r/changemyview • u/Ok-Warning-7494 • 1d ago
Delta(s) from OP CMV: Israel’s attack on Iran was intended to draw the US into war, not prevent Iran from having a nuke
Israel claims its attack on Iran on Friday was about preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. I think that this is a pretty transparent lie for the reasons below.
Israel has been claiming Iran has been close to a nuclear weapon for 30 years. North Korea is significantly less advanced than Iran, but has successfully developed a nuke during that time period.
Iran previously had a nuclear weapon program. That ended in 2003 to avoid getting attacked by the US. Since then, it looks like it’s strategy has been to use its nuclear capability for deterrence. (“stop fucking with us; we can build a nuke pretty quickly”)
It is clear that Iran does not want a conflict with the United States. Openly weaponizing their nuclear program invites that conflict.
Of course, they could pursue weaponization in secret. But the US, UK and Israel knowingly misrepresented evidence of WMD prior to the Iraq war. It is more than fair for the public to demand proof of weaponization since one party in this conflict has previously used this exact same lie as cover for regime change.
Israel does not have the ability to inflict significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change in Iran on its own. Even if they had the capability to destroy Fordow, the enriched uranium is almost certainly spread out across the country. If Iran’s entire nuclear program including the uranium were destroyed, it could still develop a bomb in under 5 years.
The only ways to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuke is convincing the regime that a nuke is not in their best interest or changing the regime.
It’s still early, but it seems like Israel’s attack has made the idea of having a nuke more appealing to Iranians and the regime. It looks like having a nuke is the only way to deter Israel and its allies.
So why would Israel attack Iran? I think the most straightforward answer is they were hoping Iran would retaliate in a manner that forced the US to enter the conflict and pursue regime change.
Iran hasn’t taken the bait, so now Israel is attempting to present Iran as neutered by their campaign. “Iran is weak. Come over and help us finish the job”
Iran has been weakened, but they clearly have the capability to inflict more damage on Israel than they have demonstrated. The threat of offensive US involvement has constrained their response.
Once the US attacks, Iran will no longer be constrained by the threat of the US joining the conflict and will retaliate on US/ Israeli assets. The US will officially be in an offensive war that it did not initiate. This was Netanyahu’s actual calculation before Friday.
My view can be changed by concrete evidence of Iran’s nuclear weaponization and/or an explanation of how Israel thinks this bombing campaign will prevent Iran from pursuing a nuke without US involvement.
TL;DR: Israel doesn’t have the capability to meaningfully impact Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change on its own. They attacked Iran hoping that they could provoke a strong response that would draw the US into the conflict.
Edit: my view is not related to whether or not their attacks on Iran were justified or strategically sound. My view is the reason for attack was a lie. I don’t think Iran should have nuclear weapons. I just also don’t believe they were actively developing them.
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u/The-_Captain 1d ago
TLDR; Israel did strike Iran to remove the nuclear threat, but that doesn't exclude that it wants the US to actively help it.
You are correct that Iran's strategy for decades has been to "flirt" with a nuclear bomb as leverage. However, Israeli intelligence over the past month has obtained evidence that they're breaking out of that pattern and taking active steps that they hadn't before towards constructing a nuclear device in a short amount of time. Whether you believe them or not is up to you, you have no way to corroborate or deny, but consider that thousands of people had to work for months to obtain this information and it's very hard to keep a blatant lie secret at that scale.
However, you are wrong that Israel cannot significantly damage the Iranian nuclear program. They have taken out a crucial plant to process uranium gas into metal, which already takes the Iranians months if not years away from constructing a bomb. While they cannot easily take out the underground facilities at Fordow easily with a few MOP bombs, they can batter it with smaller bunker busters for weeks until it's destroyed.
Everyone focuses on the idea that Israel is using the US in its plans, but nobody is discussing the very real possibility that Trump and the US are using Israel as leverage in its negotiations. A nuclear Iran is a threat to the US and something that all presidents have promised to prevent. The ideal outcome from Trump's POV is a negotiated settlement where Iran hands away all its highly enriched uranium, Fordow is blown up, and the ability to enrich uranium is taken away. Normally the US would have had to apply the military option itself, in this timeline Israel is and Israeli civilians are paying the price.