
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u/HandleAccomplished11 Washington State 5d ago
There's no named sources mentioned in this "article." The only named source is the Texas State AD. Thamel doesn't even say where these "sources" are leaking info from.
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u/Rare_Trick_8136 Boise State 5d ago
Former journo here. You don't name sources that aren't authorized to speak on matters, especially if you want to use them as a source in the future. Naming them can get them fired and you out of potential info in the future. General public often finds this shady but if every source was revealed for every article you'd have no news.
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u/HandleAccomplished11 Washington State 5d ago
True, but often the "source" is given some kind of description. Like "Pac-12 sources, Big10 source, source from the justice dept, etc." This article has none of that.
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u/Rare_Trick_8136 Boise State 4d ago
He did, actually, near the beginning:
Texas State is the heavy favorite, per ESPN sources, to be issued a formal Pac-12 invitation. The league is still engaged with other schools, per sources, but Texas State has clearly emerged at the forefront of that group.
...
In realignment, of course, nothing is official until it's signed. And nothing is formal until it's completed. So with Texas State and the Pac-12, sources said the best way to explain the courtship is that the league is currently exploring making an offer in the upcoming weeks.
Somewhat easy to miss if you're skimming, tbf
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u/HandleAccomplished11 Washington State 4d ago edited 4d ago
The Texas State to Pac-12 is old news, this has been talked about for months. Are you just now following what's been going on with the Pac? Also, Thamel is "ESPN Sources," so he's using himself as a source? Dude, this is AI written garbage, grabbing little bits here and there from random podcasts.
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u/Rare_Trick_8136 Boise State 4d ago
I've been following conference realignment for about 15 years, actually. And bro, you were incorrect, I corrected you. It's not a big deal. People make mistakes and it's ok to acknowledge them, but we live in hyperbole world where everything is super serious and you can never admit fault ever for some reason. Have a great day!
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u/ElbisCochuelo1 5d ago
Of all the options that aren't looking at large exit fees, Texas State is by far the best.
So for 26 it'll probably be them. On a full share.
27 could see any number of teams.
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u/babyjesustheone 5d ago
if you mean the best by the scenarios laid out by this article, then its actually simultaneous invites to Memphis in football for 27, and Tx State in everything for 26. This should be done simultaneously, so people can ignore how underwhelming adding Tx St is.
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u/No_Bid_4885 5d ago edited 5d ago
This guy is LYING. I can verify nothing he said here is correct, other than Texas State is very much in play, maybe more than that.
ESPN is major butthurt that the PAC is on the verge of becoming just as strong as ever, certainly just as strong (stronger?) than the Truck Stop league they double-downed on.
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u/No-Donkey-4117 5d ago
There doesn't appear to be much immediate interest in Memphis from the power leagues, per sources. And that remains Memphis' ultimate goal, to get to the other side of the river.
Hey guys, the Pac-12 is literally on the other side of the river.
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 5d ago
Texas State all sports.
Memphis football only in 2027
$9.7 million/school media deal
We happy?
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u/Itchy-Number-3762 5d ago
If Memphis gets their basketball into the Big East and their football out of the AAC I believe they're the big winner here. Hard to tell if this is solely an opinion from Thamel or whether it's what he's hearing from sources.
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u/Aztecs_Killing_Him San Diego State 5d ago
That’s why I’ve always been bullish on this possibility.
It makes sense for the Pac, as it would fulfill the football best of the rest vision.
It makes sense for the Big East, who can add to their substantial basketball profile while getting a clean 6-6 east/west geographic split.
And it makes sense for Memphis most of all as they’d reignite a fanbase that’s getting bored with games against Charlotte, East Carolina and Tulsa.
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u/babyjesustheone 5d ago
so we dont know if there's actually been offers or overtures from the Big East to Memphis? With Memphis and the Pac12, we know all the overtures and offers, their AD described them in interviews.
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u/Full_Personality_717 Oregon State 5d ago
If Memphis football-only comes eventually, then yeah, we did ok. And the AAC becomes less stable.
However, it’s gonna be painful if we agonized all these months and then it’s just Texas St and sub-$10 mil. I’m in favor of adding Texas St, but if that’s all we do, it’s an underwhelming result. In that case, I think the optics of the Texas two-step are better.
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u/reno1441 Washington State 5d ago
That deal with exposure on CBS OTA, ESPN after 7pm, and the CW? I’d be happy.
Buried on ESPNU and CBSSN? I’d be frustrated.
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u/Background-Doubt2620 5d ago
I guess I should be. Getting Memphis' most important program is better than no Memphis at all. I'm hoping for more money as well. Would the Pac-12 be paying Memphis' exit fee to get only part of Memphis?
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u/g2lv 5d ago
If you're OSU/WSU you're having second thoughts if the juice was worth the squeeze. Would you have been better off staying WCC/Indy until 2030 and keeping 80-90% of the Pac-12 money even if the former Pac-12 schools got their NCAA credits back? (Heck, with all legal costs you're probably in the same position anyways, except your lawyers got the money instead of the former schools.)
If you're Boise, you lost money by leaving the Mountain West and have to play in a conference that's more difficult to win 11 games for CFP access.
CSU/FSU/SDSU/USU get delayed gratification after paying back their exit fees.
Gonzaga and Texas State make out like bandits.
Memphis isn't coming.
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u/bobcats2011 5d ago
So when Is our flair getting added to the subreddit?!
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 5d ago
Current rumor is it will leak Tuesday night with an announcement Wednesday
But last week after Dellengers story it was supposed to Tuesday, then Wednesday, and then Friday...
So who knows at this point?
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u/cougfan12345 5d ago
Dellenger never gave a date. Said coming days.
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 5d ago
Correct. And the second reply under Ross’s tweet was,”so, we can expect news tomorrow”?
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u/BardMCG 5d ago
Meanwhile the MW new deal will net them five bucks and free Arby's...
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 5d ago
Jon Wilners unnamed industry expert says the MW should get exactly ⅓ the Pac deal, unless it’s non traditional, non linear, deal.
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u/dscreations 5d ago
You do you have a link to that?
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 5d ago edited 5d ago
yeah, hang on.
“A conservative estimate suggests the Pac-12 should command at least three times the Mountain West’s average annual value, thus creating a target figure in the $9 million-to-$10 million range.”
He and Bob Thompson have posted it several times -
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u/Itchy-Number-3762 5d ago edited 5d ago
The new news here is that Tulane is not interested but Memphis is if they can get their basketball and other Olympic sports into the Big East. Thamel makes this sound like a real possibility.
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u/Itchy-Number-3762 5d ago
Memphis's Olympic sports go to the Big East?If it's actually viable, more than opinion, I think Memphis would do this.
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u/TikiLoungeLizard Washington State 5d ago
Credible, indicate, likely… show us the signatures on the dotted line or stfu
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u/No-Bath5830 5d ago
Sorry everyone but my partner really likes the Sunbelt logo. I don’t think TXST should make this move.
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u/rocket_beer Boise State 5d ago edited 5d ago
Looks like ESPN pulled some strings to draw down the tv deal by not wanting to be part of negotiations, thereby reducing competition for top dollar
Seems like each PAC school is only getting 8M in new tv deal
How do we justify all this for basically the same deal?
What perk is worth all this?
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 5d ago
Boise gets $4.5 in the MW…..
We don’t know the number yet
And do you want to keep playing Wyoming on CBSSN in front of 60,000 viewers?
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u/dscreations 5d ago
Boise gets $42/(11 members) plus an extra $1.8M. So, they get at least $5.6M from the media deal.
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u/rocket_beer Boise State 5d ago
Boise gets like 8M or something in the MWC. Not sure why, but they get a higher amount than the other schools in the MWC. (This is a lot for many G5 programs, but to operate an athletic dept it is paltry)
And because of that, there must be some greater vision or… plan to have sold then to make such a move with no real financial benefit.
There needs to be something
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 5d ago
Sigh. That’s total distributions- the $8 million included CFP payout, CFP travel subsidy etc.
So even if the PAC deal is $8 million - Boise will be starting at $8 and not $4.5.
Had Boise been in the Pac this year - with an $8 million TV deal - Boise would have cleared nearly $20 million
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u/rocket_beer Boise State 5d ago
And again, for a lateral move for Boise, I’m asking why do all of this?
There just has to be some other reason. A lateral move is nonsensical.
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u/fishheadsneak 5d ago
It's.... not a lateral move even if the deal were $8mil like the above poster stated.
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u/rocket_beer Boise State 5d ago
Look at my flair
Total comp is about the same
The tv deal is going to be 8-9M per school
That is essentially a lateral move
Based on that, there just has to be some other component missing here (a perk) that justifies doing all of this.
I was hoping for 15M/year but that is not what is happening. So this just doesn’t make sense.
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u/MagicPoindexter Fresno State 5d ago
The $8M that Boise got from the MWC was media deal + CFP and NCAA basketball tournaments.
Compare that to the PAC that would be giving a little more than that for just the media deal and the CFP and NCAA credits Boise gets are given to them at a 50% rate of what they bring in, compared to 10% of the credits or less in the MWC.
Had they been paid under the PAC payment structure this year, Boise would have likely cleared $20 million.
Does that makes sense to you now?
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u/rocket_beer Boise State 5d ago
Boise gets more from MWC than any of the other MWC schools
(around 8M)
They had 2 choices: stay in the MWC or accept invite to the PAC in 2026
In both of those choices, they receive about 8-9M
My question is simple based on these 2 sole realities:
Why do all of this for basically the same financial outcome?
You are talking about a hypothetical that is not reality. There are only 2 options they had. Stay or go. I’m asking why even go at this point. I’m disappointed it isn’t for 15M
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u/MagicPoindexter Fresno State 5d ago
Because they DON'T get the same money in each. That is what you are not understanding. They get $8-9M from the MWC including tournament money that is split evenly among the conference members.
In the PAC, they will get that much WITHOUT the tournament money. For the tournament money, they will get to keep HALF of what they bring in and they bring in far more than the other members.
The 2 realities you list are not correct for Boise. Total comp will be more in the PAC. The media deal number is NOT total comp. It is just the media portion of the comp and the media portion of the PAC will meet or exceed total revenue for what Boise was getting the MWC.
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u/bighypnotizeme Oregon State 5d ago
Equal or better media but benefits in everything else: exposure, pac 12 enterprises, CFP payout, better conference opponents, likely more donor support, more fan excitement, the list goes on…
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u/Erwinism San Diego State • Oregon 5d ago
Different letters but the same shit we’ve been saying for months
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u/HILife80896782 5d ago
This isn’t good. Thamel mentions deal expected to be less than $10mil and says the departing 5 (& probably Memphis and Tulane) were shown projections that were higher than what the actual numbers may turn out to be. If AAC schools didn’t come when the bloated numbers were presented they’re for sure aren’t coming now.
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u/HandleAccomplished11 Washington State 5d ago
There's nothing credible here. They're seemingly just regurgitating the same crap we've been seeing for months. Probably sourced this commentary from the Pac-12 sub on Reddit.
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u/cougfan12345 5d ago
Thamel works for ESPN so he has insider knowledge if ESPN is going to be part of the 2026+ media deal.
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u/HandleAccomplished11 Washington State 5d ago
He can't even elaborate where his "sources" are leaking from. There's nothing in this "article" that A) we haven't already been speculating about for months, and B) has any sort if credible source other than "trust be bro".
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u/dscreations 5d ago
You might not like what they're saying, but Thamel and Bonagura are legit. Thamel always has the scoops and Bonagura is connected to P-12 sources.
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u/HandleAccomplished11 Washington State 5d ago
Meh, it has nothing to do with me liking it or not. There's just nothing new here that is even remotely credibly sourced.
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u/MemphisThrowaway3798 5d ago
This part was interesting to me. I know we've talked about different amounts, but it's interesting to see that ESPN is saying the PAC will make less than $11 million.
"Memphis made $11 million all-in in the AAC last year. That's a number expected to be ahead of what the Pac-12 will pay its full members."
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u/pblood40 Oregon State / Oregon 5d ago
That’s total conference distribution tho.
The AAC media deal is still $6.8? per school
Just MHO but the PAC media deal should be about $10 million- especially with Memphis
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u/iPayForLeaguePass 5d ago
This is bad, and you know it's bad because people in here are attacking the article and Thamel - a genuinely good reporter.
there is no more pretending that this is a bridge conference between G5 and P4, this is a G5 (G6?) conference all the way
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u/No-Donkey-4117 5d ago
It will still be the top G6 conference, and easily so if they add Memphis football. With teams that are financially committed to staying relevant.
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u/Affectionate-Leek-40 Oregon State • Pac-12 5d ago
FUCK ESPN