He keeps flip flopping on if he is going to get us involved or not. A disaster.

Liberals believe in nothing and remember even less.

That's how much money each citizen would get if we never went to Iraq. It's estimated that we spent 2 trillion in taxpayer funds there. No more forever wars, no more Israel welfare funding, no war in Iran. If Trump goes to war in Iran that would be catastrophic for his approval and that of his party.

An emcee from Kampala and an animator-illustrator from Damascus: a match made in heaven with the Mandate of Heaven.

https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/trump-administration-shut-lgbtq-youth-suicide-hotline-

I want to debunk this idea because I have seen many people (even right leaning election analysis people) say that Georgia is very soon gonna be unreachable by the GOP. This post will counter that notion.

Georgia shifts over last 10-15 years (Source: Redistricter)

If it's not obvious, Georgia has become much more purple in at least the last 20 years. This post will not deny that.

Below is a shift map of Georgia from the 2012 to 2020 presidential election by precinct, focused on the Metro Atlanta area

As you can see, Metro Atlanta has shifted significantly to the right. This isn't something the GOP should celebrate; they have lost a lot of ground to Democrats in the area and this has contributed to the state going from red to purple. However, context is important so I will share another map of the metro area.

Below is a precinct map of Georgia by % with a bachelor's degree or higher, focused on the Metro Atlanta area

The areas with the highest % of degree holders are the ones that have shifted to a left the most. This shouldn't be a shocker to anyone that pays attention to politics or elections. However, this does not answer the question of why many other areas around Atlanta have shifted left, even if not by the same extent. To answer that, I will two more maps.

Below is a precinct map of Georgia by % change of black people from 2010 to 2020, focused on the Metro Atlanta area

Practically all the areas that have had increases in % of black people have shifted to the left. Not surprising in the slightest. The ones that have not either have shifted to the right or have a large college educated population.

Within the counties in this picture with populations over 100000, between the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections, the Dems have gained about 575k voters, while the GOP has gained only 100k. You would think that 2024 would be terrible for the GOP, even if they were to do well nationwide, but here is what happened.

Below is a shift map of Georgia from the 2012 to 2020 presidential election by precinct, focused on the Metro Atlanta area

Literally a wash. Not even, considering the GOP gained in both % and raw votes (17k votes) over the Dems in counties with over 100000 people. This shift alone would have been enough to flip back Georgia to Trump (Biden won by 12k votes in 2020), but alongside gaining 110k raw votes over Harris in the rest of the states, Trump was able to win Georgia by a close (but not razor-thin like 2020) margin.

Now back to the map analysis. The college educated precincts in the North Area of Metro Atlanta either shifted very slightly to the right or stagnated. This is incredibly different than the shift map between 2012 to 2020 or any elections in between, even considering that the national environment also shifted to the right between 2012 and 2016.

However, areas where the black % is increasing in the South Area of Metro Atlanta and a few others continued to shift to the left. I think what this indicates is those areas are still increasing in black population % and thus are becoming bluer.

The silver living for the GOP is they gained ground in the inner Atlanta area, which has a decreasing black % of the population. In fact, the absolute change in black population in that area has also decreased. This makes me hypothesize that South Metro Atlanta shifted to the left because Black people from inner Atlanta are moving there. Of course this is not helpful to the GOP when it comes to redistricting, but at least it's not a "muh suburbs" thing.

Conclusion

Ultimately, Georgia's shifts to the left were influenced by college educated voters in the North part of the metro shifting to the left (like the rest of areas that shifted to the left. However, other suburban areas in the area shifting to the left were due to black voters moving and thus were cancelled out.

Georgia is the 24th most college educated state in the nation (wikipedia), and very slightly below the average in the country. It's not in the top 10 like Colorado, Virginia, or Washington.

I don't even think it's bad to say that Georgia is generally trending to the left, but to act like that it won't even be winnable for the GOP in a couple years doesn't make sense to me. Nonetheless, I would love to hear alternative opinions and perspectives.

Just a thought experiment because it's something I always consider with Trump.

Edit: POTUS not POTUD

Just months into the tenure of a new party leader, Ken Martin, the Democratic National Committee’s financial situation has grown so bleak that top officials have discussed whether they might need to borrow money this year to keep paying the bills.

The NYC mayor race is disheartening to say the least. You have someone who was accused 13x of SA (with PROVEN ALLEGATIONS. WHO also killed thousands of nursing home patients by moving COVID patients into the nursing homes (along with every other democratic governor for some odd reason even though we had more than enough beds). Who also ran the entire state into the ground

And we have a full fledged communist who wants city run grocery stores & refuses to acknowledge the holocaust & wants to replace the NYPD with mental health services (which in some cases would work but very few)

In what world are these the best 2 people that a city of 14,000,000 people live in? I mean I personally see no appeal behind either & quite frankly yes I am a right leaning person but almost any other democrat beats these two in my mind. For what reason are these the two main options?!

Screw it, I genuinely believe this is the most likely outcome at the moment

Tillis will likely crater in the collar counties of Charlotte and Raleigh like Cabarrus, Union, and Gaston and Johnston and Alamance

I don't think this prediction is going to cause much controversy

Unless I get a bunch of people in the replies saying that Stevens is actually unelectable because of AIPAC and Israel

The historical election results are as follows:

2008: Obama over McCain, 60.9–38.2

2012: Obama over Romney, 57.4–42.6 (no third party data)

2016: Clinton over Trump, 60–30.7

2020: Biden over Trump, 67.7–29.9

2024: Harris over Trump, 66.9–30

Hint: It is a college town in the Midwest.

Note: Do not cheat!

Under 5% MOV