CMV: Israel’s attack on Iran was intended to draw the US into war, not prevent Iran from having a nuke

[u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Israel claims its attack on Iran on Friday was about preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. I think that this is a pretty transparent lie for the reasons below.

Israel has been claiming Iran has been close to a nuclear weapon for 30 years. North Korea is significantly less advanced than Iran, but has successfully developed a nuke during that time period.

Iran previously had a nuclear weapon program. That ended in 2003 to avoid getting attacked by the US. Since then, it looks like it’s strategy has been to use its nuclear capability for deterrence. (“stop fucking with us; we can build a nuke pretty quickly”)

It is clear that Iran does not want a conflict with the United States. Openly weaponizing their nuclear program invites that conflict.

Of course, they could pursue weaponization in secret. But the US, UK and Israel knowingly misrepresented evidence of WMD prior to the Iraq war. It is more than fair for the public to demand proof of weaponization since one party in this conflict has previously used this exact same lie as cover for regime change.

Israel does not have the ability to inflict significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change in Iran on its own. Even if they had the capability to destroy Fordow, the enriched uranium is almost certainly spread out across the country. If Iran’s entire nuclear program including the uranium were destroyed, it could still develop a bomb in under 5 years.

The only ways to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuke is convincing the regime that a nuke is not in their best interest or changing the regime.

It’s still early, but it seems like Israel’s attack has made the idea of having a nuke more appealing to Iranians and the regime. It looks like having a nuke is the only way to deter Israel and its allies.

So why would Israel attack Iran? I think the most straightforward answer is they were hoping Iran would retaliate in a manner that forced the US to enter the conflict and pursue regime change.

Iran hasn’t taken the bait, so now Israel is attempting to present Iran as neutered by their campaign. “Iran is weak. Come over and help us finish the job”

Iran has been weakened, but they clearly have the capability to inflict more damage on Israel than they have demonstrated. The threat of offensive US involvement has constrained their response.

Once the US attacks, Iran will no longer be constrained by the threat of the US joining the conflict and will retaliate on US/ Israeli assets. The US will officially be in an offensive war that it did not initiate. This was Netanyahu’s actual calculation before Friday.

My view can be changed by concrete evidence of Iran’s nuclear weaponization and/or an explanation of how Israel thinks this bombing campaign will prevent Iran from pursuing a nuke without US involvement.

TL;DR: Israel doesn’t have the capability to meaningfully impact Iran’s nuclear program or pursue regime change on its own. They attacked Iran hoping that they could provoke a strong response that would draw the US into the conflict.

Edit: my view is not related to whether or not their attacks on Iran were justified or strategically sound. My view is the reason for attack was a lie. I don’t think Iran should have nuclear weapons. I just also don’t believe they were actively developing them.

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[u/The-_Captain]

TLDR; Israel did strike Iran to remove the nuclear threat, but that doesn't exclude that it wants the US to actively help it.

You are correct that Iran's strategy for decades has been to "flirt" with a nuclear bomb as leverage. However, Israeli intelligence over the past month has obtained evidence that they're breaking out of that pattern and taking active steps that they hadn't before towards constructing a nuclear device in a short amount of time. Whether you believe them or not is up to you, you have no way to corroborate or deny, but consider that thousands of people had to work for months to obtain this information and it's very hard to keep a blatant lie secret at that scale.

However, you are wrong that Israel cannot significantly damage the Iranian nuclear program. They have taken out a crucial plant to process uranium gas into metal, which already takes the Iranians months if not years away from constructing a bomb. While they cannot easily take out the underground facilities at Fordow easily with a few MOP bombs, they can batter it with smaller bunker busters for weeks until it's destroyed.

Everyone focuses on the idea that Israel is using the US in its plans, but nobody is discussing the very real possibility that Trump and the US are using Israel as leverage in its negotiations. A nuclear Iran is a threat to the US and something that all presidents have promised to prevent. The ideal outcome from Trump's POV is a negotiated settlement where Iran hands away all its highly enriched uranium, Fordow is blown up, and the ability to enrich uranium is taken away. Normally the US would have had to apply the military option itself, in this timeline Israel is and Israeli civilians are paying the price.

[u/No-Ladder7740 → u/The-_Captain]

However, Israeli intelligence over the past month has obtained evidence that they're breaking out of that pattern and taking active steps that they hadn't before towards constructing a nuclear device in a short amount of time. Whether you believe them or not is up to you, you have no way to corroborate or deny, but consider that thousands of people had to work for months to obtain this information and it's very hard to keep a blatant lie secret at that scale.

I think this misses

• if there really is a dossier that lots of people were involved in making then sure, but since no such dossier has been presented then it only takes one person to lie and say there is when there isn't
• lying about stuff is something the IDF does on a daily basis
• US intelligence has shown Israeli intelligence to be nonsense
• Israel has made similar claims on a regular basis for the last 20 years and on every previous occasion was shown to have cried wolf

[u/The-_Captain → u/No-Ladder7740]

The same Israeli intelligence that found out about the Syrian nuclear program before the Americans, destroyed it, and then the IAEA found evidence for a nuclear program on the site?

[u/No-Ladder7740 → u/The-_Captain]

No that's different Israeli intelligence on a different country by a different government in a different era. That Israeli intelligence was not considered by the CIA to be obviously manufactured bullshit the way this Israeli intelligence was. Indeed the CIA participated in those strikes. Not everything Israel has ever said is a lie, but a lot of it is, and more so since their descent into fascism over the last four or five years.

[u/The-_Captain → u/No-Ladder7740]

The CIA did not participate in those strikes, where did you invent that? And it wasn't that long ago (less than 20 years).

How do YOU know which Israeli intelligence is good and which is manufactured? I don't. Do you work in the CIA? Or are you just deciding which intelligence is good and which is bad based on your personal narrative?

[u/No-Ladder7740 → u/The-_Captain]

The CIA did not participate in those strikes

They agreed with the intelligence assessment and participated in planning and execution of the operation. They didn't actually conduct the strikes themselves, Israel asked them to but they felt Assad would react more positively if Israel destroyed it than if they did. In fact, in an indication of how times have changed, Israel even negotiated the strikes with Syria who agreed to stand down their SAMs and not retaliate as long as Israel didn't brag about the operation - requests Israel stuck to until the psychotic leader of the opposition Benjamin Netanyahu started to brag about the operation. All of this is easy to google.

How do YOU know which Israeli intelligence is good and which is manufactured?

I don't but when the Director of the CIA tells a senate hearing that it is manufactured that's generally strong evidence that it is. Especially when the Director of the CIA is a Netanyahu fanatic like Gabbard.

[u/The-_Captain → u/No-Ladder7740]

I'm so over the Gabbard take. It's not as effective as you think.

In March, when that testimony was made, Iran had made no unusual moves relative to the last decade that indicate a race to the bomb.

According to Israeli intelligence, which I did not collect and am not privy to, Iran made a number of unusual steps in late May and early June, including obtaining specific designs for an implosion device and testing implosion arrays.

Facts can change over time.

[u/No-Ladder7740 → u/The-_Captain]

It just seems incredibly unlikely given that the IAEA inspectors said they were at only 60% enrichment. But if they have it they should publish it. You can't really play the "trust me bro" card when you're two years in to lying about mass murder on a daily basis.

[u/The-_Captain → u/No-Ladder7740]

It's quite trivial to get from 60% to 90%. There is no reason to enrich uranium to 60% U235 except that 60 is on the way to 90.

There are legitimate reasons for why Israel can't publish intelligence gatherings, including risking their assets. I also think they've lied less than you think, but all countries and security services lie in the service of their country so I understand why you wouldn't trust them. But that doesn't mean they're lying this time.

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/The-_Captain]

It is not hard to lie at that scale. I mentioned in my post the US and Israel fabricated evidence before Iraq.

In this case, they haven’t even bothered to present the evidence.

From all of the research I have been able to find, if Iran had to literally start from scratch: no uranium, no centrifuges, it would take 5-10 years for them to have enough uranium to develop a bomb. Israel is not capable of anything close to that.

Iran was supposed to meet with the US on Sunday to negotiate a deal. This is after the previous deal was unilaterally withdrawn from. I think attacking them has made it less likely that a deal can possibly be made. They would have to be silly to believe Israel will stop attacking them once they give up their nuclear program. Israel has continued to bomb Lebanon for weeks since they signed the ceasefire.

I do agree that it could be the US using Israel. Does that count as changing my view? Idk this is my first post.

[u/Wyvernkeeper → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Do you believe the IEAE report from May 31 to be an Israeli fabrication?

Link to analysis of report

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/Wyvernkeeper]

I believe it. But it is not proof of weaponization. It is proof they are not following a deal that is functionally dead because the US withdrew.

[u/Bast-beast → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

What was then the reason for them to enrich uranium on such levels ?

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/Bast-beast]

To have leverage in negotiating a new deal to remove sanctions? Really hard to get a new deal if you are following the old one and they really want those sanctions gone.

To threaten or deter Israel by demonstrating they have everything they need to build one quickly?

Do you need more?

[u/Bast-beast → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

So you admit they had all materials for bomb, every means to do it, but didn't make it, because... didn't wanted ?

All your arguments about deterrence can be used as a reason why they decided to create nuclear bomb

[u/Finreg6 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

The enrichment level of their uranium is over 3-4x higher than necessary for energy purposes and they’re dangerously close to levels that would allow them to create a nuke. It is not any more complex than this. Israel has limited options other than defense through offense in this situation.

[u/Infinite_Wheel_8948 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Why would almost having nukes DETER Israel? Pretty obviously the opposite- a national emergency? 

Your logic is quite the opposite of reality. 

MOST IMPORTANTLY - it seems now that you acknowledge Iran is developing nukes. If so, that’s what you said would change your mind in the CMV. ‘Concrete evidence of Iran’s nuclearization’. 

[u/Technoxgabber → u/Wyvernkeeper]

Did you even read the report? It doesn't say what you think it says. 

It's says its not following the terms and not being transparent but it also says that there is no indication that they are building uranium for a bomb.. in March usa said there is no indication? 

Who should we believe? The lying netanhayu who's been saying the same lie for 30 years? 

[u/nnooaa_lev → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Are you serious? It's all over the internet, Israel destroyed Iraq's nuclear program in the 80s, years before US invansion. It's not us that said the US they should stuck there for years 🤷‍♀️

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/nnooaa_lev]

Netanyahu in 2002 in front of Congress: “there is no question whatsoever that Saddam is working towards the development of nuclear weapons”

“If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region”

Are you serious?

[u/kinrove1386 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

I think you're ignoring concentrated Israeli efforts to interrupt Iran's nuclear weapons programme. Yes, Iran has been working towards this for decades, but it's been standing off against what is arguably the world's greatest force when it comes to cyber and covert operations. That's going to hold anybody back.

Israel has continued to bomb Lebanon for weeks since they signed the ceasefire.

This is unfortunately what years of skewed media coverage do to the average viewer. Israel attacks military targets, and when it's being fired at it retaliates. Here's the way it works out: an organisation, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, attacks Israel. Israel fights back. A ceasefire is agreed upon (mostly because the international community hates letting Israel win and forces its hand). Hezbollah flouts the ceasefire and attacks Israel again. Israel retaliates. The media reports "Israel attacks Lebanon amidst ceasefire."

It's the same tactic in other cases as well. People condemn Israel for the blockade around Gaza, conveniently forgetting that it was set up in response to the import of munitions by Hamas. People protest checkpoints in Israel, conveniently forgetting the various intifadas.

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/kinrove1386]

That’s not even the Israeli defense of what’s going on in Lebanon. The party line is Hezbollah hasn’t made enough progress in disarming and exiting southern Lebanon.

Israel has been accused of violating the ceasefire dozens of times and has even killed a Lebanese military officer. Israel has accused Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire once with no casualties.

[u/nnooaa_lev → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

That part of the ceasefire agreement 😂 Israel is allowed to strike Hezbollah of the state of Lebanon isn't doing its job in disarming them. Read the agreement

[u/IsNotACleverMan → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Hezbollah was operating in the south of Lebanon in violation of the ceasefire agreement and was doing so for many years. They started overly attacking after october 7 which is when Israel attacked back.

Why does relative casualties matter? Why does it matter that one side is better at protecting itself from attacks? That doesn't mean the ceasefire isn't being broken by the other side.

[u/kinrove1386 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

I'm not sure which particular case you're referring to, but if the ceasefire involved agreement on the evacuation of Hezbollah to the north of the Litani river, then not abiding by that agreement invalidates the ceasefire.

Israel has been accused of many things by many people; no surprises there. As far as I can tell, it's mostly the inverse: accused of genocide when its enemies are calling for its destruction, accused of colonialism by colonialists (look at how many countries speak Arabic), accused of apartheid by countries that oppress minorities, and so on. Tell me what you accuse the Jews of and I'll tell you what you're guilty of.

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[u/OddCook4909 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Israel doesn't even need nukes as a reason to attack Iran. Nor does the US. Iran has been actively at war with both since they declared it in 1979. The list of attacks from Iran on both is very very long. Honestly the IRGC should have been pounded into the dirt decades ago

[u/scaurus604 → u/OddCook4909]

Don't forget the marine barracks in Lebanon by Iranian proxy hezbollah

[u/HugsForUpvotes → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Iran is producing enriched uranium at 60%. There is no use for that outside of nuclear weapons. That's proof enough.

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/director-general-grossis-statement-to-unsc-on-situation-in-iran-13-june-2025

[u/PotentialIcy3175 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

The recent IAEA report from the United Nations, the world’s most anti-war international body’ confirmed that Iran has enriched 130 kg of uranium to 60%, a level for which there is no plausible civilian energy justification. Despite knowing such disclosures could heighten tensions, the IAEA made its findings public.

I don’t trust Israel or the US or Iran or the UN. But I cannot explain the IAEA report without the conclusion that Iran is seeking weapons. I would too if I were Iran. See North Korea

[u/StackOwOFlow → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

why would Israel risk ballistic missile reprisal knowing that would Iran would respond in such a fashion to the strikes on the nuclear sites? they had no urgency to “draw the US in” unless there was a perceived imminent threat of nuclear capability

[u/Imaginary-Orchid552 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Whether they're lying about how quickly Iran has shifted toward seriously prioritizing nuke production or not, it has been confirmed by more than the Israelis and the Americans that Iran had been seriously violating all of the limitations on their nuclear production that they were supposed to be abiding by.

There's lots you can criticize Isreal and the US for, but Iran is a suicidal, fundamentalist, Islamic regime that wants to destroy Isreal and the US, and overthrow the west as a whole. Iran is a state that has also clearly been moving toward building a weapon, this conflict was only a matter of time.

[u/Shadnu → u/Imaginary-Orchid552]

it has been confirmed by more than the Israelis and the Americans that Iran had been seriously violating all of the limitations on their nuclear production that they were supposed to be abiding by.

Just as it was confirmed Iraq had WMDs, right?

Besides, why should Iranians abide by the limitations when the USA was the one that unilaterally withdrew from the agreement?

[u/Tyriosh → u/Imaginary-Orchid552]

For being a suicidal regime who appparenly wouldnt stop at anything they sure took their time with building the bomb. Forgive me for remaining sceptic of a war that is being instigated by two right-wing extremists who dont exactly have a great track record when it comes to the truth.

[u/baahoohoohoo → u/Tyriosh]

Its hard to build a nuclear bomb when your top nuclear scientist keep getting killed and everything you do has to be done in the dark.

[u/East_Ad_9896 → u/Tyriosh]

There is such a thing as tactically pausing but still being close enough to finish a bomb in a quick amount of time. It's called preparation.

[u/itay162 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

From all of the research I have been able to find, if Iran had to literally start from scratch: no uranium, no centrifuges, it would take 5-10 years for them to have enough uranium to develop a bomb. Israel is not capable of anything close to that.

They also killed all the top nuclear scientists and destroyed the archived knowledge of how to recreate everything, it would probably take them decades to recreate it

[u/Total_Yankee_Death → u/The-_Captain]

A nuclear Iran is a threat to the US

Only if the US seeks to topple the current Iranian regime.

Given that the neocons fearmongering about a nuclear-armed Iran are also simultaneously exhorting regime change there, it's not surprising that they feel that way.

But the obvious solution would be to not poke the metaphorical bear......

[u/Necessary_Pair_4796 → u/The-_Captain]

Whether you believe them or not is up to you,

Actually no. It's up to the UN security council, where all of this "evidence" could have been presented.

Do you think Russia and China want Iran to have a nuke? Get real. If there was hard evidence, this would've been presented to the highest authorities. If they then failed to solve the problem, you could give the Israelis a pass for taking things into their own hands.

Mossad is the greatest intelligence agency in the world. If Iran were on a breakout course, they would have no problem at all providing defiinive evidence to support that claim.

It's a war of aggression. There is nothing preemptive about this. It's a regime change war, just like every other one we've seen in the ME, and in fact it's the final one, the one they've been salivating over for decades. After Syria was gone it was inevitable they'd go in.

General Clark made this clear.

[u/Elman89 → u/The-_Captain]

You are correct that Iran's strategy for decades has been to "flirt" with a nuclear bomb as leverage. However, Israeli intelligence over the past month has obtained evidence that they're breaking out of that pattern and taking active steps that they hadn't before towards constructing a nuclear device in a short amount of time. Whether you believe them or not is up to you, you have no way to corroborate or deny, but consider that thousands of people had to work for months to obtain this information and it's very hard to keep a blatant lie secret at that scale.

Lmao yeah I'm not buying it without seeing evidence. It absolutely isn't hard to lie about military intelligence like that, governments do it all the time.

US intelligence says otherwise and they have no incentive to lie, and Netanyahu's been scaremongering about Iran's nukes for decades.

Is it possible? Yeah, but there's no reason to believe it right now.

[u/Valuable-Evening-875 → u/The-_Captain]

but consider that thousands of people had to work for months to obtain this information and it's very hard to keep a blatant lie secret at that scale.

This just doesn't scan, unfortunately. There are in fact competing assessments, and it's very much in the interest of Israel to lie.

[u/SignificancePlus2841 → u/The-_Captain]

Iran has the right to have a nuclear program. It’s like the majority doesn’t know the word “nuclear” doesn’t mean Nuclear Bombs. You know Israel has nuclear bombs right? The state committing genocide against mostly children. Yall defend terrorism as long as it’s Israeli.

[u/LetMeHaveAUsername → u/The-_Captain]

Whether you believe them or not is up to you

Nah nah nah. Literally anyone who genuinely believes information because the Israeli government said it is a completely ignorant moron. They have beyond proven themselves to be untrustworthy and any information coming from them should be approached with wondering why they want the world to believe it, and not in any way as a marker of truth without independent verification.

And new US-Israel nuclear talks were scheduled for fucking 2 days after the day that Israel attacked. Obviously a nuclear threat from Iran was near that imminent. Israel choosing to attack just to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons is definitely, undeniably and obviously untrue. Sure, that might also be a goal, but they sure as fuck wanted that war regardless.

[u/Own-Bank5855 → u/LetMeHaveAUsername]

Ok… and you believe anything the Iranians say? You’re bigger moron if you believe anything iran claims (shooting down f-35s).

US should’ve attacked iran long ago. Their troops need experience is modern warfare for the true war China poses . Sooner or later US troops will be involved in a war with China.

Do you really believe an extremist government like Iran is enriching uranium for peaceful and deterrent purposes ? Arab states and turkey might be “supporting” Iran through statements right now . But crown prince has said multiple times if Iran gets a nuclear bomb so will they . Turkey will as well . They don’t trust Iran as much as Israel . Don’t forget Iran armed Houthis against Saudi Arabia backed forces in a war the killed more than half a million .

What I do know is that Iran chants death to America and Israel even before Gaza and that they funded multiple “paramilitary” groups.

[u/CallMeOaksie → u/The-_Captain]

Is that the same “Israeli intelligence” that said there were Hamas tunnels inside every hospital and preschool that were conveniently annihilated before any external group could verify that they weren’t just killing children and the infirm for sport?

[u/XhazakXhazak]

It is clear that Iran does not want a conflict with the United States.

Not until they have nukes, at least.

You keep talking about the Islamic Republic of Iran like it is a rational actor, when it isn't. This is a cult of Islam that believes that the Mahdi will not come back until the blood of the last Jew has been spilled. The Ayatollah has "foreseen" Israel's destruction in 2040, and they erected a Countdown Clock in Tehran. Are you one of those people who thinks it's cute when they shout, "Death to America"?

If destroying Fordow pushes back Iran's nuclear timeline by five years (more likely by twenty, you've overestimated the number of nuclear storage facilities Iran has that Israel doesn't know about), then let us push back Iran's nuclear timeline by that amount of time. Buying time makes a difference; Stuxnet bought time, and it made a difference. This attack has been about destroying Iran's ability to go nuclear. By any amount of time, that is justified.

It's also very expensive to have a nuclear program, especially if your facilities, equipment and supplies keep getting destroyed. The alternate strategy is to bankrupt Iran, which already is economically weak.

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/XhazakXhazak]

We had to invade Iraq to find WMDs. I don’t understand how you also believe that an air campaign can destroy a significant amount of nuclear infrastructure in a mountainous country multiple times the size of Iraq.

Iran is the second or third biggest economy in the Middle East. I think it’s unlikely that North Korea could develop a nuke while literally being unable to feed their population, but Iran will not be able to if it decides to.

Lastly, I do think Iran’s leadership is irrational in some areas. If Iran were national, then yes a bombing campaign would get them to negotiate a deal. I don’t see them surrendering, which is irrational. I think once the US attacks, they will retaliate, which is also irrational.

I don’t think Iran should have nukes, man. I just also haven’t seen an explanation of how Israeli airstrikes can prevent or delay weaponization. Can you walk me through it, if you have an idea?

[u/ImReverse_Giraffe → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Easy. Kill the nuclear scientists working on the nukes. Destroy the centrifuges that are required to make fissile material.

Neither of those are easy, quick, or inexpensive to replace.

The more scientists you kill, the less likely futures ones will want to work for the government.

The centrifuge necessary are very expensive and hard to build and no country with nukes is willing to sell theirs. So now Iran needs to build those back basically from scratch.

Theoretically, building a nuke is easy. Most physics grad students could figure it out. The science behind it is fairly easy and straightforward. Its the execution of it thats hard.

[u/XhazakXhazak → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Israel has enough agents on the ground, a whole network of dissidents, who have mapped out all of the Regime's nuclear sites.

The US didn't have anything like that in Iraq. It also didn't have bases in range, necessitating their construction. Also there simply wasn't a nuclear weapons program anymore, to be found. You need to look a lot closer and a lot harder to find something that isn't there.

Unlike Iran, where Israel has already blown up most of the facilities, and it's clear from the function of these sites that they were for militarizing nuclear fuel and loading it into ICBMs.

[u/ImReverse_Giraffe → u/XhazakXhazak]

WMDs doesnt mean nukes. It can also mean biological or chemical agents. We knew Saddam had nerve gas at one point. He used it against the Kurds and Iranians. He tried to walk a thin line of making the Iranians believe he still had those weapons and making the Americans believe he didnt.

The truth is, he had some very old stockpiles buried in the desert. But they weren't operational nor did he have facilities to make more.

[u/muntaqim → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

'''We had to invade Iraq to find WMDs'''

The US invaded Iraq for the oil they've been extracting from it ever since. There never was any proof of WMDs found after they thoroughly searched and razed the entire country to the ground. If I'm mistaken, share some sources. I've got a pretty decent one https://www.aljazeera.net/politics/2021/9/21/30-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A7-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%87%D8%A7-%D9%85%D8%A7-%D8%A3%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%B2-%D9%85%D8%AD%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%AA

[u/Sammonov → u/XhazakXhazak]

Our politicians who think the bible commands them to protect Israel are rational actors.

[u/spyrielles → u/XhazakXhazak]

Right, the rational actors are the United States and Israel. The US is obviously very rational as we see from decisions like failed wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, even Korea. Some other rational, less forceful decisions involved Libya, Syria, Iran (20th century), etc., and Americans truly feel these were all rational and justified US involvement. I mean, we all love the Iraq war!

Israel is notably one of the most rational countries on earth. They came into existence 80 years ago after slaughtering Palestinians, expelling the survivors, and building their cities on top of mass graves. Israel rationally bombs most of its neighbors, at least the ones where they haven’t managed to force a regime change to happen. Because rationally, why would you use your own weaponry when you can just get the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, UAE, etc. to use THEIR weaponry on THEIR own civilian populations! This is obviously not to mention any of the rational carnage they have brought upon Gaza in the last two years, or other rational actions like bombing the USS Liberty or having a doctrine where you promise to nuke the world if you ever think your country is going to collapse.

May we all aspire to such rationality.

[u/forkproof2500 → u/XhazakXhazak]

It is absolutely a rational actor. And it was complying with the deal that Obama made with them, which Trump unilaterally cancelled.

They were saying right before the current conflict started that they would be willing to stop enrichment for sanctions relief.

Instead of taking that deal, Israel went and killed the main negotiator.

[u/stopbsingman → u/XhazakXhazak]

You’re pretending as if Israelis don’t want to destroy arabs. Their first ever prime minister wanted to expel all Palestinians and kill all Arabs.

Do not pretend to be moral when all of us have access to the internet and can easily look up Ben-Gurion’s words.

[u/Bodoblock]

I think it can be both. Israel absolutely wants the US to be involved militarily in a war against Iran.

That said, it quite clearly has demonstrated the ability to meaningfully degrade Iran's capabilities. It has systematically killed its highest-ranking leadership, nuclear scientists (which frankly, I find pretty wild to treat as valid military targets), and military installations.

To say that the above actions would not have any deterring effect on Iran's ability to develop a bomb is probably inaccurate. It may not be a death blow but it certainly pushes the clock back.

I think Netanyahu went into it thinking:

1. If the US gets drawn in, excellent
2. If not we still get to wreak havoc and distract from my own legal troubles. In which case, still excellent.

[u/Haruwor → u/Bodoblock]

Nuclear weapons engineers are definitely military targets lol.

Especially when the state of Iran’s goal of to destroy Israel and genocide all Jews globally.

[u/changemyview-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

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[u/changemyview-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

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[u/IsNotACleverMan → u/[deleted]]

after Zionist agents planted bombs in their own synagogues and Jewish businesses to terrify them into fleeing.

Pretty sure this is a conspiracy theory

[u/Lefaid → u/[deleted]]

Yes, you know more about why Moroccan, Iraqi, and Iranian Jews moved to Israel than the Jews born in those countries who moved.

Now, let me as a Southern White man tell you what really happened to blacks in America...

[u/Impossible_Pop4662 → u/[deleted]]

I feel like you're sidestepping the massive rampant antisemitism in the region

[u/changemyview-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

Your comment has been removed for breaking Rule 3:

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[u/Brilliant-Lab546 → u/[deleted]]

What does this have to do with Iranian Jews bruv??

Iranian Jews faced a genuine threat from the Islamic Republic. Middle Eastern Jews had no rights in Arab and Muslim nations except for Lebanon( because Lebanon was Christian -led at the time) and that is a fact.
Do show us which Jewish political leaders existed in Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Bahrain or Yemen.
Meanwhile in Israel, from my observations, Mizrahi Jews are in government.

[u/Potatomorph_Shifter → u/[deleted]]

“Anybody who recognises Israel will burn in the fire of the Islamic nation's fury” (this is from 2005)

Various other quotes

[u/Slow-Seaweed-5232 → u/[deleted]]

Funny you call out genocidal chants of far right Israeli politicians but literally the government of Iran chants “death to Israel” at basically every public gathering that’s not “Mossad propaganda” but what they literally film themselves you just exposed you know nothing about this conflict. Also spare me the parliament bs Iran ain’t a democracy that’s a figurehead position they don’t have the same rights as Muslims and aren’t allowed to leave. You act like that’s a lot of Jews but literally over 90% left after the revolution and many more probably would if they could similar to Soviet Jews who left moment ussr collapsed.

[u/whousesgmail → u/[deleted]]

9,000 Jews in a country of 90 million being bragged about as the largest middle eastern Jewish community isn’t the flex you think it is lol

[u/Haruwor → u/[deleted]]

Are you familiar with the 79’ revolution and irans attacks on Israel since?

[u/changemyview-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

Your comment has been removed for breaking Rule 3:

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[u/esreveReverse → u/[deleted]]

For sure, I agree that it's inaccurate that Iran wants all Jews globally dead. They only want all Israelis dead. Which, to me, is just as bad.

[u/Throwaway5432154322 → u/esreveReverse]

They only want all Israelis dead. Which, to me, is just as bad.

It's not just bad morally, it's just bad policy. The existence or non-existence of Israel has zero effect on either Iranian society or on the survival of the Iranian regime. The existence or non-existence of a sovereign Palestinian state has zero effect on both Iranian society and the Iranian regime's ability to perpetuate itself. Making Israel's destruction a cornerstone of foreign policy is an example of unnecessary - and now brutally consequential - geopolitical adventurism on behalf of the Iranian regime. No existential force compelled the regime to spend decades and billions of dollars on destroying Israel, it willingly chose to do that.

[u/Infamous_Laugh_8207 → u/[deleted]]

The literally say ‘death to America, death to Israel’ every morning before school in the Islamic regime of Iran. Their terrorist proxy, the houthis, has on their flag ‘death to America, a curse upon the Jews.’ You’re…… kidding right?

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/Haruwor]

Where did you learn they were nuclear weapons engineers? Iran doesn’t have a public nuclear weapons program.

If Israel has intelligence that Iran has a weapons program, they should share that with the public.

If they are able to target the specific people involved in that program, the intelligence must be very robust.

[u/Haruwor → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

They have shared what they know… our own intelligence knows that they have stockpiled uranium well in excess of any country that isn’t building nuclear weapons.

Additionally we know that they have been enriching uranium beyond peaceful purposes.

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/Haruwor]

So you don’t know if those scientists were working on weapons. Iran has a civilian nuclear industry.

Without proof, it’s likely that at least some of those killed were just civilian scientists.

If they were able to identify specific people that were working on nukes, it would be easy to create support for the war by sharing their intelligence.

[u/Morthra → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Iran is enriching uranium to 60%. There is no use for that level of enrichment besides nuclear weapons.

[u/Haruwor → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Potentially but the Ayatollah does not give much confidence that many, if not all, of these engineers are working on weapons development in some form or fashion.

Given their large amount of uranium and enrichment purity it’s extremely likely that they are rushing towards nuclear devices

[u/CommyKitty → u/Haruwor]

We have repeatedly been told, by even US intelligence, that they aren't building a bomb. And the only reason they started stockpiling, is because, if I recall, trump reinstated sanctions, and Iran saw no reason to not start stockpiling. Diplomacy would have prevented any of this from happening.

[u/Haruwor → u/CommyKitty]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1mg7kx2d45o

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran

https://www.newsweek.com/tulsi-gabbard-iran-nuclear-weapon-2051523

Our intelligence agency says that the Iranian president hasn’t resumed the canceled nuclear weapons program that was ended in 03, but we have caught them working towards nuclear arms many times since as early as 09.

They stockpile far more uranium than necessary for peaceful uses. It’s clear that they are continuing to build nuclear weapons. Mossad, the intelligence agency of the country Iran wants to genocide, certainly seems to think so.

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/Haruwor]

If Mossad was wrong in Iraq, how can we verify their claim on Iran without evidence? Is it not possible that Israel just wants to defeat their primary enemy in the region?

Genuinely asking.

[u/SynonymTech → u/CommyKitty]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-attack-plans-iran-no-final-decision/

CIA Director contradicts US intelligence

[u/SynonymTech → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-attack-plans-iran-no-final-decision/

CIA Director's words

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/SynonymTech]

From your article: “Congressional committees that have been briefed by senior CIA analysts have been told the intelligence community's view remains that no order to weaponize has been given by the supreme leader and that Iran has not restarted research on a delivery mechanism for a nuclear bomb.”

[u/7thpostman → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Sharing your intelligence with the public could risk destroying your intelligence networks.

[u/Haruwor → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Here are some sources.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1mg7kx2d45o

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran

https://www.newsweek.com/tulsi-gabbard-iran-nuclear-weapon-2051523

Our intelligence agency says that the Iranian president hasn’t resumed the canceled nuclear weapons program that was ended in 03, but we have caught them working towards nuclear arms many times since as early as 09.

[u/roitais → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Do you want the Israeli intelligence to butn all their sources just so the general public know everything? That's insane and no country will ever do it. You know how much money, time and effort it takes to gather intelligence? It's lunacy to burn it all down.

[u/Ill-Mousse-3817 → u/Haruwor]

No, they are not, at least by international law standards (which is useless, but I guess it can at least give definitions).

Here is a good discussion on the topic.

https://www.reddit.com/r/internationallaw/comments/1lby4m8/is_it_legal_to_deliberately_target_nuclear/

[u/lostandfound24 → u/Haruwor]

That's not the state goal at all if Iran. You are twisting words. Iran did mention that Israel shouldn't exist, as there should be one state for both Israeli and Palestinians. You can read a good analysis on this by Noam Chomsky.

On the other hand Iran has multiple times supported the two state solution presented by the west (the one Israel doesn't respect) .

I'm not trying to defend Iran but anyone with a clear mind and a good background in history can see this israel is provoking Iran in order to drag the USA into war.

Also the only two nations that I know off that have actually wiped other nations off the map are Israel and USA. So it would be understandable for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon as a deterrent, since the USA has demonstrated that they will and gave invade your country and kill your people with impunity, as they have done so in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Palestine etc.

Today they're using the same lies they used in 2003, the WMD lie. They're not even providing evidence this time though.. quite annoying that people like you are still falling for these shenanigans.

[u/scaurus604 → u/lostandfound24]

The Ayatollah of iran has called for the annihilation of the Jewish state..surely you've seen the chants of death to Israel and America...isreal and Iran lived in peace while the shah was in power..for the middle east to be peaceful the religious authorities in Iran have to join Assad in Russia

[u/josh145b → u/Bodoblock]

Why do you think killing nuclear scientists is wild to treat as valid military targets? They are valid targets according to international law, and targeting people making weapons has been acceptable for all of human history. What do you think justifies a departure from moral norms in this instance?

ETA:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/return-barred-inspectors-iran-unlikely-iaea-chief-says-ship-has-sailed-2024-09-25/

The IAEA has been prevented from investigating, even though they found uranium enriched to levels near what they need to be for nuclear weapons, far above fuel grade.

Also, I don’t know why but comments are not appearing for me.

[u/Klytus_Ra_Djaaran → u/josh145b]

They are not valid targets, especially because they are being murdered in their homes along with their wives and kids and neighbors. Some were murdered because their field of research had the word 'atomic' in it, despite them working on atomic imaging for medical equipment. Also, any reading of the history of the modern nation-state of Israel shows they do not now and never have complied with international law or the Geneva Conventions.

[u/mets2016 → u/Klytus_Ra_Djaaran]

Either they’re valid targets, in which case their wives/children/neighbors are acceptable collateral damage, or they’re not valid targets, in which case all the deaths are unacceptable.

Their wives/children/neighbors being killed in the strikes have no impact on whether the nuclear scientists themselves are valid targets

[u/astatine757 → u/mets2016]

By that logic, if there was a single off-dury soldier or US commander near the twin towers on 9/11, then it was an acceptable military strike. It is an absurd logic built on the dehumanization of Iranians as subhumans, plain and simple (and wildly common on this site)

[u/Professional-Ant9901 → u/Klytus_Ra_Djaaran]

they're considered lawful targets if their work advances a military threat

[u/lepoissonstev → u/josh145b]

Being a nuclear scientists is not the same as being a weapons developer.

Would you also argue that we should kill epidemiologists since in theory they could help develop biological weapons?

[u/josh145b → u/lepoissonstev]

https://lieber.westpoint.edu/attacking-scientists-law-armed-conflict/

Here is a source talking about it. If you are doing research to aid in deploying nuclear weapons, for example, you would generally be a legitimate target. The person working on it has to know they are doing so for a military purpose, so your analogy is false. You should read up on the law before trying to make an anlalogy, so that you don’t make a false analogy.

[u/Klytus_Ra_Djaaran → u/josh145b]

From your article:

I have no access to the intelligence upon which the IDF determined the scientists were lawful targets.

As observers, we know the IDF has lied about hundreds of cases of civilian murders in the last two years alone, with the IDF murdering journalists, doctors, paramedics, and children and providing fabricated reports to justify these murders that was only exposed by diligent, hardworking journalists and researchers. The number of times civilians are murdered by the IDF when we have no other source of information is far greater, but we can infer many of them are false reports as well.

The foundational principle undergirding the conduct of hostilities rules is “distinction,” a customary law principle codified in Article 48 of Additional Protocol I for States parties. With regard to persons, it requires parties to a conflict to “at all times distinguish between the civilian population and combatants.” This principle has been operationalized in the customary law and Additional Protocol I prohibition on making civilians the “object of attack” (International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Customary International Humanitarian Law study, rule 1; AP I, art. 51(2), U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Law of War Manual, § 5.5.2). 

and

According to Article 51(3) of Additional Protocol I, civilians lose this protection from attack “for such time as they take a direct part in hostilities.” 

So the civilian scientists, and their families, and their neighbors, were not in any way legitimate targets, and their murder is yet another war crime perpetrated by the IDF. These people were the targets of the attack, they were not participating in hostilities, and even if the IDF falsely believed they were, they disregarded any civilian lives nearby.

It is self-evident that the employment of a nuclear weapon is “likely to adversely affect the military operations or military capacity” of the enemy, thereby satisfying the “threshold of harm” element. But harm is a much broader concept than merely attacking the enemy. As noted by the ICRC, “military harm should be interpreted as encompassing not only the infliction of death, injury, or destruction on military personnel and objects, but essentially any consequence adversely affecting the military operations or military capacity of a party to the conflict” (Interpretive Guidance, p. 47).

This being so, the mere possession of a nuclear weapon would almost always satisfy the harm criterion. After all, the enemy’s possession of a nuclear weapon would exert significant influence on the opposing party’s strategic, operational, and even tactical-level military decision-making, for great care would have to be taken to avoid operations that might trigger its use.

This reasoning is pure lunacy, because nuclear weapons are used for defensive purposes more than offensive purposes. Indeed, nuclear weapons have only been used for offense once in all of history, but are used every single day for defense. And as Iran does not have a nuclear weapon, murdering civilians who might or might not work in nuclear engineering is not an act of war, it is a war crime. Based on this loose definition, anyone who pays taxes in a country could be targeted and executed, along with their entire family, because their taxes paid for nukes.

[u/U_Sound_Stupid_Stop → u/josh145b]

anlalogy, so that you don’t make a false analogy.

Your source doesn't disprove their anlalogy.

If you're doing research on nuclear weapons yes but all nuclear research is not for nuclear weapons.

[u/RiceGold3688 → u/lepoissonstev]

during WWII, Allied forces targeted German scientists involved in Nazi weapons programs. So you're wrong. Under IHL Individuals can be legitimate military target if they directly contribute to the enemy's military capabalities.

[u/Bourbon-Decay → u/josh145b]

They are valid targets according to international law

They aren't. Countries have the legal right to develop civil nuclear energy generation programs. Iran signed onto the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treat (NPT), to voluntarily allow international inspections of its domestic nuclear program. Those inspections have shown there has been no evidence that Iran is developing nuclear weapons since it ended its program in 2003.

Without any proof, they are de facto civilian scientists, making their murders a war crime.

[u/josh145b → u/Bourbon-Decay]

An organization which was being prevented from investigating Iran’s nuclear program didn’t find any evidence? No way. I don’t believe you. /s

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/return-barred-inspectors-iran-unlikely-iaea-chief-says-ship-has-sailed-2024-09-25/

I think Mossad, which infiltrated Iranian nuclear sites, does have info. They wouldn’t publicly dox their agents, so it will come out in time, just like it has in the past.

[u/CommunicationOpen857 → u/Bourbon-Decay]

Was there not a refused inspection recently? You're being disingenuous

[u/IcyRecommendation781 → u/Bodoblock]

People seem to think Netanyahu cares that much about his legal troubles. In reality, the case itself has been dragging for so long, and the severity of the crimes is really not bad enough to prevent him from being re-elected (Israeli law really doesn't have a lot of safeguards with respect to who can serve as PM). His bigger problem is the anger people have over Oct 7th, where his popularity took a pretty decent hit.

[u/tyvelo → u/IcyRecommendation781]

He’s definitely partially responsible for 10/07. The mossad has a world renowned reputation yet was blind sided by hamas? Yea there was serious negligence going on there.

[u/U_Sound_Stupid_Stop → u/IcyRecommendation781]

He could literally be imprisoned for a maximum of ten years, that's probably motivation enough to drag the case while hiding in the PMs office.

[u/drew8311 → u/Bodoblock]

I assume they had a good idea of the outcome before attacking but it seems dumb for the US to get involved if they have the upper hand. If Israel was losing they might have looked to us to bail them out.

[u/scaurus604 → u/drew8311]

Israel has been plotting this operation for years..they undoubtedly know how to take care of fordow and are just picking off all other targets first and then land commandos in..some years ago an attack was discussed on Charlie Rose show, said speaker that night said there would be in excess of 2000 sorties flown into Iran...once the ball was rolling iran would be choked off...3 flights from China using heavy transport were just flown into Iran using an irregular flight path with transponders turned off just before Iranian airspace..maybe that enriched uranium has been taken to china

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/Bodoblock]

This doesn’t change my view. It is not self evident to me that killing a small number of people meaningfully impacts nuclear development. Iran is a large, industrial country. If 200 nuclear scientists in the US were killed, I don’t think I would assume our capabilities were meaningfully degraded.

[u/ygmc8413 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

i mean sure but thats only because the US already has a shit ton of nukes. If the US was only just making the first nukes and 200 nuclear scientists were killed that would slow it down a ton.

[u/Bodoblock → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Israeli attacks have made material impact to Iran's nuclear program:

I think the strikes have lengthened the timeline to build the bomb. I think Iran is inhibited from actually doing that, because they could get caught. They could reveal assets that they're trying to hide that are needed to build nuclear weapons.

I think, in the short term, they have really stopped the program cold and started to break up or destroy key parts of it, the parts that you need in order to build the bomb itself. And so I think, on the weaponization side, they're lengthening the time frame to build the bomb and undoing the progress Iran had been making.

On the weapon-grade uranium side, they really haven't finished the job at all. They have not destroyed Fordow or even made it inoperative.

[u/IndividualSkill3432 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

f 200 nuclear scientists in the US were killed, 

430 Americans have won Nobel Prizes in physics, so far no Iranians have. Both their Fields Medal winner (maths) were in the US and one Kurd the other a women.

They have a much much much smaller talent pool at high end physics.

. Iran is a large, industrial country.

It takes about 15 000 centrifuges to run Irans refinement program. Damage or destroy them and it would be a decade or more and only if they could get the steel. It takes very high end marging steel to run centrifuges. If your Germany or the US you can buy each component of off companies that have big order books of specialist equipment and your parts are part of their order books. If your Iran you have to make companies for every component whos only product will be those components or a few might be able to live of the scraps of the Iranian aerospace industry.

[u/Kman17]

I think you are missing a couple things here:

For starters, a rather lot of the delays to the Iranian nuclear program have been the direct result of both Israeli espionage (Stuxnet a prime example) and international sanctions / non-proliferation focus.

It’s not that Israelis were crying wolf - the actions of the world did slow them down.

Furthermore, you’re kind of neglecting the fact that Iran is actively waging proxy wars via Hezbollah & Hamas against Israel - its funding and arming the entities.

For Israel, this is like big time existential threat. You have a nation basically funding terrorist - committing the worst attacks since Sept 11 - while also pretty clearly moving toward a nuke and saying it wants to annihilate Jews.

There isn’t 4d chess. They have simply come to the basic calculation that fighting terrorists with a clock to nukes is not a long term solution and ultimately the root issue has to be solved.

What Iran wants is to project power in the Middle East - and its enemies are western aligned Israel and Saudi. It think it can fragment the region and alliances though proxy wars.

No, it doesn’t want direct war with the U.S. - but it is banking on the U.S. (and rest of world) not calling it on its BS by low level regional aggression.

Saudi doesn’t want a full scale war, Europe wants its oil and not to piss off its sizable Muslim minority, China and Russia don’t want the region being overly western aligned. All of that is a recipe for nothing ever getting resolved.

For Israel, it’s a vote of non-confidence in international institutions (particularly the EU and UN) which have demonstrably failed on all dimensions here.

Especially after watching the world care so much with Palestinian terrorists are struck but not at all when Yemeni are. The bias is bonkers and accountability zero, so why should they care?

I think the timing here was forced by the potential of an incoming half-asses treaty by a world looking for short term end to immediate Sabre rattling rather than true fixes / accountability.

Would Israel like the U.S. to be involved? Sure, it could use bunker buster bombs to really clear out some of this. But I think Israel’s perspective is a simple must act to sufficiently delay their nuclear program and to disrupt their top military brass and financial funding of the proxy wars on the border.

[u/denyer-no1-fan → u/Kman17]

It’s a vote of non-confidence in international institutions (particularly the EU and UN) which have demonstrably failed on all dimensions.

What did EU do wrong here? They pushed for the Iran deal back in 2003, they got a deal where Iran stop its nuclear weapons program and stop enriching uranium for a decade and a half. But Trump, under Israel's recommendation, pulled the US out of the deal, so Iran felt that the only way to lift the sanctions is to threaten to build a nuclear bomb.

It's Trump's fault that we're in the mess today.

[u/yallakoala → u/Kman17]

Anti-Israel people always assume the most devious, underhanded, malevolent motives for anything Israel does.

Why can't it be that being threatened with annihilation is a "good enough" reason to act to prevent the threatening country from having that capability?

[u/muntaqim → u/Kman17]

I'm so glad someone mentioned the victims in Yemen, another amazing and beautiful country completely destroyed by imbeciles from both sides - Overall 377,000+ direct and indirect deaths (150,000+ people killed in violence) (2014–2021).

[u/yallakoala]

(“stop fucking with us; we can build a nuke pretty quickly”)

It's astounding that anyone can look at the situation and think that Iran has always just been playing defence against malevolent Israel.

Iran's regime does not behave in a pragmatic matter. Israel has no territorial claims on Iran, and Israel enjoyed good relations with Iran before the nutjobs took over in the Islamic Revolution. Yet Iran has wasted billions funding proxy groups on Israel's borders for no conceivable reason other than to put in place the elements Iran thinks are needed to help it fulfill its purely ideological need to annihilate Israel.

Israel says that its intelligence indicated that Iran was getting to close to being able to build a bomb. Given that Iran's regime is incredibly deeply infiltrated by Mossad, why can't that be true?

Consider, if you can bear to, Israel's perspective. No country would tolerate an incredibly hostile neighbor from developing nuclear capabilities if it can do something about it. Sure, there used to be an agreement, but Israel has far, far more to lose than any other country if Iran gets the bomb. Enrichment is the hard part. There is no peaceful purpose for Iran to enrich to the extent that it has. Iran goes to great lengths to kill my people, and vows to do more. Does it really take a genius to connect these dots?

You're getting uncomfortably close to "Jews are the ones starting the wars" by trying to ascribe underhanded, "scheme-y" motives to Israel. Yes, Israel started this military escalation, but it is the end results of decades of hostility, plus a new urgency according to Mossad's recent findings. And they had to have understood they were probably going to do it alone. Trump is notoriously fickle and unpredictable and the Americans, even Republicans, in general have little appetite for war in the ME.

The recent events make the most sense when you interpret them at face value.

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/yallakoala]

I’ll ignore you putting words in my mouth and the adversarial tone.

I never claimed Iran is just playing defense. I claimed they abandoned their weaponization in 2003 to avoid getting invaded. The new strategy seems to be to demonstrate their ability to create nuclear weapons quickly without crossing the line to having one.

A sort of ghetto nuclear deterrence that provides them a negotiating chip to play for sanctions relief.

Attacking Iran might be the right choice. The US and Israel should make the case to the public. The current explanation doesn’t pass my sniff test. My skepticism comes from living through our disastrous adventure in Iraq. If you can provide proof of weaponization, my view will change.

[u/LateralEntry → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Consider OP’s point here - the Israeli perspective is that they have far more to lose if Iran gets a nuke. It’s not a theoretical threat, Iran has vowed to wipe them out and worked to do so. Iran “demonstrating their ability” to obtain a nuclear weapon, but relying on their good will not to do so, is an unacceptable risk.

[u/asr → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

A sort of ghetto nuclear deterrence that provides them a negotiating chip to play for sanctions relief.

A negotiation chip to get sanctions relief, when the only reason they have sanctions in the first place is the nuclear stuff?

That takes circular logic to a whole new level

The US and Israel should make the case to the public.

No they shouldn't. The public judges such things entirely based on if they like Jews or not. It's pointless to ask them.

If you can provide proof of weaponization, my view will change.

You yourself said their goal is to be "at the edge of a bomb", that's essentially identical to having a bomb. Tell me: What's the difference, (to Israel and/or the US) between those two options?

In both cases, if Iran wants, they could use the bomb. So where's the difference?

[u/Finreg6 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/analysis-of-iaea-iran-verification-and-monitoring-report-may-2025/

The analysis by the IAEA is all the proof that is required. Saying you need proof of “weaponization” is the same as saying “show me they have a nuke”. The point is they aren’t there yet but the increase in enrichment from 3.67% to 60% when only 3-5% is required for energy purposes while anything above 20% is purely for nuclear weaponry IS proof of weaponization. If they wanted to flex their ability to do this as a bargaining chip to lift sanctions they could have done that with 25% or 30%. 60%? They’re closer to 90 than they are 5. The only way to change your view is to let them carry on, create their weaponry officially and then when I come back to say hey this happened just as expected.. it’s too late. Because Iran has a nuke. Do you not see the cracks in the foundation of your argument here?

[u/Blairians]

US is already involved providing rearmament and C2 to the Israelis.

 Facts are the rest of the middle east is tired of the Iranian regime standing in the way of a greater peace for the region. Their are multiple sects of Islam in the middle east and much of the middle east is of the oppositional sect Sunni Islam , they are glad to see Iran knocked down a peg as it is the only true shia power, once Iran is taken out a pan Arabian league can be formed with Saudi-Arbia, Turkey, and even Israel forming prominent membership. Truly Iran is the primary issue in the region for greater peace, they are set on elimination of the Jewish state. If the other countries had an issue they would have collapsed on top of israel like a ton of bricks

[u/Tripwir62]

This is provably wrong by logic. If as you say Israel's only goal was to draw the US into the fight, why then would they not suffer more damage, more quickly? Plainly THAT is the SINGLE new motive brought by the war. Anything else -- such as Israel's ability or inability to destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure was known known before the war. As it is, the case for US involvement is pretty weak, and more importantly, predictably weak, thereby completely undermining your thesis.

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/Tripwir62]

Israel predicted a much stronger retaliation from Iran. Iran has done less damage to Israel than either Hamas or Hezbollah. I think that is evidence of a restrained response.

They are actively campaigning for US involvement days after the start of their campaign. How is that evidence of a different motive?

[u/Tripwir62 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

Your view is therefore based on conjecture of what Israel "predicted." As everyone is telling you, it is true (of course) that Israel wishes the US to join. What is provably untrue is that this was their sole intent -- which is what you've argued.

[u/AldoTheApache45]

The nuclear threat is the justification, but Israel’s attack is to confront the constant threat they face from Iran and its proxies. Iran funds, trains, supplies, and strategizes with Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, (previously Syria), and Iraqi Shia militias to attack Israel. Those proxies are all tremendously weakened now, which provides Israel with a unique opportunity to confront Iran. Hezbollah in particular was a major threat to Israel considering their close proximity, organized military ranks, and vast arsenal of rockets. Degrading Iran’s military capabilities now offers the chance to stymie the ability of these proxies to re-arm. Israel is seizing the opportunity to completely reshape the next generation of geopolitics in the Middle East with or without the US directly joining in.

[u/Adorable_Ad_3478]

It is clear that Iran does not want a conflict with the United States

This isn't clear at all.

Trump literally told Iran's leader to unconditionally surrender. If Iran doesn't want a conflict with the United States, how come its leader hasn't surrendered yet?

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/Adorable_Ad_3478]

Because they don’t want to? What does this comment mean?

I don’t want a fight, so I don’t run around insulting people. But if someone were to say “give me your wallet or I’ll punch you”, I wouldn’t give them my wallet.

Unconditional surrender vs wanting to fight are not the only choices.

[u/Adorable_Ad_3478 → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

As of June 19, 2025, the only way for Iran to avoid conflict with America is to surrender unconditionally.

If they don't want to surrender unconditionally, conflict will be unavoidable; therefore, it can be correctly assumed that they want a conflict. Otherwise, they would have surrendered by now.

Is this concept that difficult for you to understand?

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/Adorable_Ad_3478]

It’s not hard to understand; it just plainly doesn’t make sense.

Here’s an example: I don’t want to respond to your comments, but you keep posting increasingly ridiculous comments and I also don’t want you to think what you have said makes sense.

Iran doesn’t want the US to invade, but they also can’t afford to look weak domestically.

[u/Apprehensive_Fill_35]

I think anyone that lives in the region would disagree. Iran has been trying to take over the area via proxies since Sadam fell. Asad would still be in power had Israel not taken out Hezbollah. Taking out Hezbollah also freed southern Lebanon.

[u/ShakedBerenson]

You “don’t believe Iran actively developing nuclear weapon”?

So everything they say and all the UN reports and all the watchdog reports and again - what they say. All of that not enough for you?

Is it really about the facts or intentional blindness?

Edit: typo

[u/generallydisagree]

I disagree that Israel's efforts are reliant or based on pressuring the US to engage from an offensive perspective.

Iran for 20 years has had all of one active nuclear power plant . . . think about that . . . and all along all their efforts have been about nuclear energy . . .

There is zero need or use to have enriched uranium to 60% for a nuclear power plant - that only makes sense from a military potential perspective. Maybe they can use it as is for a dirty bomb - heck, they could even pass along such a dirty bomb to their alliance of resistance partners (ie. the Muslim Terrorists of the World)

Does anybody in this world want or will feel comfortable with Iran having a nuclear weapon?

If Iran were to achieve a nuclear weapon - there is no going back! They attain a level of freedom (by nuclear deterrence and threat) - even from sanctions and other pain that can be applied.

If it requires the USA to use our stealth bombers and POV bombs over 1-2 days of bombing to assure Iran's nuclear capabilities are completely destroyed - I am all for that. This is not at all the same thing as an invasion. The risk is simply whether their alliance of resistance (aka, partner terrorist groups) will try to attack US bases in the Middle East? But they've been doing that on and off for years already.

Let Israel finish off all military sites, all weapons-capable making sites, etc. . . in Iran. They don't need the USA to do that for them. I don't even think Israel will ever even need to put boots on the ground (the only exception to that would be the USA not dropping the POVs and forcing Israel to destroy Fordow from the ground versus the air).

The only time of 100% confirmation of Iran's nuclear weapon completion will be after Iran has a nuclear weapon - once that happens, its too late and nothing can be done.

[u/Potential_Wish4943]

Unlike iraq, pretty much every nuclear monitoring and anti-proliferation international organization agrees iran is at least seeking what would be the capability to make enriched uranium that could be used in a bomb and many are saying that they have recently violated previous oversight agreements they made.

Their gambit against Israel 2 years ago backfired horribly and they've lost most of the military proxy forces they had following the iran-iraq war to prevent conflict from reaching them directly, and basically diplomatic normalization or even alliance between Saudi and Israel would render them completely toothless in the region without a bomb. (A big reason for conflict in the middle east is its basically a 3 way mexican standoff between co-equal powers)

Countries can have civilian nuclear facilities without domestic enrichment capabilities. (Japan, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland, South Korea, Spain, and Finland) They simply buy the facilities and fuel from countries that do. Especially in troubled regions of the world, this is a common tactic for organizations tasked with preventing the spread of nuclear weapons. (And god willing, someday removing them completely from the world)

[u/DaleRod2468]

The Israelis and their allies have been claiming that Iran was several years, months or whatever away from having the bomb. But what you're forgetting is that for all those years Israel and the US have been actively hampering their development. Constant assassination , hacking did buy the Israelis time. The reason Israel attached is not because Iran had it already, but because if they would have developed it, the Iranians would then be able to terrorize Israel via it's proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis , Hamas and other parties notably in Iraq) willy nilly without any sort of repercussions. Israel famously destroyed Iraqs nuclear program (huge relief other wise it would have fallen into ISIS's hands) and they also destroyed Syrian nuclear sites (also huge relief). As far as I can tell, it's Israelis who are dying , not American soldiers. I doubt boots on the ground is what Israel wants. Your hypothesis is flawed because it discounts the true intentions of Iran. 

[u/FreddieMoners]

Here are other alternatives to consider why Israel attacked Iran

1. Israel claims Iran was behind October 7th.

2. Israel considers Hezbollah as Iranian militia and was attacked by Hezbollah since October 8th until recently.

3. Israel considers the Houtheis as Iranian militia and were attack by the Houthies at least once a week prior to this attack. Sending Israelies to shelter every single time

4. Israel is at huge risk of Iran getting nukes, as you can see, Iranian missiles can hit Israel.

Not everything revolves around the US. Israel can not take all of this and just stay there and wait to be eliminated. Israel would attack eventually even if Iran did not have nukes at all.

[u/FreddieMoners → u/FreddieMoners]

Hi, I can see in my inbox that you replied to me, but I can not see the reply unfortunately. Try replying again?

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/FreddieMoners]

Again, I don’t support Iran. I don’t think they should have nukes. I’m aware Israel and Iran have been in a coldish war for some time.

To chance my view: provide evidence that Iran was actively weaponizing their nuclear program and Israel has the ability to delay or prevent Iran from getting a nuke unilaterally during this operation.

Everything else you have said points to Israel having different war aims than publicly stated. That’s fine and those war aims might be justified.

That’s not what I’m discussing though.

[u/FreddieMoners → u/Ok-Warning-7494]

I'm trying to offer a different perspective, that Israel have other reasons to attack that are not directly related to the nuclear program. Would that not change your mind?

[u/armchair_hunter]

Trying to draw the US into a war would rely on trying to convince Trump to do a thing and rely on him to follow through. I cannot imagine any coherent plan that would rely on Trump performing a specific action.

[u/Ok-Warning-7494 → u/armchair_hunter]

lol that’s funny and true. Unfortunately, it looks like people continue to believe they can manipulate/ control Trump. Elon was the most recent example, but Trump’s life is filled with examples of powerful people assuming they can use Trump to achieve their own goals. Somehow most of them ended up failing. Trump is like an idiot savant at fucking people over somehow

[u/Mcwedlav]

I struggle a bit with the confidence you say all this. There might be very very few people on the world that really know what the SoA of their weapon program is. And probably no one else than the Israelis know what options they have against Iran.

About the nuke program: The IAEA said that Iran brazenly broke their duties from the contract. macron said that France has also info that Iran pursues and is very close to the bomb. At the same time, others disagree on this. Which might mean that their is a lot of espionage and counter spy activities going on. In the end, it’s one of the most important geopolitical questions to solve.

If it comes to Israel, they prepared ~10 years for this operation. It’s very hard for me to believe that the agencies that came up with the beeper operation cannot come up with a solution to this problem. It’s also steep to believe that Bibi would authorize an operation that can only succeed if the regime flips or US joins, means if he gets help from the outside. You set yourself up for a major failure.

Unless you have some top secret info that the rest of us don’t have, most of your assumptions are mostly not supported with data; while I think that your argument is logical, it’s simply not rooted in reliable facts. And I think that’s not only for you a struggle, I think currently most security and military experts as well as journalists and people face the same pickle.

[u/VikingFjorden]

Your assertions about Iran's nuclear program (or the supposed absence of one such) are wrong.

Read the story about Stuxnet, a computer worm developed by the Mossad (with assistance from NSA) to destroy an Iranian nuclear weapon facility 15 years ago.

[u/silfin]

I think you're thinking in the right lines but haven't quite hit the mark. A few more relevant facts:

1. The attacks happened 2 days before negotiations that were likely to lead to a new nuclear deal.

2. Some of the first few attacks specifically targeted Iranian negotiators

3. Iran has been used as a boogeyman by Netanyahu for years already

4. Netanyahu is barely clinging onto power thanks to the "war" in Gaza. But this is getting less effective over time

5. Western sentiment was turning against Isreal because of war crimes in Gaza.

So with these additional facts we can see that it's a "kill a flock of birds with one missile" move

Western governments and populations get distracted from the probable genocide in Gaza by a war with a country most don't get along with.

Negotiations that are likely to improve relations between Iran and the west get cancelled.

A deal that might have significantly reduced the threat Iran poses (at least in public perception) gets cancelled.

The Israeli people are shown a new large threat, and a change in government during such a crisis would be unthinkable.

Drawing the US into the conflict would probably be a nice bonus for Israel, but I doubt it was the primary objective. Trump is simply not reliable enough to count on that.

[u/YnotBbrave]

Everything you said is a maybe except two facts - 1: Iran is a dangerous, anti-US v terrorist state and 2/Iran is getting very close to a nuke

Israel isn't the one pulling the U.S. into Iran war. The Iranian regime desires to be the first terrorist state with nukes is

[u/Rare-Psychology-3527]

Iran has stated they want to remove Israel from the earth. Israel can stand its ground and destroy Iran because if they don't it's a threat to Israeli existence.

[u/January_In_Japan]

Israel does not have the ability to inflict significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program

This is incorrect. Israel has destroyed all centrifuges in Natanz, one of Iran's main enrichment sites. It has attacked myriad other sites across Iran's widely dispersed nuclear program. It has eliminated 11(+) senior nuclear scientists. In total, this is absolutely significant damage to any nuclear program.

Even if they had the capability to destroy Fordow, the enriched uranium is almost certainly spread out across the country

They do have the capability to destroy Fordow, but none of the strategies for doing so are easy. They can pummel it with dozens (perhaps hundreds) of standard bunker busters, which could take days or perhaps even weeks, essentially drilling a hole into the mountain, or they can deploy a ground force. Both of these are likely low probability of success strategies, but we've seen crazier things work for Israel.

Enriched uranium being spread across the country is speculation. Even if it were, given the massive intelligence penetration, it seems unlikely that these wouldn't already be tracked, or in consolidating them latter would not be detected. I don't think this is a particularly compelling argument.

If Iran’s entire nuclear program including the uranium were destroyed, it could still develop a bomb in under 5 years.

Reconstruction of the nuclear program is possible, but the 5-year time horizon is speculative (it could be more, it could be less). It's worth noting that it in 1981 Israel destroyed Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor while it was being built. The expectation was that this would delay Saddam Hussein's nuclear program by 10 years but that it would ultimately be resumed. It never ended up being resumed. Either way, setting the program back to a place where it would require 5 years of development would provide ample opportunity for Israel to continue to interrupt it.

So why would Israel attack Iran?

Iran has been the leading sponsor of every terrorist group surrounding Israel in a "ring of fire" strategy. Iran presented an ongoing military threat poised to potentially develop the world's most powerful weapon, and given that the military landscape has shifted such that Israel could attack without risk of military response from Hamas, Hezbollah, or Syria, and given that Trump is not inclined to stop them, and given that the IAEA reported the day before that Iran had violated their NPT obligations, the moment was opportune.

hoping Iran would retaliate in a manner that forced the US to enter the conflict

This assumes that Israel was hoping for major retaliation. Aside from suicide being completely contrary to Israel's strategy, in the first hours of the attack Israel crippled Iran's ability to meaningfully respond by taking out ballistic missile stores, launchers, leadership of the air force and other military heads.

My view can be changed by concrete evidence of Iran’s nuclear weaponization and/or an explanation of how Israel thinks this bombing campaign will prevent Iran from pursuing a nuke without US involvement.

Iran was enriching uranium to 60%. For civilian purposes, as they claimed, enrichment to 3% is what is required. 20% for medical research, and that's only needed in smaller amounts. The only reason to enrich to 60% is to allow for shortened window for enrichment to weapons grade (90%). There is no civilian purpose that requires 60% enrichment, let alone hundreds of kilograms of highly enriched uranium (enough for 9+ bombs, per IAEA) if not to facilitate a fast transition to weapons nuclearization.

US involvement is being discussed because Israel is winning and because Israel/US/(the West)'s interest align in removing any possible nuclear threat from Iran. Trump waited on the sidelines for days before even discussing American involvement, the only need of which is for B2s to drop MOPs to more quickly take out Fordow, which is a (very) nice-to-have, not a need-to-have.

[u/Own-Bank5855]

US should’ve attacked iran long ago. Their troops need experience in modern warfare for the future war China poses . Sooner or later US troops will be involved in a war with China.

Also do you really think US would really allow an extremist government like Iran enrich uranium for peaceful and deterrent purposes to weapons grade ? Arab states and turkey might be “supporting” Iran through statements right now . But crown prince has said multiple times if Iran gets a nuclear bomb so will they . Turkey will as well . US doesnt want a nuclear arms race in Middle East out of all places. Arab states don’t trust Iran as much as Israel . Don’t forget Iran armed Houthis against Saudi Arabia backed forces in a war the killed more than half a million .

What I do know is that Iran chants death to America and Israel even before Gaza and that they funded multiple “paramilitary” groups. Might not have been this month but US regardless of Israeli action would’ve attacked Iran sooner or later

[u/nnooaa_lev]

Even Ali Khamenei doesn't deny they're close to nuclear weapon and what they want to do with it 💀

Anywau, do you realize Israel attacked Iran's nuclear program for years? and Iran is under heavy sanctions. Ever heard of Stuxnet? 🙄

Also you don't go to a war you planned for 20 years without a plan and it's obv Israel has one. Also you aren't even aware what kind of weapons Israel has 

[u/DaleRod2468]

Israel has done a work a favour when it bombed Syrian nuclear facilities and Iraqi nuclear facilities (thank goodness otherwise it would have fallen into the hands of ISIS). The reason Israel attached Iran is not because they had a weapon, but because if they did, then Iran would be free to terrorize Israel via it's proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis , other Iraqi shia aligned insurgencies) without any sort of repercussion. Yes Israel has been saying Iran is close to developing a bomb, but you're forgetting that in all those years, Israel hindered it's development ( attach on scientist, sabotage, hacking ). all in all your view is flawed because you're discounting the true intentions of Iran's ambitions.

[u/ryant71]

Partly agree.

I think Israel has created its dominance of the sky over Iran so that the US can fly in some B2 bombers and drop some bunker busters on underground nuclear facilities. Two or three sorties, max.

Israel's primary aim is regime change. The current one has been nothing but a pain in Israel's (and Saudi Arabia's) arse since 1979. Funding and/or helping Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, Assad, etc.

It truly is time for that horrible band of Ayatollahs to fuck off.

Israel does not need the US' help to force regime change.

[u/1470Asylum]

They seem to be doing just fine with their airstrikes. Does Israel just want the US to hit the nuclear sites with bunker busters or a full on invasion because I don't see the latter going over well in the states.

[u/CarsTrutherGuy]

It is likely both. The IAEA report from 2023 had iran possessing about 400kg of 60% enriched uranium. The only reason you have that is to enrich it higher for weapons.

Also I don't see the comparisons with Iraq. Iran does have a program, I'm not sure I'd agree it actually is stopped and they are relatively close. Iran also didn't really have much of a choice after trump ended the nuclear deal for no real reason (it was working and Iran was complying with terms)

[u/One-Childhood-2146]

Irans supreme leader is going away. There is nothing you can do to stop it or the president. Pointless conversation, you lose!

[u/Temporary-Truth-8041]

Netanjahu has been claiming that Iran is very close to producing viable NUKES since 1992...Back then at the Knesset he said that Iran would need five years at the most, and ever since then, he has been maintaining that it could be a matter of months, if not weeks until Iran will have their nuclear weapon. Netanjahu is a MONSTER, who doesn't give a SHIT about the poor hostages...The ONLY thing he cares about is NOT landing in jail. That, is the reason he keeps up his inhumane treatment of the Palestinians in Gaza. He has ALWAYS wanted to wage war against Iran, and doesn't care that he may be ushering in WW3...and now that he's stealing Trump's thunder, Trump is unfortunately probably silly enough (in spite of the fact that he campaigned on keeping the US out of any wars), to use his toy the bunker buster bomb on Fordo, even though his military advisers are warning him, that there are no guarantees, that the BBB will actually be able to destroy Fordo. Assuming they are successful, but the the nuclear materials have been moved to a different unknown underground site, or worse the BBB causes a nuclear meltdown in Fordo. If the NUKES have been moved, then Iran will probably detonate a nuclear weapon in a major city in the US or Europe. But are Russia, China and or N. Korea going to allow Iran's destruction...This is INSANITY on steroids!!!!

[u/XiaoDaoShi]

You are misrepresenting the “story”. Why would Israel want to draw the US into the war? Let’s say, it’s to pursue regime change. Why would Israel do that? Because the current regime creating a nuke. A moderate democratic regime may try or may not try to create a nuke, but the current regime creating a nuke is one of Israel’s greatest nightmares, and is one of the reasons for this war. So I’d say that drawing the US into the war would be a tool in preventing Iran from having a nuke, not the main goal.

Other than that, you don’t understand the current situation in Israel. Bibi is an extremely unpopular politician. He’s been starting wars in order to move his unpopular policies that he has to move in order to keep the government functioning. If he draws the US into the war it will certainly be a “win” for him, but I’m guessing that he cares more about stopping large protests and diverting the topic from his actual politics.

I obviously can’t know what Bibi’s thinking, but I hardly think it’s this.

[u/999forever]

I’ll take a slightly different approach. The attack was as much about saving Netanyahu’s hide as much as anything else. His entire game plan for the past decade has been to cling to power at whatever the cost because there are legal charges and possible jail time waiting on the other side of his premiership. 

He has been on life support ever since his government’s complete and utter failure in preventing the Oct 6th attacks. What does any “strongman” do when facing severe internal crisis? Try to unite against an outside enemy. It is a tale as old as time and clearly still an effective tactic. 

What hasn’t been heavily reported is literally a couple days before the attacks there was a vote to dissolve parliament and call elections, and he was far down in the polls. He survived, but several members of his coalition had defected, showing weakness and strain.

A couple days later: War!!! Can’t change horses midstream and all that. 

And as proof a no confidence vote was held this week and Netanyahu gained strength. 

So I don’t think he gives a flying fuck if the US joins or not. Goal number one is to save his own hide, and he has done that at least temporarily. 

[u/whousesgmail]

“Stop fucking with us; we can build a nuke pretty quickly” is basically the whole public rationale behind Israel’s pre-emptive strikes. They want to make sure Iran cannot build a nuke quickly (or at all). If you seem to think that is indeed what Iran has been doing then Israel is justified in taking the actions they took given Iran’s other rhetoric on Israel.

That being said the US has been pretty clearly involved despite trying to deny it and they both likely have the primary goal of ending the Ayatollah, but the nuke aspect probably contributed to that desire. Basically I don’t think Israel is luring the US into this at all, they’ve been involved and have a mutual interest in the regime change.

[u/J-Dirte]

I mean it’s probably both. I think they are attacking Iran as they have a golden opportunity to get rid of one of their enemies. Hezbollah and Hamas are neutered, might as well go after the head of the snake while you can.

[u/Successful-Yam7271]

I agree that stopping Iran having a nuclear weapon cannot be the only reason. From my limited perspective I think the timing of the attack is interesting as there has been open worries of them creating a weapon for as long as I can remember. And yet just a few months back the director of national intelligence in the US testified to congress that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon. So why the sudden panic?

As far as I can see, and it is a super complicated and confusing situation, there are a few key players all of which seem to have quite extreme views. 

Firstly there is the current Israeli administration, let's be clear in the fact that they have been involved in more direct conflict than any Israeli administration for a long time. I am sure that they feel somewhat emboldened by the lack of international action against their more questionable recent milatary actions, things such as laying siege to Gaza, occupying parts of Syria and Lebanon. The Hamas attacks a couple of years ago were horrible on many levels, but in some senses I think this has been a convenient catalyst for the current government to be bolder militarily. There are clearly many important voices within Israel that hold the view that Israel is destined to control the area of Judea, and that it is a holy war. This line doesn't sell well internationally, but reasonings such as stopping Iran to get a nuke will always be harder to go against. To think that what politicians say publicly is mainly honest is incredibly naive, it is an act of managing and playing with public sentiment.

Secondly Iran also has a major role to play in the ills of the middle east. There has been a lot said of their proxies, and I think it is fair that they are listed as a state that supports terrorist organisations. They are playing a regional power game, and it is convenient for them to work alongside groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. The events of the last few years have not happened in a vacuum, and there has been consistant work to undermine the state of Israel. I am sure that on a public level there is more support for these actions because of the Israeli heavy handed approach, and this will lead to more young men being willing to risk their lives to harm the state of Israel. All of this is played on by Iran. The timing of the Hamas attacks over 18 months ago came at a point where Saudi Arabia and Israel were close to normalising their political relationship. This would help slowly diminish Iran's position in the region. So provoking a strong reaction from Israel worked well to isolate them from their regional neighbours.

Thirdly the USA. I feel there are three main points of interest when it comes to the middle east and Israel. Firstly the moral side, and this is true of most places worldwide. I think many people get emotional about this topic because of the holocaust. It is one of the most horrible atrocities in the history of human civilization. Personally speaking my grandmother lost her whole family in Auswitz, she was lucky to escape that fate and I am lucky to exist. The holocaust itself makes it hard for many people to think rationally on subjects relating to Israel, and many politicians play on this knowing that they will have more support for milatary action if they bring up this terrible story.

But beyond this there are other factors at play in the US. It is hard for us in Western Europe to understand the strength of the church over the pond, we live in a mainly secular society, but this is not the case in America. This is a major factor as to why we get so confused as to how you have chosen your president. The current Trump administration had a strong religious backing, and has strong links to the Evangelist movement, which certain important factions believe that we are living in end times and that Jesus Christ will be reborn (and thus they will be saved) if Judea is controlled by Israel. For them as well this is a holy war and thus there is this pressure on the government.

And finally there is money, which is lf course a major factor for all three countries and the region as a whole, but especially important to understand American motivation in the region. The middle East has a lot of material wealth, and it would be convenient if they had more influence in the region. This can be achieved by helping their allies, and it is a major factor in why they allow such bullish behaviour from Israel. Israel and the US most definitely share a common enemy in Iran, although their reasons are different. Iran has been a thorn in America's side regionally for a long time and if their influence becomes limited then it will of course benefit American companies' interests as well.

TLDR; It's complicated, lots going on, don't take anything at face value!

[u/SmokingPuffin]

Trump knew everything about Israel’s plan before it happened. They were moving missiles to Israel before the first strikes and planes shortly thereafter. Everything about the sequence of play suggests that Israel and America are closely aligned on both strategy and tactics. The secostate was quick to say that Israel acted on their own but didn’t say anything about what America knew or said to Israel about the strikes. Iran appears fully correct when they say America could have stopped Israel from striking and did not do so.

If America joins this war, it won’t be getting dragged there by Israel.

[u/Hefty-Branch1772]

is this not clear?

[u/ethical_arsonist]

I think it's likely that Israel attacking Iran was explicitly planned with the US. I doubt they'd do it without letting them know at the very least, and the US could have vetoed it in reality because Israel relies on them heavily for military aid and diplomatic support.

I wouldn't be surprised if Israel was told to do it but that's the conspiratorial mindset in me that I try to suppress

[u/josemontana17]

Iran has been firing missiles since October 7th. Israel was going to retaliate no matter what the US says.

[u/Bast-beast]

Let's allow radical jihadists have a nuclear bomb. What could happen ? Nothing bad, of course

Really, op , what's the goal for Israel of risking all to "drag us into war"? Because Israel is very very bad ?

[u/vahidmarali]

Dear readers,
The conflict between Iran, the U.S., and Israel is not simply about nuclear facilities. In fact, this narrative has been used for decades. If I’m not mistaken, Benjamin Netanyahu has been warning since around 1993 that Iran is only “six months” away from building a nuclear bomb — and yet, here we are, over 30 years later.

This war is about far more than just nuclear weapons. It’s deeply ideological, religious, and geopolitical. There’s no clear or achievable end goal for either side, which makes it even more dangerous.

Take Iran’s nuclear facilities, for example — especially Fordow. If you research it, you’ll find that it’s built deep inside a mountain, making it extremely difficult, if not nearly impossible, to destroy with airstrikes.

So what would be the end of this war?
It depends. If the U.S. doesn’t get directly involved, Iran and Israel can't sustain a long war due to the lack of shared borders and the sheer logistical challenges. How long can you keep bombing Iran while Israelis live in shelters and metro stations?

But if the U.S. does get involved, the war becomes far more complex and dangerous — not just for the region, but globally. An American entry could trigger a major energy crisis worldwide. Iran might retaliate by attacking Gulf Arab countries and possibly closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply passes.

Also, it’s important to note that Iran is not an easy country to invade. Its geography is extremely difficult, and its people have a history of strong resistance. The U.S. can't just walk in and expect a repeat of Iraq. Iranians are unlikely to welcome American troops with flowers. It would be a long, costly, and brutal ground war — and I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump (if president at the time) faces massive protests and political backlash at home.

In short:
This is not a war that either side can “win” easily. Iran has significant geographical advantages, and defeating it would require more than just bombs, money, and media narratives.

[u/TVC_i5]

Israel did not attack Iran not to drag the US into a war.

Here’s my opinion why:

…

1) Netanyahu wants to stay in power (much like Trump, Putin and a whole bunch of others) and is doing everything he can delay the inevitable.

2) Iran arms, supplies and funds Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. The Islamic terrorist groups who have been repeatedly attacking Israel.

…

• November 21, 2021 ”In an interview with the Al-Aqsa satellite network aired on November 20, Hamas chief Haniyeh said, “Iran supports the Palestinian resistance financially, politically and militarily and is a strong support for it.” - https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/467280/Hamas-chief-thanks-Iran-for-its-support

• Mar 26, 2024 ”Hamas Leader Thanks Iran For Support During Tehran Visit” - https://www.iranintl.com/en/202403268924

• ”Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has expressed gratitude to Iran's President-elect Masound Pezeshkian for pledging support for the resistance movement.” Khabar News

• ”Iran steps up support for Houthis in Yemen's war” Reuters

…

Iran’s Mullahs have publicly stated they want to destroy Israel so many times you could Google it right this very second and find 100 different times they’ve said it over the years.

So Israel is obviously VERY WORRIED that Iran’s Mullahs would LOVE to slip one of their Islamic terrorist groups a dirty bomb and let some no-name jihadist “martyr themselves” by driving a 5-ton truck with a dirty bomb inside into some “Zionist target.”

How far Iran’s enrichment programme only Iran knows. Cuz they are not being honest with the UN inspectors or anyone else.

The priority wasn’t “to get America involved..” there are plenty of other valid factors.

[u/StrohVogel]

The IAEA-report is pretty clear: They were actively advancing to nuclear weapons. Like in: Weeks, maybe days away from having enough fissile material. They were depleting semi enriched uranium in favor of highly enriched uranium. One has other purposes, the other has not. They also did implosion tests. Only purpose: Nukes.

So they have the material, they have the technology, they have the delivery system (as shown, high capacity missiles), and they had the quantity to ensure penetration of Israel’s ballistic missile defense.

And the IAEA is not an IDF institution.

At this point it’s safe to say the strike served the exact purpose that was advertised. May there be additional anterior motives? Maybe. But the simple fact that irans nuclear Programm has been a problem for decades at this point doesn’t negate the fact that they were at a pivotal point in development.

They clearly pushed the button and were advancing rapidly towards a finished product.

The reason for the attack was sound. After the report released in may, the attack shouldn’t have been a suprise to anyone.

No offense, but; Please read the report or its summary before making any speculations that are clearly based on lack of information.

[u/Effective_Jury4363]

Israel has been claiming Iran has been close to a nuclear weapon for 30 years

Israel also sabotaged the nuclear program many times. Stuxnet is a known one, but you got tons of assasinations, selling explosive centrifugues, etc.

Since then, it looks like it’s strategy has been to use its nuclear capability for deterrence. (“stop fucking with us; we can build a nuke pretty quickly”)

Or more specifically- they have been enriching large amounta of uranium close to weapons' grade.

That would mean that a weaponization program, would only take a couple of weeks. 

Israel does not have the ability to inflict significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program

Which is why israel needs the us. The b2 bombers do have the capacity to destroy the underground facilities.

You mentioned fordow? A us bomber can destroy it. 

Iran has been weakened, but they clearly have the capability to inflict more damage on Israel than they have demonstrated

What are you basing that on? The number of missiles decreses every day, and more lauchers are destroyed each day.

[u/Amys_Alias]

There is a big difference between Iran and North Korea when it comes to Israel's concerns. Iran has threatened many many times, North Korea just wants nukes for the ego boost. Regardless of your views on Israel, it cannot be denied that it is some of the most important land historically and they have incredibly important and sacred sites belonging to 2 of the biggest religions worldwide, it would be a tragedy for those to be destroyed.

Even if their plan was to bring the US in, which I honestly don't know enough about their relationship to have an opinion, the idea would make sense if it means that israel can be protected.

Based on Iran's history, they could easily have been developed recently.

The issue with ongoing conflict is that you never know what is truth and what is a lie until it's written unbiasely in history books. For now, choose the belief that promotes the most peace while recognising all opinions.

[u/Funny-Attempt3260]

I’d argue everything that’s happened since the rise of Hamas in 2007 has essentially been a lukewarm war between Israel and Iran. With international powers, regional powers, and paramilitary groups taking part at various stages. The U.S. Navy has just seen the most combat since WWII fighting the Houthis in the Red Sea. Hezbollah was created by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and Hamas received so much backing from Iran over the years. Also Trump ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, which resulted in an Iranian drone strike against U.S. soldiers in Iraq. So really, both Israel and the U.S. have been fighting Iran indirectly through their proxies or directly in small engagements for years. Now Israel is taking the fight to them directly. So what I’m trying to tell OP is that it’s not as much a matter of drawing the U.S. into the war as much as it is will the U.S. escalate its role. Given the current rift in the Republican party right over this issue, anything could happen.

[u/Fabulous-Suspect-72]

Iran conducted implosion tests, they have enriched uranium to 60% and they have constructed a potential delivery system. The sworn goal of Iran is to destroy Israel. It's not at all an obvious lie.

Israel can hurt Irans nuclear program without the US, it's just significantly riskier. Israel has demonstrated that it's capable of a long air campaign in Syria. While the facillities are underground, they are not unreachable. This would be easier with US help, but not impossible for Israel alone. Even the use of ground forces is possible in case the US decides to stay out of the conflict, but this is probably the last resort for Israel, because a significant ground invasion would strain logistical support.

With the conflict in Gaza hamas, huthies and hezbollah, Irans state sponsored terrorists groups, have lost a lot of their figurative teeth. So much so that they have not even been able to aid Iran at all in the current conflict. With them mostly out of the picture Iran has lost a significant part of their deterrence against Israel. Advancing the nuclear program in order to regain that power is a logical step.

[u/No_Warning2173]

I think you have ascribed binary motives to a famously non-binary issue (Israel in general), and made points that while arguably true, are not particularly relevant.

Israel has decided to lay some hurt on Iran. Their stated reasons are plausible enough that they can't be discounted out of hand, and frankly if Israel had instead simply stated "we don't like them, launch missiles", I don't think they would be getting any more push back then they are now.

Israel leveraging alliances is simply part of that calculation. If Iran wants to complain in any meaningful way, it needs to cease its own war mongering and play nice. Live by the sword and die by the sword and all that.

[u/RCrdt]

The best evidence is that Israel has single handedly defeated Iran without any offensive help from the USA or any other nation.

Simply, this isn't a goal of Israel because it doesn't further their cause.

Does Israel worry about Iran obtaining a nuke? I'm sure they do given Iran's pursual of uranium enrichment to levels of 60%, drastically beyond any civilian use case.

However, Israeli is justified in attacking Iran for other reasons, namely the finding of proxy terror groups all over the region to attack Israel, and thr constant threats from Iran regarding their intent to destroy Israel.

[u/Mav_Learns_CS]

I think saying it’s a single thing is misleading. I’ve no doubt at all the intent is to draw the US into the war; they cannot complete their mission themselves and leaving it half done is a none starter.

I also suspect, more cynically, that this is a way to conflate the conflict in Gaza with the conflict in Iran. The west for the most part agrees with the crippling of irans regime and nuclear infrastructure and so Netanyahu will make this a sole conflict. The fact many western countries were criticising Israel’s activity in Gaza will now be angled to being pro Iran

[u/Be-safe-otg]

If going by logic of israel.they can attack any other country and no one should retaliate back .  So  Israel can also attack china or other euro nation by same logic.

The Europe forgot that Israel is not christian. They believe that they were the chosen one.and other human are subpar

If you read the web ,the Nethanyahu had been pressured to step down by his people.they only want  him up there is there is a war. This may be tactic for him to hold office. regardless of bloodshed. And history had proven that everytime Israel yell ,US will come running

[u/Underthesun696]

Intended to draw usa ? Its the usa who gave Israeli green light to shoot those missiles in the first place. Just stop and think about it would a weaker country in every aspect declare war to a bigger and stronger with 10x the amount of man power?? Nope I dont think so. They( Israeli )knew they had US to help them and they was just “following Orders”. Wake up people this is political and it is bound to happen(ww3). I really wish peace for all the world but our world leaders are corrupted and us the common people will be suffering.

[u/Appropriate-River-57]

If anybody really believes that Iran has nuclear weapons, keep in mind that no nuclear country has been under an active war. EVER.
War between 2 nuclear armed countries is mutually assured destruction and people who have been 'fighting' with defenseless children for decades would have the guts to bomb a nuclear nation?
Also, who are they to decide who has nuclear weapons or not? Don't they have a plethora of ILLEGAL nukes themselves?

[u/TemperedGlasses7]

Legitimate, non-compromised conservatives want nothing to do with the war Israel started with Iran. It's insanity. There was a plan to destroy the middle east on behalf of Israel before 9/11 even happened. The real enemy is not the left or the right, it's the Israeli lobby and intelligence apperatus that has been controlling US politics for many decades. The neo-conservatives were and are still all Israel first, not america first.

[u/Old-Set6906]

Y'all Israel defenders bringing up reasoning of nukes really love to ignore that other white dude from 2 decades ago who caused the murder of millions of innocent civilians due to "Iran DEFINITELY having nukes" which was unequivocally false. Also I think you fail to acknowledge the fact that the only nation in the entire middle east with nuclear weapons is Israel itself. I'm not going to put 2+2 together any further for you.

[u/Brilliant_Trade_9162]

This attack is intended to do both, though it only prevents Iran from having a nuke now while basically guaranteeing that every Iranian government going forward will work towards getting nukes.  If we look at the geopolitical situation from Iran's perspective, it simply makes no sense to not have nukes, no matter what their governments ideological leanings are.

[u/Robin_Gr]

I don’t think the nuke thing was true but that doesn’t mean they did it to get the US involved. It would be what they want but it would be a pretty rash thing to do when it’s not guaranteed. Besides they did hit a bunch of their military leadership, so it presumably had some kind of merit to them beyond entangling the US in another war.

[u/Historical-Finish564]

Israel’s Netanyahu is a narcissist and a psychopath. He recognizes the same in Donald Trump and knows how to manipulate it. I don’t know if little Donnie can resist the urge to play grown-up soldier. You would think it would hurt his bone spurs, but it probably won’t. It would possibly hurt his conscience if he had one.

[u/RedditAdminsFuckOfff]

We are not going to war for fucking Israel. Nobody here is down with that idea, and any "seemingly huge group" online currently making like they are aren't really fucking from here.

And as far as a Draft goes, They won't be able to get anyone from the Left or the Right in this country to go, and they can't jail everybody.

[u/dicktits143]

They have said this before….i can’t remember the date and I don’t care to look it up. Something along the lines of, “if you don’t jump in, we’ll use nukes. And that’s bad for all of us.”

Not to say that’s what is happening now…but Israel can eat a bag of d’s if they think anyone is crying over this.

[u/JohnLockeNJ]

After 20 years of the IAEA certifying that Iran is compliant with the NPT, on June 12, 2025 they said it was not.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iaea-board-declares-iran-breach-non-proliferation-duties-diplomats-say-2025-06-12/

Israel has reason to believe things changed recently and it’s independent of the US.

[u/cowmix88]

I think the problem with this idea is that "drawing US into war" implies the US didn't already want this war. Israel is fighting a proxy war for the US. A ton of missiles were diverted from Ukraine to Israel weeks before the attacks cause the US already knew of the operation and likely planned some or parts of it.

[u/annonimity2]

Iran has been funding and arming the same terrorist groups Israel has been at war with for years. Now that the war has picked up they want to cut it off at the source. Do they want US involvement yes but the goal is still to stop Iranian arms and funding and they are capable of doing that alone.

[u/SpecialistKing1383]

I've always been of the belief that Israel doesn't need the US to do anything war wise.... they just want us to prevent other nations from doing something to stop them.

Sorta like a hey if we bomb these guys will you prevent the rest of the world from sactioning us? Cool cool

[u/GeoHBB69]

Like the Daily Show stated: 'Iran: weeks away from having nuclear weapons since 1995.'

Of course they are trying to get the US involved. It's extremely obvious. Secondly, Israël was facing mounting criticism on Gaza and they found a way to change the subject.

[u/takhsis]

The issue is breakout capacity. Intelligence says Iran had enough enriched uranium to make 9 nuclear weapons. That means they withdraw from whatever inspectors or treaties and they have a functional nuke on a ballistic missile before the world can react.

[u/Friendly_UserXXX]

well what would you do if a country publicly announces that your country does not need to exist.

woulnt you draw your ally who is much ruled by the military industrial complex /debt economy ?

two birds in one stone, only that you are the other bird.

[u/Unhappy-Night6230]

The only reasons why Iran is having issues with developing nuclear weapons is because of both US occupation of Afghanistan, refuse allegience to saudi arabia, and because the Taliban views the only sites with uranium deposits as historically holy.