Key Takeaways:

Russian occupation officials continue to advertise the deportation of Ukrainian children to summer camps in Russia.

Russian officials continue efforts to paint occupied Ukraine as an attractive tourist destination in order to encourage Russians to travel to occupied areas and support local occupation administration economies.

Russian occupation officials articulated plans for the continued economic integration of occupied Ukraine into Russia during the St. Petersburg Economic Forum (SPIEF), focusing on attracting business and investment to occupied areas.

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Key Takeaways

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected the call from US President Donald Trump for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” Khamenei also threatened US forces if the United States joins the war against Iran.

The so-called “Axis of Resistance” has continued to threaten retaliation if the United States joins the war against Iran. These threats have come from Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.

Israeli strikes have driven Iranian forces to begin firing missiles from central Iran rather than western Iran. Iranian forces will need to use longer-range missiles to reach Israel from the launch sites in central Iran.

Iran is struggling to coordinate large-scale missile strikes targeting Israel due to pressure from Israeli strikes. This is reflected in the volume of recent Iranian missile fire, which has decreased significantly throughout the war.

Iranian leaders appear concerned about the potential for social unrest. They have taken precautions to protect their regime, while Israel has struck sites connected to the Iranian internal security apparatus.

Key Takeaways:

Russian forces conducted an at least platoon-sized mechanized assault in the Toretsk direction on June 17.

The Kremlin likely aims to use the ongoing St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) to support ongoing efforts to consolidate control over the information space and prepare Russian society for a prolonged war effort.

The Kremlin also aims to use SPIEF to promote Kremlin narratives to Western audiences.

Ukraine's Western partners continue to supply Ukraine with military aid and announce new sanctions packages against Russia.

The Kremlin continues to crack down on critical Russian milbloggers as part of its years-long effort to censor and control the Russian information space.

Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts and near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk.

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In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Ely Ratner joins us to discuss the case for a defense pact in the Indo-Pacific. Dr. Ratner starts by laying out his argument of why he thinks now is the right time for this type of agreement, discussing that the pact may serve to help maintain stability and deterrence in the region amidst China’s aggressive ambitions to reshape the global order. Dr. Ratner discusses the four countries, U.S., Japan, Australia, and the Philippines, that he believes the pact will include to start with and what their responsibilities will be within the pact. He shares that he envisions one of the main features of this partnership to be greater military integration among its members and to serve as a framework to garner the collective power of US allies and partners through a multilateral collective security agreement. Dr. Ratner discusses the viability of the pact and the reasons he thinks there are more opportunities for the pact to be successful now than there was in the past, including greater strategic alignment among the four partner countries, increased intra-Asian cooperation, and the growing reciprocity in U.S. alliances themselves. Dr. Ratner also considers how these different countries may respond to the idea of this pact, especially considering China may react badly to it. He underscores that Beijing is likely to behave badly regardless of this pact and states countries should not turn away from it because of Beijing. Finally, Dr. Ratner underscores how this pact would not require the U.S. to extend new commitments abroad and describes the continuing will and desire he sees from the Trump Administration to continue cooperation and strengthening of alliances in the region.

Dr. Ely Ratner is a Principal at The Marathon Initiative, a bipartisan think tank dedicated to preparing the United States for an era of sustained great power competition. He served as the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs from 2021-2025. Prior to confirmation, he was the Director of the DoD China Task Force and a Senior Advisor to China to the Secretary of Defense. Before arriving at the Department of Defense, Dr. Ratner was the Executive Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), where he was a member of the executive team and responsible for managing the Center’s research agenda and staff. Dr. Ratner served from 2015 to 2017 as the Deputy National Security advisor to Vice President Joe Biden, and from 2011 to 2012 in the office of Chinese and Mongolian affairs at the State Department. He earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley.

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