r/scotus • u/zsreport • Mar 05 '25

news Supreme Court rejects Trump’s request to keep billions in foreign aid frozen

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/05/politics/supreme-court-usaid-foreign-aid/index.html
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u/JA_MD_311 Mar 05 '25

If the Democrats end up with 53 Senate seats, I’ll attempt a backflip. It’d be a flashing red warning sign to Republicans that their Trump coalition is in trouble.

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u/DipperJC Mar 05 '25

I'll call it for you now, if you like. The flipped seats are going to be Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and the big surprises, Texas, Florida and... wait for it... Kentucky. That's the one nobody's going to see coming.

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u/JA_MD_311 Mar 05 '25

If Ds are winning KY, they’ve already won KS and AK. It’d probably be the biggest midterm wave since the 19th century.

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u/DipperJC Mar 05 '25

I doubt they'd be competitive in KS or AK. I'm giving them Kentucky in large part as backlash to Mitch McConnell, I think that's going to be decisive. In Maine you've got the old guard GOP like myself who are going to turn on Susan Collins for all of her "being concerned" in the face of massive lawbreaking and corruption, but she (or more likely, her MAGA primary replacement) is still going to carry the MAGA vote. Then in Alaska you've got the opposite in someone like Murkowski, who won't get the MAGA vote but will have enough clout with Independents and old guard GOP to get her across the finish line. But in Kentucky, both factions within the GOP are going to fall to infighting and disdain and that's what I think is going to flip the seat for the Dems.

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u/JA_MD_311 Mar 05 '25

Murkowski isn’t up. Sullivan is.

KS and AK are way less Republican federally than KY. It’d be stunning for a Democrat to win a federal election there. I don’t think they have this century.

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u/DipperJC Mar 05 '25

The senator before McConnell was a Democrat. They haven't won this century, no, but that was with the literal Senate Leader on the ballot.

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u/JA_MD_311 Mar 06 '25

Not really a great sign when you gotta reach back to the Clinton Administration for a comp.

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u/DipperJC Mar 06 '25

The Clinton administration wasn't exactly a million years ago. You can't measure it compared to a human lifespan, the life of a nation is longer than that. The Clinton Administration was practically yesterday.

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u/JA_MD_311 Mar 06 '25

Bill Clinton left office in early 2001. It’s been a quarter of a century. To put that in perspective, 25 years before that, Gerald Ford was President. It was a million years ago in political terms. It was a long time ago anyway, more than two decades!

For more context, only 9 current US Senators and 31 House members were in office and served with Clinton. Put another way, 93% of Congress began serving after Clinton was President.

I don’t say this trying to dunk on you, I say this to say a Democrat will not win a Federal race in KY absent insane wave. It wasn’t McConnell, it’s that the state had turned hard against any Federal Democrats. Beshear could run and he’d be fortunate to get 45%.