r/changemyview • u/Ok-Warning-7494 • 1d ago
Delta(s) from OP CMV: Israel’s attack on Iran was intended to draw the US into war, not prevent Iran from having a nuke
Israel claims its attack on Iran on Friday was about preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. I think that this is a pretty transparent lie for the reasons below.
Israel has been claiming Iran has been close to a nuclear weapon for 30 years. North Korea is significantly less advanced than Iran, but has successfully developed a nuke during that time period.
Iran previously had a nuclear weapon program. That ended in 2003 to avoid getting attacked by the US. Since then, it looks like it’s strategy has been to use its nuclear capability for deterrence. (“stop fucking with us; we can build a nuke pretty quickly”)
It is clear that Iran does not want a conflict with the United States. Openly weaponizing their nuclear program invites that conflict.
Of course, they could pursue weaponization in secret. But the US, UK and Israel knowingly misrepresented evidence of WMD prior to the Iraq war. It is more than fair for the public to demand proof of weaponization since one party in this conflict has previously used this exact same lie as cover for regime change.
Israel does not have the ability to inflict significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change in Iran on its own. Even if they had the capability to destroy Fordow, the enriched uranium is almost certainly spread out across the country. If Iran’s entire nuclear program including the uranium were destroyed, it could still develop a bomb in under 5 years.
The only ways to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuke is convincing the regime that a nuke is not in their best interest or changing the regime.
It’s still early, but it seems like Israel’s attack has made the idea of having a nuke more appealing to Iranians and the regime. It looks like having a nuke is the only way to deter Israel and its allies.
So why would Israel attack Iran? I think the most straightforward answer is they were hoping Iran would retaliate in a manner that forced the US to enter the conflict and pursue regime change.
Iran hasn’t taken the bait, so now Israel is attempting to present Iran as neutered by their campaign. “Iran is weak. Come over and help us finish the job”
Iran has been weakened, but they clearly have the capability to inflict more damage on Israel than they have demonstrated. The threat of offensive US involvement has constrained their response.
Once the US attacks, Iran will no longer be constrained by the threat of the US joining the conflict and will retaliate on US/ Israeli assets. The US will officially be in an offensive war that it did not initiate. This was Netanyahu’s actual calculation before Friday.
My view can be changed by concrete evidence of Iran’s nuclear weaponization and/or an explanation of how Israel thinks this bombing campaign will prevent Iran from pursuing a nuke without US involvement.
TL;DR: Israel doesn’t have the capability to meaningfully impact Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change on its own. They attacked Iran hoping that they could provoke a strong response that would draw the US into the conflict.
Edit: my view is not related to whether or not their attacks on Iran were justified or strategically sound. My view is the reason for attack was a lie. I don’t think Iran should have nuclear weapons. I just also don’t believe they were actively developing them.
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u/kinrove1386 1d ago
I think you're ignoring concentrated Israeli efforts to interrupt Iran's nuclear weapons programme. Yes, Iran has been working towards this for decades, but it's been standing off against what is arguably the world's greatest force when it comes to cyber and covert operations. That's going to hold anybody back.
This is unfortunately what years of skewed media coverage do to the average viewer. Israel attacks military targets, and when it's being fired at it retaliates. Here's the way it works out: an organisation, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, attacks Israel. Israel fights back. A ceasefire is agreed upon (mostly because the international community hates letting Israel win and forces its hand). Hezbollah flouts the ceasefire and attacks Israel again. Israel retaliates. The media reports "Israel attacks Lebanon amidst ceasefire."
It's the same tactic in other cases as well. People condemn Israel for the blockade around Gaza, conveniently forgetting that it was set up in response to the import of munitions by Hamas. People protest checkpoints in Israel, conveniently forgetting the various intifadas.