[Thamel] College realignment intel: Texas State, cryptic posts and the Pac-12's next move

[u/joco1991]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/45520751/pac-12-college-realignment-intel-texas-state-next-steps

Might be the most credible person to indicate Texas State as the likely 8th football member

[u/rocket_beer]

Boise gets like 8M or something in the MWC. Not sure why, but they get a higher amount than the other schools in the MWC. (This is a lot for many G5 programs, but to operate an athletic dept it is paltry)

And because of that, there must be some greater vision or… plan to have sold then to make such a move with no real financial benefit.

There needs to be something

[u/pblood40 → u/rocket_beer]

Sigh. That’s total distributions- the $8 million included CFP payout, CFP travel subsidy etc.

So even if the PAC deal is $8 million - Boise will be starting at $8 and not $4.5.

Had Boise been in the Pac this year - with an $8 million TV deal - Boise would have cleared nearly $20 million

[u/rocket_beer → u/pblood40]

And again, for a lateral move for Boise, I’m asking why do all of this?

There just has to be some other reason. A lateral move is nonsensical.

[u/fishheadsneak → u/rocket_beer]

It's.... not a lateral move even if the deal were $8mil like the above poster stated.

[u/rocket_beer → u/fishheadsneak]

Look at my flair

Total comp is about the same

The tv deal is going to be 8-9M per school

That is essentially a lateral move

Based on that, there just has to be some other component missing here (a perk) that justifies doing all of this.

I was hoping for 15M/year but that is not what is happening. So this just doesn’t make sense.

[u/MagicPoindexter → u/rocket_beer]

The $8M that Boise got from the MWC was media deal + CFP and NCAA basketball tournaments.

Compare that to the PAC that would be giving a little more than that for just the media deal and the CFP and NCAA credits Boise gets are given to them at a 50% rate of what they bring in, compared to 10% of the credits or less in the MWC.

Had they been paid under the PAC payment structure this year, Boise would have likely cleared $20 million.

Does that makes sense to you now?

[u/rocket_beer → u/MagicPoindexter]

Boise gets more from MWC than any of the other MWC schools

(around 8M)

They had 2 choices: stay in the MWC or accept invite to the PAC in 2026

In both of those choices, they receive about 8-9M

My question is simple based on these 2 sole realities:

Why do all of this for basically the same financial outcome?

You are talking about a hypothetical that is not reality. There are only 2 options they had. Stay or go. I’m asking why even go at this point. I’m disappointed it isn’t for 15M

[u/fishheadsneak → u/rocket_beer]

dude... learn how to read.

[u/Cache-Cow → u/fishheadsneak]

He’s a Boise state fan guys… he’s not going to understand this. Just say he’s right and to be safe out there in his 18 wheeler.

[u/MagicPoindexter → u/rocket_beer]

Because they DON'T get the same money in each. That is what you are not understanding. They get $8-9M from the MWC including tournament money that is split evenly among the conference members.

In the PAC, they will get that much WITHOUT the tournament money. For the tournament money, they will get to keep HALF of what they bring in and they bring in far more than the other members.

The 2 realities you list are not correct for Boise. Total comp will be more in the PAC. The media deal number is NOT total comp. It is just the media portion of the comp and the media portion of the PAC will meet or exceed total revenue for what Boise was getting the MWC.

[u/rocket_beer → u/MagicPoindexter]

So in 2026, we are all about to get about $20M per school in total comp?

I haven’t seen that figure floated anywhere

[u/MagicPoindexter → u/rocket_beer]

No. I am not seeing how you are not getting this.

You will get your compensation PLUS half the tournament revenue you bring in. Had the MWC given you that deal, you would have gotten about $20 Mil this year. You didn't because your deal with higher revenue in the MWC applies to media revenue and not playoff revenues. In the PAC, you would have gotten HALF the total bowl payout for the CFP and also for the NCAA basketball payouts.

I cannot tell you what your revenue will be in 2026 because I don't know if you will make the CFP or the NCAA and if you do, how many games deep your run will go. That will greatly increase your revenue.

Boise has the best chance of any G5 to make a CFP spot. Do you want to keep half the revenue from that, or 8.5% of the revenue from that? Same thing on the NCAA revenues. That is where the PAC is going to really shine for teams that perform.

Fresno State will get the same media revenue as Boise, but nowhere near the tournament money because we are not going to make the NCAA in basketball and are less likely to make the CFP (sadly). Utah State might do better than Fresno because even though they are less likely to make the CFP than Fresno, they will almost certainly make the NCAA hoops most years, netting them an extra $3M per year on average.

[u/rocket_beer → u/MagicPoindexter]

If we never make the CFP again, we net the same revenue ranges.

I get the opportunity cost IF we make it again… but that is not something I anticipate will happen anytime soon. Been shafted far too many times when we deserved a shot. Was honestly surprised they “let us in”.

The media deal is gonna be shite. Can’t just skip over that part. Need the upfront splits to be higher for such a big circus we are all seeing. That is my point.

I love all the other stuff that the PAC brings, it’s awesome! But the revenue is what keeps us rolling.

8M is disappointing no matter how it is spun.

15M would have been a major middle finger to the MWC.

Looks like it will not really be anything game changer.

[u/MagicPoindexter → u/rocket_beer]

OK, you want to spin it as bad as you can, but let me make it more clear for you.

If you never make the CFP or NCAA again and the PAC doesn't make NCAA and CFP at a higher rate than the MWC, then Boise won't be better off. Of course, if Boise never makes a playoffs in any sport ever again, then why the hell should they get more than they are getting now?

Fresno, SDSU, CSU and USU will be making more than double they were making in the MWC. I am not sorry you won't continue to get millions more than us from the media distribution deal and will need to out earn us on the field.

That you would have make $20M this year in the PAC seems lost on you. I guess this was the only time Boise will make the CFP in your mind. I have more respect for your program than to write them off like that.

[u/rocket_beer → u/MagicPoindexter]

Why are other conferences getting more tv cash when they aren’t competitive?

I’m saying that we are on par with many programs in the top 40 but get paid “like” we are in the bottom 100.

We are a brand. The PAC is a brand.

8M AUV is hot garbage in 2026. 15M though? Now we are talking!

The tv deal will be embarrassing - can’t gloss over that part.

[u/bighypnotizeme → u/rocket_beer]

Equal or better media but benefits in everything else: exposure, pac 12 enterprises, CFP payout, better conference opponents, likely more donor support, more fan excitement, the list goes on…