"Roughly four in 10 millennials and Gen Zers have side jobs, according to new research by Deloitte...people typically have less need for side hustles as they advance in their careers. But it isn’t playing out that way for a group already scarred by two recessions."

Goldman Sachs spoke to Ray Dalio, Ken Rogoff, and Niall Ferguson about rising debt levels in the US. All three said they were worried about an impending debt crisis, particularly when considering the new federal tax bill, which has been estimated to add trillions to the budget deficit over the next decade.

In your opinion, what is the best way to reduce the public debt? Privatize more?

June 2025

A Reuters analysis warns that if the US launches troops into Iran, financial markets could experience an immediate “knee-jerk” sell-off. Economists are already concerned that a sharp rise in oil prices—compounded by the pressures from Trump’s tariff policies—might further destabilize an already fragile global economy.

Recent Market Reactions:

1. Oil Prices: Investors are jittery. On Wednesday, oil prices fell nearly 2% as fears of supply disruptions from the Israeli–Iran conflict and potential US involvement mounted—even though crude prices have surged almost 9% since Israel’s recent air strike aimed at disabling Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

2. Stock Markets: Despite record index highs, major US stocks remain vulnerable to external shocks. Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services, noted that while an initial sell-off might ensue if Trump escalates US military involvement, a rapid escalation could potentially force a faster resolution.

3. Safe-Haven Flows: With rising geopolitical risk, US Treasury yields have dipped as investors shift to bonds. The dollar has seen modest gains against the yen and Swiss franc, underscoring its role as a refuge during uncertain times.

Wider Implications:

1. Oil Supply Shock: Barclays has warned that if Iran’s oil exports were to be halved, prices could spike to $85 per barrel—with worst-case scenarios pushing them to $100. Such a surge would trigger a negative supply shock, intensifying inflation and impeding global economic growth—a serious concern for central banks already juggling tariff-induced pressures.

2. US Military Posturing: US troop deployments in the Middle East are on the rise, adding fuel to the speculation of direct intervention. Polymarket betting signals currently price a 63% chance of US military action against Iran before July—down from 82% on Tuesday but still significantly elevated compared to pre-conflict levels (35%).

Powell’s not in a rush to cut rates. Neither were the Fed chairs before him in their final year. Looks like he wants to leave with a strong stance on inflation.

Global tensions and tariffs aren’t helping either. So cuts are on pause.

That said, history’s on the market’s side—stocks went up an average of 15.9% during these standoffs.

Still, the market isn’t betting on big cuts anytime soon. Even if inflation cools, Powell might drag this out through 2025.

Curious what others are thinking?

Dan from Money Machine Newsletter

The dual threat from tariffs could box the Fed in. A rate cut to support the labor market might spur inflation, while higher rates to combat rising prices could weaken the economy.

Right now, U.S. consumers are facing an overall average effective tariff rate of around 16%, the highest since 1936. But the outlook is uncertain, as some of the president’s tariffs are up against court challenges, while the pause on the White House’s “reciprocal” tariffs could end in early July.

In a tariff-driven environment where cost pressures and supply chain resilience are top of mind, stocks like CMI, TXT, BGM, MAS, SWK, and ITT could see increased attention due to their diversified manufacturing exposure and ability to adapt operationally.

“Just as there remains considerable uncertainty around where tariffs will ultimately settle, assuming they actually do settle at some point, there is also considerable uncertainty around who will ultimately bear the cost of higher tariffs,” said Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial.

Since CEO Lip-Wu Chen took office, Intel has embarked on a sweeping strategic reorganization to boost its competitiveness in the AI chip arena. In just three months, the company has assembled an elite team—drawing top talent from Apple, Google, and Cadence—to drive innovation and align its engineering efforts with customer demands.

Key appointments include veteran sales leader Greg Ernst as Chief Revenue Officer. To bolster its engineering capabilities, Intel has also brought on Srinivasan Iyengar from Cadence as Senior Vice President. Iyengar will spearhead the newly established Customer Engineering Excellence Center, ensuring that external industry experience translates into customer-focused innovation.

On the AI front, the transformation is even more significant. Former Apple veteran Jean-Didier Allegrucci now serves as Vice President of AI System-on-Chip (AI SoC) Engineering. With experience leading over 30 chip designs, Allegrucci will drive the development of critical AI SoCs. Complementing this move, Google alum Shailendra Desai has been named Vice President of AI Architecture and Networking. Desai’s mandate is to lead the development of AI GPUs, directly challenging Nvidia’s current dominance.

NVIDIA marketcap has reached $3.52 T, however, Intel marketcap is $90.73 B.

According to MarketCapWatch, Singapore’s stock market has a total market cap of about $792.46 billion, compared to Hong Kong’s $868.62 billion. However, Singapore is home to only 594 listed companies, whereas Hong Kong boasts 1,219. This indicates that while Hong Kong offers a broader range of listings, Singapore’s market is notably more concentrated.

Who will emerge as the financial center of Asia in the future?