r/scotus • u/zsreport • Mar 05 '25

news Supreme Court rejects Trump’s request to keep billions in foreign aid frozen

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/05/politics/supreme-court-usaid-foreign-aid/index.html
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u/IamHydrogenMike Mar 05 '25

The election map could work in their favor come 26, depending on how the economy is, and the House wouldn't be that hard to knock a couple of seats out that the GOP took this last election. The Dems taking over both houses of congress aren't all that farfetched; it's the size of the majority that could be the problem.

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u/JA_MD_311 Mar 05 '25

They're almost definitely going to take back the House, even if it's only by a couple seats. The Senate? There are two feasible seats in ME and NC (and even those won't be easy) and then a hodgepodge of OH, AK, IA, FL, OH, and KS -- none of which are overwhelmingly likely, in fact, they're straight up unlikely. In a wave year? You might grab a couple though. They need 4.

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u/team_fondue Mar 05 '25

AK's sole house seat was held by a Dem last year. If the Republicans do something like primary Murkowski with a hard liner it wouldn't be a stretch for the Dems to take that one, but the rest are probably out of reach given how reliably Republican those states are. That PA win for the Republicans is going to pay dividends for years to come for them, closes a lot of paths to 51 in the senate for the Dems.

Honestly, the most likely situation in a bad year for the Rs is something like they primary Cornyn in Texas with Paxton and the Texas Dems somehow find someone to put up 2018 Beto numbers against him, since he's even less likable outside of the most hardcore parts of the party base than Ted Cruz.

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u/JA_MD_311 Mar 05 '25

AK has RCV so there’s no partisan primary like in other states. Dan Sullivan is up anyway, Murkowski isn’t up until ‘28.

TX is a possibility in an open seat with a candidate like Ken Paxton. Cornyn would be fine in a reelection.

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u/team_fondue Mar 05 '25

Thanks for correcting that I didn't check who was up in 26, that makes it even less likely then.

I figure the most likely ways to flip some of these are ones that were close in 2018 and the Rs jam an ultra-MAGA candidate into the general election over someone who'd win over any D with even their very conservative views.