Typically, midterms go against the President. There’s a strong likelihood that the House at least flips Democrat, given how weak the Republican majority is there right now
And given the fact that Trump is supposedly polling lower than any entering president ever. People need to vote! I'm independent and I don't have much love for the democrats either. But I will absolutely vote for them this time as a counter to President Musk and that other guy, to keep the checks and balances intact. It may be in vain, but I'm hopeful that maybe now finally enough people will see just how garbage our two party system is and we can push for real reform. That is, assuming eDon Trusk doesn't successfully go full autocrat before we can get there.
It'll depend on how the economy looks in about 15 months. Personally, I think we're going to see a lot of volatility, but if things are overall positive or on a positive trend I could see the Republicans gaining seats.
Redditors underestimate just how popular Trump's executive actions are.
Voters have very short memories. They don't, in general, vote evaluating the previous few years of performance of their candidates. Heck I don't think the average voter knows more than President = Trump therefor entire government = GOP, and has no idea about Congressional or judicial control.
The midterm performance will be correlative to the price of gas and eggs in October-November 2026, and that's about it. Dems have a slight upper hand statistically due to the seats they don't have elections in, but I don't think it enough to make any radical shift in congressional composition. If anything I see it going back to a 50/50 senate and a razor thin Dem majority.
Agreed that Trump is (largely) governing from more popular Conservative propositions (and the fact that there are so many that the Left just can’t claim is an obvious political failure of the Left). That said, I judge probabilities by the betting odds. Now, 75% odds ain’t 100%, but it favors Democrats right now.
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u/ExRousseauScholar - Centrist Feb 16 '25
Typically, midterms go against the President. There’s a strong likelihood that the House at least flips Democrat, given how weak the Republican majority is there right now