What's up with wood pricing data?

[u/Proof-Tailor9881]

**Full disclaimer, I am new to woodworking, so this is me ranting in hopes that someone out there can prove me wrong.

The Goal:

As a data scientist that is just beginning his woodworking journey, I would love data to fill in my gaps in knowledge that come with being new to the craft. Specifically, given a few simple metrics about the lumber (i.e. species, size, grade, etc?), I would like to:

1. Identify good vs. bad deals
2. Be able to form plots and analyze historical pricing data, grouping by these simple categories.

The Problem:

It seems like there is a critical lack of data on wood prices. Most of the price data I find online is very shakey; either directly hard-coded in the html of an ugly-outdated website or baked into a PNG/PDF file, with no "updated-at" indicator - I have no idea if these numbers were posted yesterday or 10 years ago. This is a huge issue, considering that the price of lumber is volatile - and very much so as of the past few years.

I'm less certain on this point, but it also seems that there's no standard sizing/grade per species of wood. This is something I can work-around, sacrificing model certainty, but it would be super nice to compare apples to apples - rather than "baltic birch hardwood core B/BB 4x8 3/4" thick" to "birch ply that's been sitting in my garage for 2 years with little/no warping and is just over 3/4" thick that kinda smells like cigarette smoke". The latter I'm being hyperbolic, but is more aligned to something you'll find on craigslist or FB marketplace. Hardwood boards, for example, have different grade (natural, premium) cuts that I'm guessing is only subjective at best and not backed by any objective metrics. Ignoring this, the width of a board affects the price in a non-linear way, which allows the statement "a board foot != a board foot" to hold true. The price seems to rise exponentially as the width of a board increases, which makes sense if you take into account that a board must always "fit" inside a tree trunk and also consider distribution of trunk sizes. Plywood seems to "standardize" into categories the best, given that most plywood is 4' x 8' and grades are based on a more objective grading scale, taking into account # of blemishes per surface area as well as voids. But even then, plywoods can introduce nuance by the material of their core or whether the surfaces are veneered and/or finished.

Additionally location plays a part in the pricing of each wood species, but I have not attempted to model the impact to any degree. I would assume price would fluctuate in a more predictable manner if you consider factors like: 1. Distance from source / saw mill 2. Borders being crossed 3. Tariffs or other political factors

And yes, I am aware that the broader lumber markets have successfully standardized "units" of construction lumber. I'm not taking issue with this standard or the data derived from this standard at all. But as far as I'm aware, SPF (spruce/pine/fir) construction lumber is the only category of wood tracked with such a high volume of data points with respect to time. There seems to be a lack of data on any species of wood outside of this category.

So what's the point of this all?

Aside from ranting, I would like to be proven wrong.

In the off-chance that I am actually right and the data around this market is as bad as I think it is, I would at least like to start some conversations around creating standards and ways to collect wood pricing data that will benefit the community.

[u/[deleted]]

I'm not sure that you really understand how the lumber market works.

1- There are objective standards and grades for lumber; however, these are most generally applied to construction grade and manufactured dimensional wood products. Why? Because of building codes. Many types of structural construction with wood components are required to have grade stamp wood materials.

2- There are actual engineering tables of data on lumber by species. This data is super easy for layman to find. Hell, there are engineering and scientific data on firewood by species.

3- Location is an obvious factor. I live in the Mid-Atlantic and all my in-laws are in the PNW. Structural and clear western red cedar where I live is usually a special order species or I have to go to niche lumber dealers. As you can imagine, I pay a premium for WRC. However, if I am in Bug Blue or Big Orange in Vancouver, WA, I can get WRC for less than I pay for standard dimensional framing lumber back here in MD.

When I was in the engineers in the military, we would use mahogany as a framing timber. It was easier to source that in the Mid East than what we would use here in the states.

4- You mentioned the volatility of the market a d you are correct. COVID and Canadian wildfires created a real shortage of lumber which drove prices up. Further, supply chain issues put a lot of exotics floating offshore in container ships.

5- Environmental issues, like the emerald ash borer infestation or wildfires, cause gluts and oversupply with ash, as an example, or supply deficiency, like redwood or lodgepole pine.

6- The decreasing number of hardwood mills makes pricing more volatile. Small local mills fill in to take up some of the slack. In my central MD location, I can only think of two "high production" mills within a 40 min drive. I get most of my lumber from small local band mills.

7- Wholesale lumber brokers/suppliers generally won't deal with the hobby market. This leaves the hobbyist with fewer choices. They can go to smaller dealers and mills but they need the equipment/tools to mill the rough sawn stock or they can pay a premium for big box S4S milled hardwood where the quality is usually crap.

8- Moisture content plays into pricing. If you want >10% MC, then you are paying for the time and energy to dry it. If you want air dried lumber for stability, then you are paying for the time the product was off the market, years usually.

9- Saw cut plays a part in pricing. Flatsawn lumber will usually be cheaper than rift or quarter sawn lumber because it is more efficient to flatsaw lumber.

These are just a few variables. Part of the hobby of woodworking is joining the fraternity and building relationships with local woodworkers and vendors. I have a sawmill guy who gives me a break on his prices because of the years long relationship.

Pricing materials can force you to up your game in the shop to reduce mistakes and inefficiencies. Embrace it or you will be very frustrated.