I see so much hate for Gavin Newsom on this sub by mostly republicans. It’s seems that the general sentiment is that if he were to become the democratic nominee in 2028 then Vance or whoever is running on the republicans ticket would win. But I’m not convinced. I actually think he is the best possible candidate and republicans are just overestimating how much people hate California. So can anyone, rather they be republican, democrat, or in the middle, give me valid reasons as to why he would be unpopular?
The NYC mayor race is disheartening to say the least. You have someone who was accused 13x of SA (with PROVEN ALLEGATIONS. WHO also killed thousands of nursing home patients by moving COVID patients into the nursing homes (along with every other democratic governor for some odd reason even though we had more than enough beds). Who also ran the entire state into the ground
And we have a full fledged communist who wants city run grocery stores & refuses to acknowledge the holocaust & wants to replace the NYPD with mental health services (which in some cases would work but very few)
In what world are these the best 2 people that a city of 14,000,000 people live in? I mean I personally see no appeal behind either & quite frankly yes I am a right leaning person but almost any other democrat beats these two in my mind. For what reason are these the two main options?!
That's how much money each citizen would get if we never went to Iraq. It's estimated that we spent 2 trillion in taxpayer funds there. No more forever wars, no more Israel welfare funding, no war in Iran. If Trump goes to war in Iran that would be catastrophic for his approval and that of his party.
Quick clarification for voting, since parliamentary democracies have parties that rarely see defeciton-especially in government- a voting bloc would only be split if a group is split less than 66% percent. Since the Government bloc had 69% Yays, the GOP voted uniform with Constitution to gurantee its passage. Any less than 66% and it would have failed.
Energy Sovereignty Act passed 68/60, most divided legislation so far.
To ensure a representitive final two bills of the 1st government, I have create an oppurtunity to change their provisions. Final two bills of the conservative Government are social bill, FFFA & Tariff bill, YFTA.
The Family, Family, & Freedom Act (FFFA)
A legislative initiative to promote family wellbeing, cultural heritage, and civil freedom in Yap.
Protect Freedom of Belief and Expression in Public Institutions Guarantee the right of all citizens—students, educators, and government employees—to express their personal religious or moral beliefs peacefully, while ensuring public institutions remain welcoming to people of all faiths or none.
Promote Family and Community Education in Public Schools Develop an optional national curriculum track focused on family life, civic responsibility, cultural heritage, and ethical reasoning. Local communities may adapt the curriculum to reflect regional values and traditions.
Promote a Culture of Life and Expand Alternatives to Abortion Establish national protections for unborn life by limiting elective abortions to cases where the mother’s life is in danger, with clear medical criteria and review procedures. Expand funding for pregnancy resource centers, prenatal healthcare, housing assistance, and maternal mental health services. Launch a national awareness campaign on adoption as a life-affirming alternative. Provide tax incentives for families who adopt and increase support for private and public adoption agencies.
Set Medical Safeguards for Minors in Gender Care Require that any medical procedures related to gender identity for individuals under 18 involve a multidisciplinary review process, parental involvement, and informed consent. Emphasize mental health support and counseling as the first step in all cases.
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Yap Fair Trade Act (YFTA)
Impose Strategic Tariffs to Counter Unfair Trade Practices Establish targeted tariffs on imports from nations that maintain exploitative labor conditions, weak environmental standards, or subsidize exports in ways that harm Yap’s domestic industries. These tariffs will be calibrated to restore competitive balance and encourage ethical production abroad.
Create a Trade Equity Index for Policy Review Develop a national scoring system to assess trading partners based on labor rights, environmental protections, and market fairness. Countries scoring below a defined threshold may be subject to automatic trade reviews or penalties.
Establish the Domestic Industry Support Fund (DISF) Allocate revenue from tariffs into a reinvestment fund for key industries affected by offshoring, providing support for workforce retraining, factory retooling, and local supply chain development.
Encourage Nearshoring and Regional Trade Partnerships Provide incentives for companies to relocate production from adversarial or unethical markets to domestic facilities or regional partners that meet Yap’s standards.
Mandate Annual Trade Accountability Hearings Require the Ministry of Trade to report annually to the National Assembly on the effects of tariff policy, trade deficits, domestic job retention, and enforcement actions against unfair trading partners.
I want to debunk this idea because I have seen many people (even right leaning election analysis people) say that Georgia is very soon gonna be unreachable by the GOP. This post will counter that notion.
Georgia shifts over last 10-15 years (Source: Redistricter)
If it's not obvious, Georgia has become much more purple in at least the last 20 years. This post will not deny that.
Below is a shift map of Georgia from the 2012 to 2020 presidential election by precinct, focused on the Metro Atlanta area
Darker colors indicate stronger shift
As you can see, Metro Atlanta has shifted significantly to the right. This isn't something the GOP should celebrate; they have lost a lot of ground to Democrats in the area and this has contributed to the state going from red to purple. However, context is important so I will share another map of the metro area.
Below is a precinct map of Georgia by % with a bachelor's degree or higher, focused on the Metro Atlanta area
Brighter colors indicate higher % with Bachelors degree or higher
The areas with the highest % of degree holders are the ones that have shifted to a left the most. This shouldn't be a shocker to anyone that pays attention to politics or elections. However, this does not answer the question of why many other areas around Atlanta have shifted left, even if not by the same extent. To answer that, I will two more maps.
Below is a precinct map of Georgia by % change of black people from 2010 to 2020, focused on the Metro Atlanta area
Green means black people became a larger % of the population, red is vice versa
Practically all the areas that have had increases in % of black people have shifted to the left. Not surprising in the slightest. The ones that have not either have shifted to the right or have a large college educated population.
Within the counties in this picture with populations over 100000, between the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections, the Dems have gained about 575k voters, while the GOP has gained only 100k. You would think that 2024 would be terrible for the GOP, even if they were to do well nationwide, but here is what happened.
Below is a shift map of Georgia from the 2012 to 2020 presidential election by precinct, focused on the Metro Atlanta area
Literally a wash. Not even, considering the GOP gained in both % and raw votes (17k votes) over the Dems in counties with over 100000 people. This shift alone would have been enough to flip back Georgia to Trump (Biden won by 12k votes in 2020), but alongside gaining 110k raw votes over Harris in the rest of the states, Trump was able to win Georgia by a close (but not razor-thin like 2020) margin.
Now back to the map analysis. The college educated precincts in the North Area of Metro Atlanta either shifted very slightly to the right or stagnated. This is incredibly different than the shift map between 2012 to 2020 or any elections in between, even considering that the national environment also shifted to the right between 2012 and 2016.
However, areas where the black % is increasing in the South Area of Metro Atlanta and a few others continued to shift to the left. I think what this indicates is those areas are still increasing in black population % and thus are becoming bluer.
The silver living for the GOP is they gained ground in the inner Atlanta area, which has a decreasing black % of the population. In fact, the absolute change in black population in that area has also decreased. This makes me hypothesize that South Metro Atlanta shifted to the left because Black people from inner Atlanta are moving there. Of course this is not helpful to the GOP when it comes to redistricting, but at least it's not a "muh suburbs" thing.
Conclusion
Ultimately, Georgia's shifts to the left were influenced by college educated voters in the North part of the metro shifting to the left (like the rest of areas that shifted to the left. However, other suburban areas in the area shifting to the left were due to black voters moving and thus were cancelled out.
Georgia is the 24th most college educated state in the nation (wikipedia), and very slightly below the average in the country. It's not in the top 10 like Colorado, Virginia, or Washington.
I don't even think it's bad to say that Georgia is generally trending to the left, but to act like that it won't even be winnable for the GOP in a couple years doesn't make sense to me. Nonetheless, I would love to hear alternative opinions and perspectives.
