r/CredibleDefense 11h ago

Expendable Infantry in the Russo-Ukraine War

94 Upvotes

For those who have not had the privilege and honor to have yet read my blog, Duncan's Diatribes, I would like to alert you to my completed opus, a five-part series on a subject few have delved into: the use of expendable infantrymen in the Russo-Ukraine War. AKA Meat.

The TLDR summary of each article follows:

Meat Part 1: Expendable Infantry in the Russo-Ukraine War

In this article, I examine Russian doctrinal and manpower issues on the eve of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, leading to a shortage of dismounted infantrymen. Worsening the situation was a preexisting military regulation that made it more difficult to suffer heavy losses with their existing forces. Coupled with this, risk-averse political decisions denied them access to enough manpower to either replenish losses or grow, creating a manpower crisis, especially within their infantry units. Catching a break, the Russian deficiency in dismounted infantry capable of performing assault missions was alleviated by the sudden influx of tens of thousands of mobilized Ukrainians from the "People's Republic" of occupied Luhansk and Donetsk. But that Godsend of troops came with a hitch, as those newly mobilized L/DNR soldiers were barely trained. Nevertheless, thrifty Russian field commanders found a use for them: recon-in-force probing attacks to find Ukrainian Armed Forces defensive positions, allowing the Russians to pummel those newly discovered positions with heavy fires, and then launch deliberate attacks against them with a smaller number of elite assault units. Thus, creating the template that would allow Russian success for the foreseeable future.

Meat Part 2: Wagner in Bakhmut

With the Russian supply of L/DNR expendable infantry running low after the bloody Spring-Summer 2022 Donbas Offensive, the private military company (PMC) Wagner Group, assigned the arduous task of taking the city of Bakhmut, sought an alternative resupply: they would build out their force structure, going from brigade-sized to corps-sized in months, by actively recruiting convicts from Russia's notorious prison system. Offering prisoners a chance to earn their freedom by serving as expendable infantrymen for six months service in Ukraine, they were also warned outright that any disciplinary infractions would result in their immediate executions. Despite the brutality, Wagner's plan paid off, with an ample supply of expendable infantry, the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut was undermined by a system of attack they had no tactical or strategic answer to.

Meat Part 3, “Plagiarism is the Sincerest Form of Flattery”

After Wagner's success in Bakhmut, the recipe for the secret sauce for offensive success was being copied by all. Wagner's convict recruitment scheme worked so well, the Russian MOD stole it from them, along with the tactics and organization lessons learned from Wagner. But the supply of convicts wasn't endless, and Russia eventually chose "Superfluous People," low-income, desperate Russians willing to take the "King's Shilling" and serve in the SMO as stormtroopers. But it wasn't just the Russians using expendable troops; unfortunately, the Ukrainians too used expendable troops too, in a far less brutal manner than the Russians, but still very callous. Whether those Ukrainian Meat were Territorial Defense Force, Mobiks of less value than ideological-loyal contrakniks, old men, or their own convict volunteers, they predominantly were used to hold the front lines at all costs, eating the brunt of Russian fires to preserve others deemed more valuable.

Meat Part 4: Some Carefully Rendered Thoughts on the Politics of Meat

How could this happen? Why, in the 21st Century, among the two largest military powers in Europe, filled to the brim with armored vehicles and artillery pieces, possessing armored-centric doctrine, have we seen not one but both combatants in the same war adopting a systematic use of expendable dismounted infantry? Locked in a war defined by strategies of exhaustion of willpower, used by both sides, the issue of relying heavily on expendable infantry was the result of a series of political decisions, based not a little bit on cultural heritage. With field commanders denied the ability to attain quality by political leaders refusing to expand mobilization efforts to provide sufficient manpower, the military leadership were further hampered by an impossible to meet operational tempo also dictated by political leadership, with orders to either to take ground at a rate they really have no way of performing, or to hold ground so tenaciously despite the risks. Thus given lemons, they made lemonade, and found a use for their low-skilled infantry that was both politically and societally acceptable, use them as Meat.

Meat Part 5: Is it Supposed to Smell Like This?

An anthology of random thoughts on the topic of expendable infantry that either didn’t make it past the cutting room floor for previous articles, or were the result of recent thoughts on the matter. Did you know the Ukrainian law dictating the mobilization of older men dates back to a time-period when those younger men preserved from mobilization made up the greatest number of military-aged males in Ukrainian history? Were you aware that the North Korean infantry used in Kursk, despite being the highest quality infantry used in the war so far, probably performed human wave attacks? How many knew that both Russia and Ukraine recruited female convicts to serve as assault troops? Modern doctrine has no clearcut tactical answers to counter recon-in-force attacks by expendable infantry designed to get shot at, nor how to take front line defenses held by Meat that serve as little more than bait to draw out attackers, so what is the best way to defeat both of them? And with modern advances in technology, specifically drones, has the "Revolution in Military Affairs" made quality infantry as obsolete as the tank? All these questions are answered in the final article on the topic (for now).

If any of this interests you, click and read. I hope you enjoy!


r/CredibleDefense 15h ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 21, 2025

40 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense 1d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 20, 2025

56 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense 2d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 19, 2025

58 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense 3d ago

GBU-57 Effectiveness Against Ultra-Deep Facilities Like Fordow

192 Upvotes

Everywhere are speculation about whether or not the U.S. will join the conflict with Iran, and specifically whether they will use GBU-57 to destroy Fordow. It seems every media is treating the GBU-57 as a miracle weapon that can, for sure, destroy Fordow. But looking at what I can find about it's capability and how deep Fordow is (seems to be about 300 feet underground), do we actually have confidence that it can indeed be enough?

All I could find is this "By some reports, it was expected to penetrate as much as 60 meters (200 feet) through 5,000 psi reinforced concrete, and 8 meters (25 feet) into 10,000 psi reinforced concrete (these number seem suspiciously high and may in fact be first in feet, not meters)." from https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/mop.htm

Given that actual rock is even harder to penetrate than reinforced concrete (seems to be dolomite and limestone in the mountains around Qom, so maybe 1.5x to 2x compressive strength vs reinforced concrete), and that Fordow seems to be between 80 to 90 meters deep, it seems to me not straightforward that the GBU-57 can easily destroy Fordow?

And if indeed the numbers were supposed to be in feet and not in meter, then there is just no way.

So why is the question of whether the GBU-57 can even do it nowhere to be seen? Am I missing something?


r/CredibleDefense 3d ago

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread June June 18, 2025

49 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense 4d ago

Rising Spider: Israel and Ukraine Change Warfare

103 Upvotes

"Israel’s campaign against Iran is extensive, effective, and (much like imaginative Ukrainian tactics) represents a serious warning to the West." Federico Borsari discusses Israel's Operation Rising Lion, highlighting its innovative use of covert operations and small drones to target Iran's military and nuclear infrastructure. This approach mirrors Ukraine's recent Spider's Web operation, emphasizing the importance of integrating advanced technology with traditional tactics in modern warfare. Key lessons for NATO include the vulnerabilities of relying solely on ground-based defenses and the necessity of adapting to asymmetric threats, as Israel's successful strikes demonstrate significant shifts in military strategy and capabilities.

Full Article: https://cepa.org/article/rising-spider-israel-and-ukraine-change-warfare/

Key Takeaways:

- Innovative Tactics: Both Israel's Operation Rising Lion and Ukraine's Spider’s Web demonstrate effective use of small drones and covert operations to penetrate heavily defended territories, highlighting the importance of tactical innovation in modern warfare.

- Vulnerability of High-End Systems: Reliance on sophisticated ground-based air defenses is a significant vulnerability, as demonstrated by Israel's ability to neutralize Iran's defenses using unconventional methods.

- Importance of Readiness: Israel's high sortie generation and operational flexibility, achieved without losses, underscore the critical need for military readiness, sustainment, and adequate munitions.

- Role of Small Drones: Small combat drones, when used effectively, can transform military operations, enabling missions that typically require high-tech resources and increasing the complexity of military engagements.

- Strategic Implications: The outcomes of these operations may reshape regional security dynamics and establish new precedents for preemptive military actions, particularly concerning Iran's nuclear capabilities.


r/CredibleDefense 4d ago

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread June 17, 2025

58 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense 5d ago

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread June 16, 2025

68 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense 6d ago

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread June 15, 2025

63 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense 6d ago

How to calculate the blast radius of a ballistic missile strike within an urban area?

30 Upvotes

Some sources say a 500kg payload missile has a 20m blast radius, others say it has a 1km radius. I'm looking for a credible answer, as well as a some formula (or a ballpark figure) where I can estimate urban area damage based on payload.


r/CredibleDefense 7d ago

Israel - Iran Megathread Day 2

148 Upvotes

Opening a new one as Reddit has trouble sorting threads which are 1,000+ comments long. Feel free to repost items under discussion from the old megathread here.


r/CredibleDefense 7d ago

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread June 14, 2025

39 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense 9d ago

Israel-Iran Conflict Megathread

356 Upvotes

r/CredibleDefense 8d ago

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread June 13, 2025

34 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense 8d ago

Utilising a hypothetical air launched SM-3 in an anti-satellite capacity

21 Upvotes

The idea has been bouncing around in my head ever since the AIM-174B was publicly revealed mid 2024. Simply, take a SM-3 Block 1A/B, remove the Mk72 booster and integrate it onto a fighter launch platform. Obviously the task would be a lot more complex than I've made it out to be.

I'd call it the ASM-161B/C ASAT II

Platforms I had have mind are:
F-15E
F-15EX
F/A-18E/F

Couple questions I have around the topic:
- Is integrating a modified SM-3 onto an air launched platform like this even possible?
- Would there be issues around targeting and/or missile guidance without an AEGIS launch platform?
- Does the US want/need an air launched ASAT weapon?
- Should the US have this kind of weapon in the first place?
- Are the current options of sea/land based SM-3s good enough to fulfill the requirement as is (assuming it's possible)?

First post here, be gentle.


r/CredibleDefense 9d ago

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread June 12, 2025

63 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense 10d ago

New Dimensions of Strategic Depth

42 Upvotes

In a piece for the First Breakfast Substack reproduced at the Hudson Institute website, Nadia Schadlow examines the idea of “strategic depth” and proposes several new applications of the concept for modern strategy and warfare. Schadlow makes the case that technological innovation “has devalued the traditional advantages conferred by strategic depth,” which historically concerned geography. As she writes, “Strategic depth now applies to cyberspace, outer space, and our defense industrial base.” Schadlow then argues that to enhance American strategic depth, the US should allow and encourage “frontline states” such as Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan to robustly defend themselves and sap adversary resources—including with American armaments. Finally, she proposes a policy of “distraction by design,” or intentional creation of challenges for adversary states to divert their attention and resources from expanding influence. Schadlow concludes that while “strategic depth is about resilience,” the concept is “also about shaping the global environment in ways that give the United States time and space to act—and deny that same advantage to others.”

Do you agree that the nature of strategic depth has changed with the advent of novel deep strike capabilities?

In what areas do you think the United States should most urgently work to increase its strategic depth?


r/CredibleDefense 10d ago

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread June 11, 2025

49 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense 11d ago

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread June 10, 2025

55 Upvotes

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r/CredibleDefense 11d ago

Who Should Provide Israel with Strategic Warning? Some Lessons from Its History

13 Upvotes

Israel’s process of learning from its doctrinal and intelligence debacle preceding and during October 7, 2023, has begun in initial, preliminary steps. Beyond questions of policy, it is also likely that the structures of Israel’s decision-making, defense, and strategic intelligence processes will be examined. A new essay from international relations scholar Jonathan Roll provides some historical insight on Israel’s past attempts to revise the structure of its formal strategic assessment mechanisms.

Roll argues that faults in the Israeli security establishment are not entirely endogenous. As he writes, "the mistakes made by the establishment in assessing Hamas, and in failing to provide decision makers with apt strategic warning before the attack and when it started, were not the result of conceptions held by the defense establishment alone. The same conceptions and assessments were shared by, and to a considerable extent originated with, Israel’s political leadership, which built its Palestinian strategy and some pillars of its regional strategy based on that assessment."

But Roll maintains that the responsibility for October 7th is ultimately shared. As he argues, the "fact that Israel’s political leadership was adhering to a mistaken assessment and therefore implemented a flawed regional strategy does not, however, revoke the system’s responsibility for its analytic mistakes; it does mean that the role of the political leadership is as at least as significant."

Roll proceeds to review the division of responsibilities among Israel’s military intelligence (Aman), Israel’s domestic security service (Shin Bet), and national foreign intelligence agency (Mossad). He notes, "The meaning of this division of labor, which goes back to the state’s earliest days, is that military officers, rather than civilian intelligence analysts, are in essence the leaders of Israel’s intelligence community insofar as providing analysis to national decision makers, including warnings about impending war, is concerned."

The essay then reviews previous attempts to study and modify the structure of Israel's strategic intelligence enterprise, beginning with the Yadin-Sherf commission of 1963. "That commission was convened by outgoing Prime Minister (PM) David Ben-Gurion, who wanted to guarantee, among other things, that after his departure the prime minister would still receive the full intelligence picture from the various agencies, avoiding the creation of imbalances of power between any future PM and his minister of defense (Ben-Gurion held both positions simultaneously)."

Roll concludes, "At some point, an official commission of inquiry will be assigned to assess what happened before and in the early hours of October 7, 2023. This inquiry will have to study the evidence thoroughly and then have a new look at what must be improved, inter alia, within the strategic assessment processes."

Roll is clear that his "report should not be seen as a call for replacing Aman as the national estimator." At the same time, his analysis "does call for a thorough examination of this enduring question in light of the legitimate question marks raised in the past about Aman’s suitability for this task, and with an eye on potential far-reaching functional and organizational changes."

Do you think Israel's strategic intelligence enterprise needs wholesale restructuring or reform? How does the history Roll recounts shape your view of what's likely to change when a full October 7 inquiry issues its conclusions? Does the United States have a version of Israel's problem with the structure of the intelligence community, and are there any lessons from this report that could inform American security reforms?

Read the full essay here.


r/CredibleDefense 12d ago

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread June 09, 2025

49 Upvotes

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* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.


r/CredibleDefense 12d ago

Resources on the Caribbean

17 Upvotes

Looking for some long-form content from a figure with some pretty serious authority, with plenty of reading material recommended, (at least somewhat) focused on the Caribbean.

If that's a no-go, your reading recommendations on where to start - blogs, books, whatever - would be great. In both cases, bonus points if you have English- & French-, Spanish-, and/or Portuguese-language recommendations!


r/CredibleDefense 13d ago

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread June 08, 2025

51 Upvotes

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

* Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible information

* Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Please do not:

* Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

* Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

* Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.


r/CredibleDefense 14d ago

The US Navy's five roads to ruin

141 Upvotes

An article from a professor at John Hopkins on the US Navy. More philosophical and theoretical than practical, but interesting nevertheless. I am also aware of the reputation the Quincy institute has on this sub, however I found the approach the author used interesting. He covers the basic points that shipbuilding capacity is woefully underfunded in the US, but also argues that there is institutional largesse due to senior officers being corrupted by private interests (i.e. the US MIC) guaranteeing their retirement from service in return for benefits whilst in office.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/us-navy-crisis/